By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN
Garry Kasparov, the Russian chess grandmaster famously quoted “At the end of the day, it’s all about money”. This quote holds quite good in any war/conflict as economics plays a pivotal role in military confrontations since wars and conflicts are a pretty expensive business.
Ending years of speculation whether Israel would attack Iran’s nuclear installations to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion” in the wee hours of June 13, 2025 on Iran’s two nuclear installations in Natanz and Isfahan apart from targeting advanced missile manufacturing sites and dismantling command structures by killing the top Iranian military leadership and nuclear scientists.
Though Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, USA had testified to the US Congress on March 26, 2025 that Iran did not have the capability to produce a nuclear weapon. Similar views were expressed by the International Atomic Energy Agency in May 2025. And yet, Israel went ahead with Operation Rising Lion.
Also, part of Operation Rising Lion was to affect the regime change in Iran by removing its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei who has been Iran’s head of state since August 06, 1989 and long perceived by Israel as its biggest threat.
It was hoped by Israel that with the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities and extensive damage that Operation Rising Lion would cause to the Iranian infrastructure and top military leadership, the Iranians would in an uprising, remove Ayatollah Khamenei from power. In the event of the Iranian uprising not happening, the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei was not ruled out by Israel.
At 12.01 am Israel Standard Time, 200 Israeli fighter jets comprising F-15, F-16 and F-35, took from various air bases of the Israeli Air Force and after flying for over two hours which included mid-air refuelling by Boeing 707 aerial refuelling tankers in the Syrian air space, they reached the border of western Iran over Iraq and positioned themselves for the mission.
At 3.30 am Iran Time, the fighter aircrafts began firing at their allotted targets and by 4.00 am Iran Time, these fighter jets were heading back home. Two hours later another wave of the Israeli fighter jets pounded their objectives in Iran. That day morning total of five waves carried out their missions in Iran. At the same time, Mossad operatives carried out drone and other covert operations in Iran.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister’s seven-minute video was released at 7.17 am Israel Standard Time in which he informed the world of Operation Rising Lion adding that the operation could last “as many days as it takes”.
Iran was hit badly and pulverised. It seemed that Iran’s collapse was imminent. But Israel had under-estimated the Iranian resilience having the 5000-year Persian Civilizational legacy and its military capacity and capability.
At 11.35 am Iran Time, “Operation True Promise 3” was launched by Iran as the retaliation to the Israeli strikes. The initial counter-attack with 100 drones comprising HESA Shahed-136 and Shahed-138 drones aimed at various Israeli cities soon to be followed by waves of ballistic missiles comprising Fattah-110, Zolfaghar and Kheibar Shekan missiles.
Soon Israel’s famed sir defence system comprising David’s Sling, Iron Dome, Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 and THAAD swung into action. Despite Israel having the world’s best known air defence system and total air superiority over Iran, for the first time since the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israel started getting pounded.
As the Iranian missiles started proving effective and Israel’s air defence system started getting saturated, death and destruction started setting in Israel.
Though the number of Israelis dying due to the Iranian onslaught was much lesser than on the Iranian side, primarily because it is mandatory in Israel since 1951 to have a bunker in all buildings, but each death of an Israeli citizen due to the Iranian missiles was a severe loss of pride and prestige for Israel.
The Israeli air defence system was having a success rate of 90% in intercepting the incoming Iranian ballistic missiles, but the 10% getting through was giving Israel nightmares.
Tel Aviv, the capital of Israel had been destroyed one-third. So much so, on June 18, 2025 just five days into Operation Rising Lion, Israel imposed strict media restrictions on both foreign and domestic journalists including approval from the Israeli Military Censor, a wing of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to publish any news related to the Iran-Israel War 2025.
Adding to Israel’s worry was that its interceptor missiles were being used faster than they could be replaced. On June 17, 2025 Wahington Post reported that with the current rate of combat, Israel could maintain its air defence for only 10-12 more days.
With Iran having an estimated arsenal of over 4000 missiles and firing about 60 missiles on an average daily, it could target Israel for more than two months comfortably.
Israel would have to replenish its missile interceptor missiles from the USA. But for how long? Iran too would replenish its ballistic missiles domestically as well as from allies like Russia, China & North Korea. Hence, this issue of expending and replenishing the interceptor & ballistic missiles wasn’t going in Israel’s favour anytime in the future.
