By: Tanuja Baura, Research Analyst, GSDN

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance created in 1949 to balance the Soviet military presence in central and eastern Europe after World War II. Following the Cold War, NATO redefined itself as a cooperative security organization and now includes 32 member countries.

The core of NATO’s mission is outlined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, also known as the Washington Treaty, which established the alliance on April 4, 1949. Over the years, many countries have joined NATO, including Greece and Turkey in 1952, West Germany in 1955 (later unified as Germany in 1990), Spain in 1982 and many others up to the most recent additions of Finland in 2023 and Sweden in 2024.

France did stay in NATO but not for a long time draw out from its unified military command in 1966. It rejoined the military command structure in 2009.  

Historical Background

After World War II ended in 1945, Western Europe was left economically devastated and militarily weak Meanwhile, communist parties grew stronger in France and Italy. On the other hand, the Soviet Union emerged with a powerful military, controlling central and eastern Europe. By 1948, Moscow-backed communists had taken over the governments in these areas and eliminated all non-communist political activities, leading to what became known as the Iron Curtain—a term made famous by Winston Churchill—that divided communist East from democratic West. Cooperation between the Western Allies and the Soviet Union broke down completely, and each side controlled its part of occupied Germany, leading to the formation of two German states: West Germany and East Germany.

In 1948, the US launched the Marshall Plan, providing substantial economic aid to Western and Southern European countries if they worked together on their recovery. Militarily, the Brussels Treaty of 1948 established the Western European Union, a defence pact among the UK, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. However, it soon became clear that a stronger alliance was needed to counter the Soviet threat.

At the same time, Britain, Canada, and the US began secret discussions about a new security arrangement, as the United Nations was becoming ineffective due to Cold War tensions. Following a communist takeover in Czechoslovakia in February 1948, these countries, along with France, the Low Countries and Norway, began working on a collective defence agreement to strengthen Western security and promote democratic values. These discussions led to the creation of NATO in April 1949 with the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Current Challenges to NATO Unity

NATO is facing major challenges in political, financial and security areas. Politically, the upcoming US presidential elections bring uncertainty. Donald Trump’s comments about potentially ending the Russia-Ukraine War quickly and his threats to encourage Russia to act aggressively if European NATO members don’t increase their contributions are casting doubt on the unity between the US and Europe.

This situation not only undermines the progress made by the Biden administration in supporting Ukraine but also risks straining trans-Atlantic unity.

Despite NATO’s proven resilience and growth from its original 12 members to 32, including recent additions like Finland and Sweden, its effectiveness goes beyond just expanding its membership. The alliance must manage diverse political interests and maintain unity and collective action, especially during crises.

NATO also faces the challenge of adapting to new threats from emerging technologies and innovations. As it looks toward the Indo-Pacific region, it must address threats like cyber warfare, terrorism and hybrid tactics to stay competitive against China and other adversaries.

Finally, Ukraine’s possible membership, as recently suggested by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, could be a game-changer for NATO. It could either bring Russia to the negotiating table or push Europe closer to nuclear conflict. How NATO handles these issues will shape its role and influence in global security in the years to come

The role of the US and European allies

Relations between NATO and the EU were formalized in the early 2000s, following steps taken in the 1990s to increase European responsibility in defence. NATO and the EU have complementary and reinforcing roles in maintaining international peace and security. Building strong European defence capabilities is crucial for enhancing security in the Euro-Atlantic area and for sharing the defence burden across the Atlantic. As these capabilities are developed, NATO allies need to ensure that efforts are coordinated, complementary and free of unnecessary overlap.

Close NATO-EU cooperation is essential for a comprehensive international approach to managing crises and operations, combining military and civilian resources. Both NATO and the EU strongly condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and support Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and right to self-defence.  NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, which outlines the Alliance’s strategic goals, recognizes the European Union as a vital partner and calls for a stronger strategic partnership.

In January 2023, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, European Council President Charles Michel, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed the third Joint Declaration on EU-NATO Cooperation to strengthen their relationship by building on the accomplishments established since the 2016 and 2018 declarations. Currently, NATO and EU share 23 member nations. For the partnership to thrive, it’s crucial that non-EU NATO Allies are fully involved in EU defence efforts.

US-NATO relations

NATO was the first military alliance the United States joined outside of its own territory. After World War II, European countries were focused on rebuilding their economies and ensuring their security. Economic recovery required significant aid to rebuild industries and produce food, while security concerns were centred on the threat of a resurgent Germany or Soviet aggression.

