By: Khushbu Ahlawat, Consulting Editor, GSDN
Introduction
India–Bangladesh relations have long been considered a cornerstone of South Asian regional stability, rooted in shared history, geography, and cultural affinities. However, recent developments suggest a subtle but significant recalibration in Dhaka’s diplomatic messaging. Bangladesh’s renewed emphasis on “people-to-people ties” over purely state-centric engagement signals both a pragmatic shift and a response to evolving domestic and regional dynamics. This moment presents an opportunity to reassess the trajectory of bilateral relations—balancing strategic cooperation with public sentiment, economic interdependence, and political realities. In the 2025–2026 context, this shift is even more significant as bilateral ties are passing through a phase of “instability and interdependence”, where institutional cooperation remains intact but societal and political tensions are rising. Experts argue that this phase reflects a deeper structural transformation rather than a temporary diplomatic fluctuation. Within policy circles, this has increasingly been described as a transition from “government-led convergence” to “society-sensitive diplomacy.”
Context and Immediate Trigger
The article reflects statements from Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser urging deeper societal engagement between India and Bangladesh, while also acknowledging periodic misunderstandings at the political and administrative levels. This comes at a time when Bangladesh is navigating post-election political consolidation, India is recalibrating its Neighbourhood First Policy, and regional geopolitics is increasingly influenced by China’s growing footprint in South Asia.
The messaging is clear: while government-to-government relations remain stable, public perception and grassroots engagement need strengthening. This becomes more relevant after the 2024 political transition in Bangladesh, where leadership change created uncertainties in foreign policy orientation. In April 2025, a key bilateral meeting between Indian and Bangladeshi leadership on the sidelines of BIMSTEC addressed sensitive issues like Teesta water sharing, border killings, and minority concerns—highlighting both cooperation and friction.
Experts note that such engagements are “constructive but cautious,” reflecting a relationship that is cooperative yet under strain, with diplomacy increasingly shaped by domestic political compulsions on both sides.
Historical Foundations of India–Bangladesh Relations
The bilateral relationship has been shaped by several defining milestones. The Liberation War of 1971 remains the bedrock of goodwill, with India playing a decisive role in Bangladesh’s independence. The Ganga Water Treaty (1996) symbolized cooperative conflict resolution over shared river resources. The Land Boundary Agreement (2015) resolved decades-old enclave disputes and is often cited as one of the most successful peaceful border settlements globally. In addition, the 2015 maritime boundary settlement and continued cooperation through mechanisms like the Joint Rivers Commission demonstrate institutional depth in bilateral engagement. These foundational agreements continue to provide stability even during contemporary tensions, underscoring the resilience of bilateral frameworks.
Recent High-Level Visits and Diplomatic Engagements
Recent years have witnessed both continuity and recalibration in diplomatic engagements. Frequent prime ministerial and ministerial visits over the last decade strengthened cooperation in connectivity, trade, and energy. However, the post-2024 phase marked a turning point in tone rather than structure. In 2026, India welcomed the new political leadership in Bangladesh, with high-level congratulatory exchanges and invitations for official visits, signalling continuity in diplomatic outreach despite political change. At the same time, Bangladesh’s leadership has emphasized a “balanced and mutually beneficial relationship”, indicating a desire to diversify foreign policy while maintaining ties with India. Institutional dialogues such as the Joint Consultative Commission (JCC) and defence cooperation mechanisms continue, including joint exercises like Sampriti. However, analysts observe that while elite-level diplomacy remains active, public sentiment has become more volatile, creating a dual-layered dynamic in bilateral engagement.
Key Areas of Cooperation
India–Bangladesh cooperation remains multidimensional and structurally significant. Economically, India is among Bangladesh’s largest trading partners, with bilateral trade historically exceeding $18 billion, though recent estimates suggest stabilisation around $13–14 billion amid emerging tensions and policy adjustments. Connectivity projects such as the Akhaura–Agartala rail link and inland waterways aim to transform regional logistics into an integrated network linking India’s Northeast with Bangladesh and beyond. However, several projects have faced delays due to administrative bottlenecks, financing constraints, and land acquisition issues—highlighting the implementation gap in bilateral commitments. Energy cooperation remains one of the strongest pillars of the relationship. Notably, India’s electricity exports accounted for over 15% of Bangladesh’s power supply in 2025, reflecting deep interdependence despite political frictions. Experts highlight that such cooperation demonstrates a “functional resilience” in bilateral ties, where economic necessities and infrastructure dependencies sustain engagement even during diplomatic strain. Security cooperation also remains robust, particularly in counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing, and border management, contributing to stability in India’s Northeast and reinforcing mutual strategic trust.