Israel was faced with the prospect of being in a Ukraine-like situation where it would have to depend heavily on the US replenishments to fight the prolonged war with Iran. The US-located Boeing Corporation supplies Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 air defence interceptor missiles to Israel but it was having problems in manufacturing as it required rare earth minerals and magnets from China for their production. China had stopped exports of rare earth minerals and magnets to the US military contractors since April 2025 after Donald Trump had started the Tariff War.
Adding to the interceptor missiles replenishment issues was the battering the Israeli economy was getting.
Interceptor missiles were costing Israel US$ 200 million a day and building repairs estimated at US$ 400 million. For a month’s war with Iran, it would have costed Israel US$ 12 billion. The Bank of Israel has already forecast that Israel’s war with Hamas since October 07, 2023 for a two-year period till October 2025, would cost Israel US$ 55.6 billion, which is 10.81% of the Israeli economy pegged at US$ 514 billion.
Israel war with Hezbollah that lasted from October 01, 2024 to November 27, 2024 costed Israel US$ 6.67 billion.
Israel was in no economic position to continue a prolonged war with Iran and Iran was in no mood to end its war with Israel soon, despite suffering more casualties and destruction as at stake was its reputation and regional dominance.
On June 20, 2025 Iran started using Fattah-2 hypersonic missiles on Israel which has a speed of Mach 15. Hypersonic missiles can’t be intercepted by any air defence system. Only five countries in the world have hypersonic missiles – USA, Russia, China, North Korea & Iran.
Seeing the war with Iran entering the dangerous phase with the induction of hypersonic missiles, Israel turned to the US for help.
President Donald Trump wasn’t willing the enter the Iran-Israel War as he has promised the Americans in his election rallies in the 2024 US Presidential Elections that USA would not take part in any global conflict during his Presidency.
Despite the leading American think-tanks, personalities and media-houses predicting defeat for Donald Trump, the Americans voted for him overwhelmingly.
With Israel now in existential danger at the hands of its bête noire Iran and the pulls and pressures of the rich American Jews who generously contribute to both the Republicans & Democrats in any US Presidential Election, President Donald Trump gave the go-ahead to carry out military strikes on Iran.
On June 21, 2025 at 2.10 am Iran Time, the US Air Force struck at the three Iranian nuclear installations at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan under Operation Midnight Hammer. USA claimed to have totally destroyed the nuclear weapon capabilities of Iran.
But early US intelligence assessment on June 24, 2025 stated otherwise. Iran’s nuclear capabilities stood intact.
On June 23, 2025 Iran struck at the US military bases in Qatar and Iraq.
No loss of life was reported either in the US attack on Iran and the Iranian attack on the US military bases, thus giving credence to the fact that both the sides had informed each other well in advance.
From Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu calling for the Iranian regime change a few days earlier, after the Iranian attack on the US military bases in the Middle East, Donald Trump started posting “God bless Iran” and “Peace and Prosperity to both Iran & Israel” on the social media!
At 6.02 pm EST, Donald Trump announced ceasefire to be effective in various stages between Iran and Israel, bringing to an end the 12-day war between the two bitterest enemies in the Middle East on June 25, 2025.
Iran had 974 killed and 4000 injured in this war while Israel suffered 30 killed and 3238 injured with Iran suffering more material damage than Israel.
The 12-day war between Iran and Israel with a special appearance by the US failed to meet the two primary aims of the Americans and Israelis – destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapon capabilities and the regime change in Iran. Thereby, signalling the clear Pyrrhic Victory for Iran.
Iran has not only emerged stronger after its 12-day war with Israel as both the main aims of the US and Israel couldn’t be achieved, but also as the undisputed leader of the Middle East and the Islamic World.
Having pulled out from the International Atomic Energy Agency on June 22, 2025, a day after the US struck Iran, it is matter of time before Iran will acquire a nuclear weapon. Russia & China having pledged full nuclear support to Iran in the last few days, Iran possessing a nuclear weapon is not a possibility anymore, but a reality which will soon be fructified.
And the day Iran possesses the nuclear weapon, the two-state solution will too see the light of the day with Palestine emerging as an independent nation.
In the times ahead, Operation Rising Lion will badly boomerang on Israel.
