By: Soniya Bugaliya

As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Thailand to attend the 6th BIMSTEC Summit in Thailand, his very presence underscores a profound transformation in India’s foreign policy priorities, a deliberate recalibration from the once-central SAARC to the ascendant BIMSTEC. This summit in Thailand serves as a vibrant testament to BIMSTEC’s on-going vitality and sustained momentum in stark contrast to SAARC which languishes in a state of suspended animation, its summit-level engagements frozen since 2014. BIMSTEC’s recent adoption and enforcement of its charter further epitomizes its institutional invigoration, a stark counterpoint to SAARC, whose charter, dating back to 1985, presides over an organization mired in inertia. Thus, the Thailand summit solidifies BIMSTEC’s prominence as the preferred vehicle for Bay of Bengal regional cooperation, while SAARC’s relevance recedes amidst a lack of engagement.

Donald Trump’s resurgence in the US has weakened globalization, elevating regionalization as the new dominant paradigm. In South Asia, while SAARC was created to foster regional integration and development, its progress has been hampered. Consequently, India increasingly favours BIMSTEC as a more viable platform for regional cooperation. This paper will analyse India’s strategic shift by examining SAARC’s decline, the factors driving India’s focus on BIMSTEC, and SAARC’s current relevance.

The Decline of SAARC: A Victim of Geopolitical Rivalry

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), established in 1985 with the efforts of Zia-ur-Rehman, was founded with the noble aim of fostering economic and social development, cultural exchange, and regional stability among eight South Asian nations. However, SAARC’s trajectory has been marred by persistent challenges, primarily stemming from the complex and often antagonistic relationship between India and Pakistan.

The India-Pakistan rivalry has been the most significant impediment to SAARC’s effectiveness. Deep-seated mistrust and conflicting strategic interests have prevented meaningful cooperation on key issues. Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism has further strained relations with India, leading to heightened tensions and a breakdown of dialogue. The 2016 terror attack in Uri and the subsequent cancellation of the SAARC summit in Islamabad epitomize the extent to which the India-Pakistan conflict has paralysed the organization.

Beyond the India-Pakistan dynamic, SAARC has also suffered from a lack of institutional capacity, inadequate resources and varying levels of commitment from member states. Key initiatives, such as the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) signed in 2004, have made slow progress, and connectivity projects have faced significant delays. This has contributed to a perception of SAARC as an ineffective and dysfunctional grouping. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has characterized it as a “jammed vehicle”, aptly capturing the organization’s inability to convene a summit after the Uri attack in 2016.”

The Rise of BIMSTEC: A Strategic Imperative for India

In contrast to SAARC’s stagnation, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), founded in 1997 and comprising five South Asian and two South-east Asian countries, has emerged as a more promising platform for India’s regional aspirations in 21^st century. BIMSTEC’s growing importance in India’s foreign policy calculus is driven by a combination of strategic, economic, and geopolitical factors.

BIMSTEC is located in a strategic location i.e. Bay of Bengal which connects South Asia with south-east Asia. The Bay of Bengal is a crucial maritime space and part of wider Indo-Pacific region, and BIMSTEC allows India to enhance its maritime security, promote connectivity, and expand its trade links with South-east Asia and East Asia. At the 2017 BIMSTEC summit meeting, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said, “It is a natural platform to fulfil our key foreign policy priorities of Neighbourhood First and Act East”, as it connects not only South and South-east Asia, but also the ecologies of the Great Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal.

Moreover, BIMSTEC offers India a way to foster regional cooperation while circumventing the obstacles posed by Pakistan within SAARC. Since SAARC has been internally fraught, with the Indo-Pak rivalry at the heart of the organization proving to be a paralyzing deadlock. For New Delhi, the hopes of an India led model of regionalism will never be possible with Pakistan in the same grouping. Thus, the logic of convenience dictates that “SAARC minus Pakistan” is the road ahead if India wants to be a regional leader in its neighbourhood. This does not mean that BIMSTEC stands in opposition to SAARC. In fact, the Bay of Bengal community could complement SAARC efforts in promoting a South Asian free trade area. However, South Asia is incomplete without Pakistan and Afghanistan. Thus, India’s shift from SAARC to BIMSTEC is imagining its neighbourhood not from a continental, South Asian frame of reference but a maritime one, which is a corollary to its advances in the east over the years.