Emerging Challenges and Frictions
Despite strong ties, several challenges persist and have intensified in recent years. The Teesta water dispute remains unresolved and continues to affect public perception in Bangladesh, where water security is directly linked to agricultural livelihoods and rural stability. Trade tensions have escalated notably. In 2025, both countries imposed restrictions on each other’s goods, affecting trade worth nearly $770 million, signalling a shift towards calibrated economic friction. Bangladesh’s restrictions on Indian exports and India’s retaliatory measures reflect growing protectionism and strategic signalling.
Additionally, India’s withdrawal of transshipment facilities for Bangladeshi exports in 2025 raised concerns about regional trade integration and increased logistical costs for Dhaka, potentially affecting long-term connectivity goals. Domestic political narratives further complicate ties. Incidents related to minority rights, migration debates, and border violence have triggered protests and influenced public opinion, making diplomacy more sensitive, politically charged, and perception-driven. Experts increasingly describe this phase as one of “narrative contestation” alongside strategic cooperation.
Shift Toward ‘People-to-People’ Diplomacy
Bangladesh’s recent emphasis highlights the importance of societal engagement as a stabilizing force in bilateral relations. Cultural exchanges, academic collaborations, tourism, and youth engagement are being promoted as instruments to rebuild trust and deepen long-term connectivity.
India’s continued scholarship programs and training initiatives for Bangladeshi officials reinforce this approach, while also contributing to capacity-building and institutional linkages. Experts argue that “state-centric diplomacy alone is insufficient in an era of politicised public opinion,” making people-to-people ties essential for long-term stability.
This shift also reflects an understanding that perception gaps at the grassroots level can undermine even the strongest strategic partnerships, necessitating a more inclusive and socially grounded diplomatic approach.An equally significant yet often overlooked factor shaping contemporary India–Bangladesh relations is the role of information ecosystems and digital narratives in influencing bilateral perceptions. In recent years, the rapid expansion of social media platforms, vernacular news outlets, and cross-border digital consumption has amplified the speed at which misinformation, political rhetoric, and identity-based narratives circulate between the two societies. This has contributed to periodic spikes in public distrust, even when official diplomatic channels remain stable and cooperative. Notably, digitally driven narratives around migration, border management, and cultural identity have begun to shape electoral discourse and public opinion in both countries, thereby constraining diplomatic flexibility. For policymakers, this presents a new challenge: managing not just traditional statecraft, but also perception diplomacy in the digital age. Addressing this requires institutional collaboration in media literacy, fact-checking partnerships, and responsible information-sharing mechanisms between the two governments. Furthermore, encouraging academic exchanges, journalist collaborations, and civil society dialogue can help counter polarising narratives and foster a more nuanced understanding of bilateral realities. In this context, the sustainability of India–Bangladesh relations will increasingly depend on their ability to navigate the intersection of diplomacy, technology, and public perception in an era of information volatility.
Geopolitical Dimension
The geopolitical dimension has become more pronounced in 2025–2026. China’s expanding presence in Bangladesh—through infrastructure investments, connectivity projects, and defence cooperation—has introduced a competitive dynamic in the region.
Analysts suggest that Bangladesh is pursuing a “multi-vector foreign policy”, balancing relations with India and China to maximise strategic and economic gains. As one expert notes, “Bangladesh needs both India and China in pragmatic terms,” highlighting a strategy of hedging rather than alignment.
For India, this underscores the need to strengthen engagement not only at the government level but also at the societal, economic, and developmental levels to remain a preferred and trusted partner.A critical yet underexplored dimension of India–Bangladesh relations in 2025–2026 is the growing salience of economic nationalism and supply chain recalibration within Bangladesh’s domestic policy framework. Dhaka is increasingly prioritising industrial self-reliance, export diversification, and resilience against external shocks, particularly in the wake of global disruptions and currency pressures. This has translated into a more cautious approach toward trade dependencies, including those with India, thereby subtly reshaping bilateral economic engagement. Simultaneously, Bangladesh’s ambition to transition from a Least Developed Country (LDC) to a developing economy by 2026 is influencing its external partnerships, pushing it to negotiate more competitive trade terms and safeguard domestic industries. From an Indian perspective, this shift necessitates a recalibration of engagement strategies—from a predominantly assistance-driven model to one centred on co-development, technology transfer, and value chain integration. Experts suggest that aligning with Bangladesh’s developmental priorities, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, digital services, and green infrastructure, could create a more sustainable and mutually beneficial partnership. This evolving economic posture underscores that future bilateral stability will depend not only on strategic alignment but also on economic adaptability and responsiveness to domestic transformation.
