By: Pritam Sarbabidya

The concept of “Neighbourhood First” policy of India is a strategic outlook aimed at fostering cooperation with its “neighbours” with the vision of ensuring peace and stability in the region focusing intensively on areas like economy, science and technology, education etc as peace and stability at the domestic, regional, and international levels are important objectives to the pursuit of foreign policy of any country. However, in recent years this ambitious policy has challenges on its path. Over the years the turmoil in and around India, with Taliban in Afghanistan and antagonist Pakistan in the west, declared bankruptcy in Sri Lanka, Bhutan’s closeness with China, Nepal’s political turbulence, recent mayhem in Bangladesh, or the expansionist China, military rule in Myanmar, and “India-out” campaign in Maldives, each neighbour brings different issues to India’s doorstep. They have a profound effect on India’s foreign policy and security.

August 05, 2024 witnessed an unanticipated development in India’s immediate neighbour Bangladesh, where the ongoing student protest regarding quota reservation took a minacious turn on 4^th August when news flooded the media of  93 people, including 14 policemen, being killed and dozens injured during the clashes. This intensified further and what the world saw next was Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina’s unforeseen resignation and leaving the country which came as a shockwave for the entire world more intensely for India. Later on, Bangladesh Army chief announced the formation of an interim government and on August 09, 2024 an interim government was formed in Dhaka led by Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate. In the meantime, there were reports of numerous attacks on minorities, police personnel, government infrastructures as the law and order situation collapsed across the country.

For India, it’s close neighbour and strategic partner in the region, Sheikh Hasina’s exit marks a significant turning point. To put it clearly, India’s foreign policy towards Bangladesh has been largely shaped and had reached a significant height under Sheikh Hasina. The two countries collaborated on several fronts, like counter terrorism and regional connectivity. Also, trade statistics shows that in the financial year 2023-24, trade between the two countries reached US$13 billion . However, With the new government in picture with fresh players as political heads, India may expect reorientation of relationships from Dhaka. Another major concern for India can be that the possibility of an increase in extremist activities in Bangladesh that could spill over into India, thus undermining security gains made during the past decade. Also, once cannot leave alone the high possibility of refugee crisis on the bordering states of India, mainly West Bengal, Assam, Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Tripura.

Likewise, India’s another neighbour Maldives, with President Mohamed Muizzu in picture, New Delhi has watched the development of Maldives’s growing affection with China with concern. Months ago, both the nations also experienced controversy over derogatory remarks made for the Indian Prime Minister by few Maldivian politicians, which was not well taken by the Indian citizens. It led to huge noise on social media platforms. So, the table has turned in Maldives as well for India.

Moving towards Sri Lanka, the year 2022 marked a tumultuous period in Sri Lanka, with an economic crisis that transformed into social unrest. What the world saw in Bangladesh for few days, Sri Lanka went through the same phase back then – protestors stormed the President and PM’s estates and the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country. This crisis brings out the need for India to closely monitor Chinese activities in the region. From the strategic point of view, the Hambantota Port project, given as lease to China for 99 years also can be a point of worry for New Delhi with the possibility of using the same for military purpose or even keeping an eye on India.

Nepal and Bhutan on the other hand share historical ties with India and are connected to each other in the fields of deep cultural, economic, and political connections. The Indo-Nepal Treaty of Peace and friendship (1950) and the Indo-Bhutan Treaty 1949, revised in 2007 are the foundational documents that have historically governed relationships between these three countries. However, the last decade has seen a major shift, China with its growing economic knock and strategic ambitions has been making inroads into these two countries. Whether the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that was signed in 2017, or the growing investment in infrastructural projects, these two nations have been showing a significant tilt towards China. Furthermore, Nepal under KP Sharma Oli who won the election flaunting the ideas of “nationalism” , after coming to power under his administration there was an attempt to declare some of part of Indian territories as a part of Nepal by displaying constructed maps. Again, this year in the month of May, Nepal once again shown Indian territories on their currency notes.

In Bhutan, internal political situation is stable like that of its stable relationships with India. But the Chinese factor cannot be sidelined. The boundary negotiations between Bhutan and China have been an issue for years, with China making claims over Bhutanese territory. In recent years, there have been reports of China building infrastructure in disputed territories, that has raised strategic concern India. The more China make its presence in India’s neighbourhood, the more India has to prepare itself to safeguard its interest.

And when it comes to China, its expansionist policy against India is very much visible over the years. Things intensified with the 2020 Galwan valley clash and the border disputes remain unsolved.

Myanmar is already going through political chaos under the military rule of Junta, opposition leaders have been put behind bars. Case in point, the democratic leader, Aung San Suu Kyi has been kept under house arrest, earlier she was in prison. India’s relation with Myanmar has evolved with developments in the situation making a point of concern while dealing with the same. 

To India’s west, Afghanistan is ruled by radical Islamist group called “Taliban”, the group that has a history of anti-India stance, at the same time radical groups like this can encourage other extremist groups in the region against India. Then the state-in-mess Pakistan that has always maintained an anti-India position since its creation, similarly it has witnessed years of political instability where no PM has ever completed their terms in office, followed by fixed elections, ineffective democratic institutions and machinery.  Pakistan is also a country known for exporting terrorism, India being its neighbour is the immediate victim of terror activities prominently in the states of Jammu and Kashmir for years. May be because of this behaviour of this country former Indian PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee said “You can change your friends, but not your neighbours”. To have a hostile neighbour like Pakistan, India has always had to keep a eye of concern over its activities to safeguard its national interest, as well as its national security.

Future of Chaos or Stability

‘Every crisis is an opportunity’ apparently, a focused and strategic response is needed by India to address the various challenges from its neighbours. Economic assistance coupled up with developmental project will lead the way for more intense cooperation. People to people connection has always been the cornerstone of India’s foreign policy, which can be encouraged through civilian development programmes, at the same time also maintaining the line of communication with the new players, whether its interim government in Bangladesh, or government in Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka whilst also safeguarding its own interest.

The path ahead may be charged with complexities, but with a steadfast commitment to its principles and strategic interest and calculated steps, India can transform these challenges into opportunities for greater regional integration and stability. A prosperous and stable neighbourhood is imperative. Foreign Policy analyst C Raja Mohan rightly said “Without enduring primacy in one’s neighbourhood no nation can become a credible power at the global stage”, this will ensure India’s greater growth, and concurrently will help to nourish the dream becoming “Vishwabandhu”, a global friend.