A point to be noted that BIMSTEC had not been on the top of Modi’s agenda until September 2016, when Pakistan based terrorists targeted the Uri base camp of the army. This terror attack jolted the government’s trust in the Pakistani leadership’s fight against terror. India then renewed its push for BIMSTEC, which had existed for almost two decades but been somewhat neglected. At the BRICS (Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa) summit in Goa, Modi also hosted an outreach summit with BIMSTEC leaders in October 2016. This gave a big push to the India–BIMSTEC relationship.

The recent India’s growing engagement with BIMSTEC is also shaped by the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region. The rise of China and its increasing assertiveness have created new challenges and opportunities for India.

Through the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has entrenched itself in BIMSTEC economies by financing ports, highways, and power projects. In Myanmar, China’s investment in the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port gives it strategic access to the Bay of Bengal. In Sri Lanka, the Hambantota port, leased to China for 99 years, exemplifies Beijing’s debt diplomacy. If India does not take decisive action, the region could gradually fall under China’s strategic influence.

Thus, having deeper ties with the littoral states and a supportive and cooperative neighbourhood as well as offering greater commitments to the region in terms of being a net-security provider would help India counter the advances that China has been making. BIMSTEC provides India with a platform to offer alternative connectivity and development initiatives, fostering a more balanced regional order and countering China’s growing influence.

Since Pakistan is not a part of BIMSTEC, India has used the organisation to isolate its neighbour diplomatically within South Asia. However, such an approach is restrictive in nature. According to a recent World Bank report, South Asia is one of the most densely populated but poorly integrated regions in the world. Its intraregional trade is less than five per cent of the total trade of South Asian countries. The report adds that although there is potential to double this figure, it will not be achieved through SAARC, as the organisation has fallen victim to the bilateral disputes between India and Pakistan. Herein lies the opportunity that BIMSTEC provides and to leverage the organisation India should focus on the connectivity projects in and around the Bay of Bengal region. This could help unleash the potential of its seven Northeast states—Myanmar’s Sittwe Port is closer to the Northeast than Kolkata. Furthermore, physical connectivity would also help India integrate with ASEAN’s Master Plan of Connectivity 2025. India has already invested in the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway, the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the BIMSTEC Motor Vehicle Agreement.

This does not mean that BIMSTEC stands in opposition to SAARC. In fact, the Bay of Bengal community could complement SAARC efforts in promoting a South Asian free trade area.

Challenges and Opportunities

While BIMSTEC presents significant opportunities for India, it also faces challenges that need to be addressed. The constraints that India faces in terms of prioritizing BIMSTEC over SAARC are two-fold.

 First, India’s prioritization of BIMSTEC has often been seen by analysts as a “rebound relationship”, which only resurfaces every time if there is talk of the need for a replacement for SAARC. The idea of BIMSTEC has generated scepticism even among leaders of member states, like Nepalese Prime Minister KP Oli and Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena, who have said that the grouping should not replace SAARC. In simple terms, BIMSTEC should have a rationale of its own along with a clear vision and actionable goals that appeal to all its members. Advancing BIMSTEC as a replacement of SAARC would only breed resistance, which could result in lack of political will on the part of member states with stakes in both groupings

The second constraint is more logistical and conceptual. BIMSTEC’s own record has been dismal in terms of concrete achievements. In over 25 years, it has only five summits to its name. Until 2014, it did not even have a Secretariat and even at present, the secretariat is severely understaffed with a paltry budget. India has to overcome the tag of underperforming in this grouping and if it has to champion regionalism with this new cartography, it has to walk the talk on its commitments.

While the shift from SAARC to BIMSTEC is a shift of convenience and necessity, its success would depend on New Delhi’s political will and its ability to deliver on its promises to its neighbours. Also, the political instability in Bangladesh and Myanmar further adds uncertainty in the region.