Strategic Significance for India
Bangladesh remains crucial for India’s Act East Policy, connectivity to the Northeast, and maritime security in the Bay of Bengal. Its geographic position makes it indispensable for regional integration, supply chains, and economic corridors. India has extended nearly $10 billion in Lines of Credit to Bangladesh, reflecting its role as a key development partner. However, delays in project implementation have raised concerns about delivery efficiency and institutional coordination. Strategically, a stable Bangladesh is essential for managing border security, migration issues, and regional stability. Experts describe the relationship as “too important to fail,” given the depth of interdependence across economic, strategic, and societal domains.
Way Forward
To sustain and deepen ties, both countries should focus on resolving pending issues like the Teesta dispute through political consensus while insulating critical areas of cooperation from domestic political fluctuations. Accelerating connectivity and infrastructure projects must remain a priority, alongside enhancing sub-regional cooperation frameworks such as BBIN.
Concluding a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) by 2026 could significantly boost economic integration, reduce trade barriers, and address structural imbalances. There is also a need to streamline regulatory frameworks, reduce non-tariff barriers, and modernise border infrastructure.
Expanding digital cooperation, education partnerships, and media engagement can help align public narratives and counter misinformation. Experts emphasize that the future of India–Bangladesh relations will depend on “balancing strategic interests with sensitivity to domestic political realities,” making diplomacy more adaptive, inclusive, and forward-looking.
To stabilise and future-proof India–Bangladesh relations amid evolving geopolitical and domestic pressures, a calibrated and forward-looking policy approach is essential. First, both countries must institutionalise dispute-resolution mechanisms, particularly on water-sharing and border management, to prevent periodic tensions from escalating into public mistrust. Second, accelerating the implementation of connectivity and infrastructure projects through time-bound delivery frameworks will help restore credibility and unlock regional economic potential.
Third, India should transition from a primarily credit-based engagement model to one focused on co-production, technology partnerships, and private sector integration, aligning with Bangladesh’s developmental aspirations. Fourth, both governments must invest in structured people-to-people initiatives, including academic exchanges, media collaborations, and youth engagement platforms, to counter misinformation and strengthen societal trust.
Fifth, enhancing coordination in the Bay of Bengal region through maritime security dialogues and sustainable development initiatives can reinforce shared strategic interests. Finally, both sides must adopt a “de-politicised cooperation framework”, insulating critical bilateral sectors from domestic political fluctuations to ensure continuity and long-term stability.
Conclusion
Bangladesh’s call for prioritizing “people-to-people ties” is not a departure from strong bilateral relations, but rather an evolution of them. It reflects a nuanced understanding that diplomacy must move beyond state corridors into societal connections. India and Bangladesh today stand at a mature phase of engagement—marked by deep cooperation but also requiring careful management of sensitivities. The developments of 2025–2026 clearly indicate that while economic and strategic interdependence remains strong, political and societal frictions are rising simultaneously, creating a complex but manageable dynamic. This duality defines the current phase of bilateral relations and will shape its future trajectory.
If both nations successfully integrate strategic interests with public engagement, the relationship can emerge as a model for regional cooperation—anchored not just in history and geography, but in shared aspirations for growth, stability, and mutual respect. In an increasingly complex geopolitical environment, the success of India–Bangladesh relations will depend on their ability to transform interdependence into trust, and cooperation into a resilient, future-oriented partnership.
About the Author
Khushbu Ahlawat is a research analyst with a strong academic background in International Relations and Political Science. She has undertaken research projects at Jawaharlal Nehru University, contributing to analytical work on international and regional security issues. Alongside her research experience, she has professional exposure to Human Resources, with involvement in talent acquisition and organizational operations. She holds a Master’s degree in International Relations from Christ University, Bangalore, and a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from the University of Delhi.