The US believed that a strong and unified Europe was essential to prevent the spread of communism. To support this, Secretary of State George Marshall proposed a significant economic aid program, known as the Marshall Plan, which not only helped rebuild Europe’s economy but also encouraged cooperation between Europe and the US The Soviet Union’s refusal to participate in the Marshall Plan or allow its Eastern European allies to do so, deepened the divide between Eastern and Western Europe.

In the late 1940s, several events heightened concerns about security in Western Europe and increased US involvement in European affairs. The civil war in Greece and tensions in Turkey led President Truman to promise economic and military aid to these countries and others resisting oppression. A Soviet-backed coup in Czechoslovakia brought a communist government to power on Germany’s border, and there were fears of communist influence in Italy’s elections.

In Germany, the Soviets’ blockade of West Berlin in 1948, which was under Allied control but surrounded by Soviet territory, nearly led to a direct conflict between the US and the Soviet Union. The Berlin Airlift, however, managed to supply the city and prevent war. These events raised US fears that Western European countries might seek security deals with the Soviets. To prevent this, the Truman Administration considered forming an alliance between Europe and America to ensure the security of Western Europe.

The future of NATO and the alliance’s Unity

NATO’s 75th anniversary meeting in the Quincy Institute, Washington, D.C. saw top US and European analysts sharing their views on the alliance’s future. While their opinions on NATO’s past role and future direction varied widely, they all agreed that NATO is currently facing a particularly challenging and dangerous time in its history.

NATO often calls itself “the most successful alliance in history,” not because it won a war, but because it managed to deter a Soviet attack on Western Europe during the Cold War, thus preventing a new world war. However, it’s often overlooked that this success was due not just to NATO’s unity but also to its cautious approach. Successive US administrations, with full support from their European allies, resisted calls for aggressive strategies aimed at reducing Soviet influence in Eastern Europe.

After the Cold War ended, however, NATO shifted to actively reducing Russian influence, even in former Soviet states on Russia’s borders. This shift has led to a proxy conflict between NATO and Moscow on European soil. If this conflict escalates into a direct war, there’s a significant risk of nuclear confrontation, which would render questions about NATO’s future irrelevant because no one would be left to ask them.

If direct war is avoided, most analysts believe that hostility between Russia and the West will persist for the foreseeable future, with ongoing risks of conflicts near Russia’s borders, such as over Belarus’s future or Russia’s access to its Kaliningrad exclave through NATO territory in Lithuania. The severity of these threats depends largely on how the war in Ukraine concludes, whether through a negotiated peace or a prolonged, unresolved conflict.

Analysts also believe that NATO’s members will likely try to bolster their defences. especially if Donald Trump is re-elected and US support for Europe becomes uncertain. However, these rearmament efforts may be limited by economic challenges, competing budget priorities like healthcare and social welfare, and reluctance among European countries to combine their military resources. To keep the US engaged in Europe, NATO might also make efforts to expand its focus globally, including addressing China’s rise.

If the U.S. significantly reduces its presence in Europe, NATO may abandon its recent expansionist efforts and concentrate on defending its existing members, though this could lead to internal disagreements on how to handle Russia. In the coming decades, however, these growing threats could make many of NATO’s current priorities seem less significant.

Conclusion

Beyond its original purpose as a military alliance, NATO now emphasizes cooperation among multiple nations and takes a broad approach to address today’s complex challenges. However, the rapidly changing geopolitical environment requires NATO to revamp its tools and capabilities to create a comprehensive and forward-looking security strategy.

NATO faces a dynamic and complicated security challenges that requires more than just adaptability and resilience. It must deal with a mix of external challenges that don’t follow the pattern of traditional threats and internal issues, such as strained relations across the Atlantic, perceived differences in values, and rising tensions among members. These factors threaten the Alliance’s unity. Additionally, varying perceptions of threats among its members cause NATO to serve different roles depending on the country. While disagreements have historically been part of NATO’s experience, they often led to productive diplomacy. However, the current geopolitical situation demands greater unity and collective action.

This analysis examines NATO’s evolving role in an ever-changing global context, highlighting the need for the organization to rethink its strategy, boost innovation, enhance agility, and develop capabilities across multiple domains. By doing so, NATO aims to remain a key player in international security for the decades ahead.