SAARC’s Relevance in Present Times: Potential Amidst Challenges

Despite India’s shift towards BIMSTEC, the question of SAARC’s relevance in the current geopolitical landscape remains. While SAARC has been plagued by challenges, there are arguments for its potential importance.

Scholars argues that SAARC still provides a platform for dialogue and cooperation among South Asian countries, addressing common challenges such as poverty, climate change, and disaster management. Reviving SAARC could potentially foster greater regional economic integration and connectivity, unlocking the region’s economic potential.

As former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, “success of SAARC lies in the eyes of beholder.” SAARC’s success is like a half-filled glass, it depends on our perception how we see it. For instance, since its inception SAARC has its own Charter, even it has signed SAFTA early in 2004 whereas BIMSTEC still lags in it and other initiatives includes South Asian University, South Asia satellite, SAARC food Bank , SAARC milk grid etc.

Umran Chowdhury, Research Associate at the Cosmos Foundation and the Bay of Bengal Institute in Bangladesh contrasts SAARC and BIMSTEC: “SAARC was supposed to be our version of the EU or ASEAN, whereas BIMSTEC is like a sub-regional organisation on the sidelines—like the Council of Europe or Union for the Mediterranean.”  This distinction is critical. SAARC sought to integrate South Asia in a way that mirrored the European Union’s success. However, its internal dysfunction, primarily caused by Indo-Pakistani tensions, rendered it ineffective. BIMSTEC, by contrast, has a more focused economic and strategic role, less free from SAARC’s political baggage.

Recently The Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus, head of Bangladesh’s interim government, has signalled a desire to revive SAARC. Even Pakistan has consistently pushed for SAARC’s revival. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif emphasised Pakistan’s readiness to play its part in rejuvenating the organisation, highlighting the vast untapped potential for regional development, connectivity, and cooperation among South Asian countries.

As Atal Bihari Vajpayee said, “we can change our friends, but we can’t change our neighbours.” South Asia is a basket case of all non-conventional security threats- terrorism, drug trafficking, extremism, climate change impacts. In this scenario importance of SAARC as regional organisation increases because it is the only organisation which includes all the South Asian countries. As SD Muni says “SAARC is not a history, it has to be future.” For which there is need to think regionally on the issues that impact the subcontinent as whole. India’s global ambitions depend on its capacity to convince its neighbours that India’s rise is an opportunity for them, not a threat.

However, the persistent challenges that SAARC is facing, particularly the India-Pakistan rivalry, continue to undermine its effectiveness. The lack of progress on key initiatives and the absence of regular summits raise serious questions about SAARC’s ability to deliver meaningful outcomes. Furthermore, the rise of alternative regional platforms, such as BIMSTEC, and the growing focus on bilateral and sub-regional cooperation initiatives like Bangladesh–China–India Myanmar Forum, with the proactive membership of China and BBIN have further diminished SAARC’s centrality.

Further, we still do not know if Afghanistan will be part of SAARC further complicating matters. Having the brutal Taliban regime as a SAARC member would severely tarnish the brand.

Conclusion

India’s strategic pivot from SAARC to BIMSTEC reflects the changing geopolitical landscape of South Asia and India’s evolving regional priorities. SAARC’s decline, hampered by the enduring rivalry between India and Pakistan, has created a vacuum that BIMSTEC is increasingly filling. BIMSTEC offers India a more effective platform to pursue its economic, strategic, and geopolitical interests, enhancing its connectivity, promoting regional integration, and countering the growing influence of China.

While challenges remain, BIMSTEC has the potential to play a vital role in shaping a stable, prosperous, and India-centric regional order in the Indo-Pacific. SAARC, in the meantime, faces an uncertain future, with its relevance contingent on overcoming persistent challenges and demonstrating a renewed commitment to regional cooperation. Reviving SAARC will take a lot of political capital.

As C. Rajamohan says “a nation’s destiny is linked to its neighbours”. India’s ambitions to become global power depend on its capacity to convince its neighbours that its rise is an opportunity for them, not a threat. For this, The Gujral doctrine and Neighbourhood First policy can be a way forward.