By: Paarvana Sree, Research Analyst, GSDN

China’s nuclear weapons have been playing a significant role in its national strategy. We can see that China’s nuclear doctrine has a very strong continuity. China has also made readjustments in its nuclear doctrine by taking into consideration the changes in the external and internal environment and its strategic threat perception. We can see that China’s nuclear programme has devolved from anti-nuclear blackmail to the policy of minimum deterrence. The five major part of China’s nuclear doctrine are policy of nuclear declaration, nuclear development, nuclear deployment, nuclear employment and nuclear disarmament. China’s nuclear doctrine has its own characteristics as China is faced with a different situation and has its own strategic culture. China’s nuclear doctrine is linked with national development strategy, national security strategy, National defense policy and that of military strategy of China.

Brief history of China’s nuclear programme

Mao Zedong, China’s founding father believed that it was conventional weapons that would play a greater role in war than the nuclear weapons. When China’s nuclear programme began in 1950s China always wanted to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. When China was working on modernizing the People’s Liberation Army which began in 1955, it was asserted that strategies for evolving a scientific base for China which was a mile stone in country’s nuclearisation which began in 1964. The emphasis for developing a nuclear weapon arsenal took place when United States tried to deter China’s involvement in Korean War. Many of the political leaders in China advanced for ‘master atomic energy’. This ultimately led to the development of China’s nuclear program which was consolidated with the aid from technological transfer agreements it signed with Soviet Union. Soviet Union assistance was indeed vital for China’s build of nuclear capabilities. Soviet Union gave  military and technical assistance for China and provided an experimental reactor and uranium processing units.

China remarked that the acquisition of nuclear weapon was the best way to attain military supremacy in the bipolar world which was governed by the two hegemons at that time the USA and USSR. China also viewed nuclear weapons as a stronger defence strategy to avoid potential threats from the US and USSR. China’s nuclear relationship with USSR was however strained because of the ideological differences between Mao Zedong and Nikita Khrushchev. Soviet Union withdrew its technical assistance for China because of the growing dissatisfaction it had with China. The attack by Chinese forces on the Soviet soldiers on Zhenbao Island on Ussuri River further aggravated the tensions. China saw this as a deterrence measure against the Soviet aggression. Even though the relationship between China and Soviet Union ended, China continued its development of nuclear weapons and consequently held the first nuclear test on October 16, 1964 at Lop Nor site, detonating a Uranium 235 fashion device. China then became the fifth nuclear state in the world.

Key developments in China’s nuclear programme

1. Hypersonic weapons:

China is one of the nations to develop hypersonic weapon system. There are two types of hypersonic missiles. One is hypersonic glide vehicle and the other is hypersonic cruise missile. China had been experimenting the test of DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle since 2014. China built its first hypersonic wind tunnel in 2013. In 2023 it finished the construction of JF-22 hyper velocity wind tunnels. China also deployed its DF-17 medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a hypersonic light vehicle as a payload in 2020. DF-17 can carry either conventional or nuclear payload and has a range between 1800 and 2500 km. Besides developing hypersonic glide vehicles, China is testing hypersonic cruise missile that use scramjet technology. The China academy of aerospace aerodynamics conducted the test of Den Xing Kong-2 (Stray Sky 2) wave rider hypersonic flight vehicles in August 2018.

• Fractional orbital bombardment system ( FOBS)

The test for FOBS took place in August 2021 and in this a nuclear capable hypersonic missile was sent into an orbit and deorbited to achieve the target. The distance covered was 40000 km with a flight time of 100 + minutes. This was not a new technique as this technique was used by Soviet Union during the Cold War period. What is new with China is that China used  it with hypersonic glide vehicle. China is using these to escalate the formidable missile defence system of US.

• Increased nuclear arsenal

The Stockholm International Peace Research (SIPRI) reports that China has a stockpile of 500 nuclear warheads. By 2030 it may be increased to 1000 war heads says the US Department of Defence. China is building missile silos since 2021 in the north western desert of the country. This report expects that China has about 400 ICBMs in its inventory. China is going on with its construction in Lop Nor, the nuclear testing site. China also increased its production of plutonium through the efficient reactors. All this points out to the fact that China is going into a nuclear arms race with USA and Russia.

• Nuclear posture debate

The US Department of Defence says that China is now adopting the low posture called an early warning counter strike which was different from past. This enables China to launch a nuclear attack even when there is a suspicion of incoming missile. In such a situation China will launch an attack even though it had not hit the nuclear territory. These changed postures thus reveal a degree of aggression in Chinese nuclear planning.

Overall strategy and doctrine

China always maintained the policy of No First Use (NFU) and followed the policy of credible minimum deterrence following the 1964 nuclear test. China always followed the policy which emphasizes importance of second strike survivability of its nuclear weapons. In

this way we can view that the primary aim in modernizing and expanding the nuclear weapon arsenal is to maintain its position in global affairs and to build credible minimum deterrence from other states.

China is primarily concerned by its position in the nuclear non-proliferation regime. It is also to be noted that China is having a friendly relation with Pakistan in the transfer of nuclear technology, uranium mining and nuclear fuel supply. China also provides Pakistan the support to set up research reactors. Presently China’s nuclear doctrine consists of five elements-nuclear declaration, development, deployment, employment and disarmament. China replicated its support for nuclear disarmament while maintaining the importance of having an effective nuclear arsenal with a strategic second strike capability. The white papers published by China in 2019 reveal a detailed picture of China’s military and PLA strategies and very little about its nuclear weapon program. If it is true this means that China’s nuclear program is evolving around the surrounding geopolitical circumstances and countries threat perceptions. The white paper report of 2019 declared that China does not engage in any nuclear arms race with any other country and keep its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for national security. China also maintained the importance of defensive nuclear capabilities as the primary aim of its nuclear program. It also maintained complete and total nuclear disarmament as its priority and the goal of its nuclear strategy

Implications for India

Even though both India and China are nuclear weapons state they have certain implications for each other. China’s build-up of nuclear stockpile had been a major factor for India’s nuclear weapon program in the context of border dispute which occurred in 1962 and China’s nuclear test in 1964.

Both India and China apply the principle of NFU and credible minimum deterrence and follow the policy of escalation which deals with nuclear threats. Both states argue that their nuclear weapons will play a decisive role in military conflicts between them. India’s nuclear strategy dealt with Pakistan and while that of China is pointed at the US. This had been highlighted by 1993 and 1996 peace agreements along the India-China border highlighting the need for confidence building. Military modernization of China is largely playing a role in India’s own modernization efforts as the need for deterrence paves way for greater tensions. China does not see India as a potential rival discounting India’s nuclear capabilities. The growing Pakistan-China relationship is a vital factor in India’s perception of China and its nuclear program. While framing India’s security architecture they take into account India’s unresolved border issues with Pakistan and China which plays a greater role in the nuclear domain.

Conclusion

China’s efforts to improve its nuclear capabilities have received the attention of stakeholders who are involved in global conversations dealing with nuclear weapons and disarmament.

China’s goal to modernize its military and nuclear capabilities is mainly aimed at establishing the supremacy in world order. The US and its larger nuclear arsenal is a greater threat to China. Thus, in order to overcome potential risk China pursued the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. North Korea’s proliferation of nuclear weapons and breakdown of international agreements like INF paved the way for China’s disinterest in engaging in disarmament with the USA. The China’s nuclear program will definitely play a tense role in the current nuclear world and whether global disarmament could become a reality, remains unachievable as on date.