By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN

In the last decade, North-Korea has boosted the mass production of conventional and nuclear missiles, which have become a matter of serious concern to the international community as it not only threatens the Korean Peninsula but also other countries such as Japannand the United States. This has become a big issue especially after IAEA found North Korea in non-compliance with Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which North Korea withdrew from in 2013.

For more than three decades, the ROK government and relevant countries have made intensive efforts to resolve this issue. Although, North Korea has declared that their nation has entered the point where there is no turning back from becoming a nuclear superpower. South Korea and U.S. is trying their best to bring North Korea to the agreement of “the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.”

History

North Korea’s Nuclear program started near 1960s, when the Soviet Union assisted North Korea with the construction of Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center and in 1970s they got access to Plutonium by learning the reprocessing technology from the Soviet Union. After that, North Korea ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In January 1992, both North and South Korea signed a Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, under which both countries agreed to never test and use nuclear material for non-peaceful purposes. Both countries also agreed to mutual inspections for verification, but they were never able to reach an agreement on implementation.

However, North Korea was not loyal to the treaty. Later in 1992, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raised concerns about the country’s plutonium stockpiles. North Korea refused to cooperate with IAEA in order to clarify any discrepancy, due to which in 1993, IAEA declared that North Korea was in non-compliance with its NPT and might be using the nuclear grade Plutonium for non-civilian purposes. After two decades, North Korea formally declared the Joint Declaration void in January 2013.

In 1994 the leaders of U.S. and North Korea made an agreement to stop their Plutonium development program in exchange of 2 light water reactor for energy production. But this agreement broke in the Bush administration due to illicit uranium enrichment program found in North Korea, due to which U.S. decided to stop the energy deal with North Korea. After few years in 2003, North Korea withdrew from the NPT and restart nuclear activities.

After the withdrawal of North Korea from NPT, the six-party talks were arranged with both the Koreas, Russia, China, Japan, and the United States. In September 2005, the six party talks had its major success by making North Korea agree to abandon its nuclear weapons activities and return to the NPT. Under the 2005’s the six party talks agreement, North Korea disabled its plutonium reactor at Yongbyon in 2007 and allowed IAEA inspectors into the country and North Korea received oil in return. However, due to increased tensions, North Korea again declared in April 2009 that it would no longer be bound by agreement of the six party talks.

North-Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal

It is estimated that as of 2024, North Korea has 50 warheads. The has the stockpile of nearly 70-90 nuclear material for weapon production. It is also estimated that they have around 280-1500 kg of highly enriched uranium and 60-80 kg of nuclear grade Plutonium. Although, because of the clandestine nature of the North Korean, these estimation is highly uncertain due to lack of information on the nuclear material enrichment facilities. Therefore, nothing can be said for sure.

According to the experts, North Korea’s 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests likely used plutonium because by that time North Korea already had enough Plutonium to use in the weapon. After announcing the Joint Declaration void in January 2013, North Korea restarted its Yongbyon 5MWe Reactor for plutonium production in April 2013 and declared that reactor is ‘fully operational’ by the end of August 2015. This reactor is capable of producing 6 kg of weapon grade plutonium per year. It has been confirmed by the satellite images that the production activities have increased.

North Korea has the ability to produce the weapon grade Uranium by using gas centrifuge technology. North-Korea has declared only one uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon enrichment facility estimated to have 4000 centrifuge. Although, it can be predicted from the satellite images that North Korea has extended around 1000 more centrifuges. It is believed that North-Korea might have constructed second enrichment facilities in Kangson. Because of which, in 2022, United Nations listed Kangson as a “suspected clandestine uranium enrichment facility.”

Missile technology of North-Korea

North Korea’s started its ballistic missile program in the late 1970s and early 1980s, by reverse-engineering the acquired Soviet Scud-type missiles from Egypt. Besides land based ballistic missiles, North Korea has successfully tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile, the Pukguksong-1. In addition to this, North Korea also has a Space Launch Vehicle, the Unha, which based on technology of their ballistic missiles. North Korea have also tested its first hypersonic missile in September 2021, the Hwasong-8, which possess a big challenge to missile defense systems due to their speed and maneuverability. However, North Korea is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

In 2006, North Korea did their first underground nuclear testing, estimated around 1-2 kilotons of explosion yield. After the first test in 2006, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 1718, enacting a variety of multilateral sanctions and demanding that Pyongyang return to the NPT and halt its nuclear weapons activities. They tested total seven of short, medium and long range ballistic missiles, between 2006 and 2017. However, North Korea performed more than seventy ballistic and cruise missile tests by the end of 2022. This was continued by North Korea in 2023 and 2024, with ICBMs caring maximum range of 15000 km. These tests triggered condemnation from the countries such as United States, United Nations, Japan, and South Korea.

North Korea has not only been making missiles but have been a big part of the global missile trade. They are one of the largest supplier of missiles in the East-Asian and West-Asian countries, including Myanmar, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen. North Korea has also helped Syria to build an undeclared nuclear reactor, which was destroyed by Israeli airstrike in 2007, while the reactor was still under construction. North Korea also allegedly attempted to sell graphite rods to Syria in 2012.However, missile export of North Korea has reduced significantly due to sanctions from U.S. and U.N. on the bases of resent missile development in North-Korea.

Future prospects

In January 2016, North Korea declared its nuclear doctrine that they would not use nuclear weapons first in a conflict unless its sovereignty was under direct threat and committed to “strive for the global denuclearization.” However, in September 2022, North Korea updated its nuclear doctrine in which they enumerated the circumstances under which North Korea would use nuclear weapons first in a conflict. North Korea considered some scenarios, such as “taking the initiative in war” and preempting a “fatal military attack against important strategic objects.” This new nuclear doctrine also stated that the nation’s leader, Kim Jong Un has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons and a nuclear strike will be conducted automatically if the country’s leadership is targeted.

Kim Jong Un has declared that North-Korea will continue mass production of ICBMs with nuclear payloads to give their country a “quick nuclear counterstrike” capability. Kim gave the reasoning for the mass production of ICBMs as a necessary action to counter South Korea’s “preparations for war” and “worrying military moves” by the United States and other hostile forces targeting North Korea. Kim’s announcement for the mass production of missiles came after South Korea updated the five-year defence plans specifically designed to counter the threat from Pyongyang’s nuclear missiles. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol also announced the creation of a new drone unit after North Korean unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) flew into South Korean airspace.

The future of North Korea has always been a part of big concern specially to U.S. and South Korea. The willingness of North Korea to denuclearize has long been questioned because it views its nuclear deterrent as necessary to protect the Kim regime and the state. Kim Jong Un said that the country’s status as a nuclear weapons state “has now become irreversible” and that there will “never be any declaration of giving up our nukes or denuclearization” in future negotiations.

Conclusion

Complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula might never be possible. Considering North-Korea has already declared that their nation has entered the point where there is no turning back from becoming a nuclear power. North Korea also has support from Russia including reprocessing technology, missiles technology and space research. North Korea considers United States as one of the biggest threats to the Kim regime and to the state safety. South Korea playing a big part against North Korea’s nuclear issue has worsened the relations between South Korea and North Korea. Which makes it even hard for North Korea to consider complying with the U.S. and to restart nuclear talks.

South-Korea not only trying their best to denuclearize North-Korea because they are the neighbouring country but also because it is causing friction with United States. The ROK government aims to establish sustainable peace regime through dialogue and diplomacy. Furthermore, as a key stakeholder in the North Korean nuclear issue, the ROK will lead international cooperation to create a strategic environment that leaves North Korea no option but to return to the path of denuclearization.