By: Rudraksh Saklani, Research Analyst, GSDN
The year 2025, geopolitically speaking, has not exactly been a bed of roses for the world in general but more importantly, for Asia in particular. With 2026 unravelling itself by the day if not by the hour, and because the world now rightly expects conversations around action-oriented policies vis-a-vis climate change and supply chain resilience to gain more ground, our global village seems to be rupturing itself from within.
The so-called conflict management mechanisms and systems, let alone resolutions, have been rather counter-productive in ways more than one in the previous year. The upcoming year leaves us in the middle of a misdirected transition. This time around, the situation in Asia is gradually descending into unprecedented turmoil. However, like always, there certainly is light at the end of the tunnel, unless countries and ‘blocs’ themselves decide to complement the chaos.
Introductory context
If we were to go by the ongoing unrest in Asia within the first two weeks of 2026 itself, the situation is anything but encouraging. With Iran facing unprecedented largely anti-establishment nationwide protests amidst an imminent economic collapse and Chinese acts of provocative aggression and military drills around Taiwan, alongside Saudi strikes in east Yemen in response to the United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed Southern Transitional Council consolidating and the latest United States (U.S.)-led punitive strikes on multiple Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) targets in Syria, to name a few.
Western think tank reports suggest Asia to be the center of systemic competition and adaptation. The China-US rivalries are very much in place, and so is India’s resilient strategic autonomy as the voice of the Global South. Reporting in western media identifies Asia’s pivotal role in shaping global security, technology, and economic architecture in the year 2026.
On the other hand, the Asian evaluations underscore adaptability and tactical change in the context of great power competition and economic volatility. Think tanks in Asia emphasize regional role continuity in driving global growth, particularly in information technology, consumer demand, and respective supply chain configurations, despite various regional tensions. The resistance of India to tariffs and its subsequent economic progress in the latest quarter underscores its strong fundamentals and the region’s interconnectedness.
Historical backdrop
The Asian geopolitical layout has been shaped by a long process of transformation that began in 1945. Decolonization reconfigured political boundaries, while the Cold War institutionalized alliance structures in Asia. From 1991 onwards, economic globalization was marked by persistent territorial disputes. China’s rise since the 1970s has transformed regional power relations, while India’s reforms from 1991 have expanded its strategic footprint. The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic further entrenched state strategies. Persistent hotspots—the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, Afghanistan-Pakistan border (Durand line), Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Baluchistan, Jammu and Kashmir (India), the Levant, South China Sea—arranged against multi-polar diffusion currently position Asia as the theatre of global power transition in 2026.
Region-wise nuances within Asia
Western and regional analysts continue to expect instability in West Asia/Middle East in 2026. The ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon are likely to worsen, stress-testing diplomacy. Continued U.S. engagement remains vital as a main mediator amid the expressed desire of Washington to shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific, forcing Gulf nations to navigate relations with India, China, and Russia.
Various think tanks underline strong structural rivalry among main regional players like Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar, Iran, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Turkiye, regarding issues related to terrorism. Gross Domestic Product forecasts, for their part, point out fiscal reforms and diversification efforts of Gulf countries in the face of geopolitical risks and fluctuations in the energy market. Strategic partnerships, such as the Indo-Abrahamic bloc aka India-Israel-UAE-U.S.A. (I2U2) and may help in strengthening security cooperation, but the Iranian nuclear situation and proxy wars which pose a threat to the very ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) have kept the region on the boil.
Central Asia will continue to be a geostrategic pivot among major powers in 2026. Analysts point to the region’s susceptibility to outside influence from Russia, China, the European Union (EU) and the U.S., as China fortifies its economic and security ties through the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia seeks to preserve its influence in its “soft underbelly”. The strategic partnerships and investment structures between the EU and Central Asia developed at recent summits illustrate Europe’s objective to deepen economic and governance cooperation. Central Asian states will continue hedge-balancing their geography to attract infrastructure investment, diversify their economic partners, and avoid overdependence on any one power. Threats to security persist, including Afghanistan and broader regional instability.
The future of South Asia will be affected by the environment of security challenges and economic development. Experts on South Asian policymaking forums highlight the following issues that will tend to affect this future : Pakistan’s state sponsored-terrorism through proxies with growing Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) footprint in the region, the Indo-China bilateral dynamics, increasing radicalization and fanaticism in Bangladesh, condition of women’s education in Afghanistan, the Myanmar junta’s handling of rebel groups and Nepal’s political transition being vulnerable to external interference.
Nonetheless, the demographics and economic trajectories of South Asia, including Indian rapid growth, consumption, and investment attractiveness, mitigate the risks posed by the international environment. India being the net security provider and first responder in the region is expected to continue to stabilize the region.
In 2026, South-east Asia is facing challenges in dealing with hedging strategies and economic resilience. Southeast Asia countries adapted to great power rivalry by harmonizing their strong economic ties with China and their defense partnerships with the U.S. and its set of allies. Political shifts, including elections in Thailand and other nations, could alter priority agendas, but collective engagement through Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) remains vibrant. As a bridge for major powers, combined with their economic engines, ASEAN is a dynamic player for these factors, even amidst territorial and maritime disputes.
East Asia remains at the center of the Sino-American strategic rivalry. Important trends such as tech competition (semi-conductors), and de-risking of supply chains. Greater U.S. military cooperation with U.S. partners like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Philippines reflects efforts to cope with China’s unprovoked aggression in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, also North Korea’s hostile military power projection through missile testing every now and then affecting the Korean Peninsula. The ability of countries in East Asia to effectively navigate relationships between Washington and Beijing, underpinned by economic connections, will shape regional diplomacy despite continued military competitions in technology in 2026.
Perspectives of multilateral organizations & the “West
From the perspective of the Western institutions, Asia is an enabler of global strategic stability and economic security. The EU focuses on connectivity, climate finance, and supply chain resilience through initiatives such as Global Gateway. For the Group of 7 (G7), Asia signifies technology governance, economic stability, and the preservation of a rules-based order. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), though Euro-Atlantic in origin, is slowly coming to understand that instability in the Indo-Pacific has implications for European security, forging deeper partnerships with India, Japan, South Korea, and Australia to counter the systemic challenges posed by China.
BRICS Standpoint
Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) with new entrants like Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE from Asia among others, regards Asia as the central stage for multi-polar rebalancing. The key word is reshaping global governance, deepening South-South cooperation, and reducing dependence on Western monetary systems. BRICS is pressing for alternative development financing, more local currency settlements, and strategic autonomy. Compared to military alliances, Asia is now taken more as a continent of development, energy, and infrastructure.
SCO Outlook
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) focuses on Asia primarily through counter-terrorism and regional stability. Moving ahead, SCO focuses on tackling extremism, cyber threats, and connectivity in the Eurasian region. Members utilize SCO as a mechanism against Westernization. The SCO avoids the politics of blocs and promotes a multi-polar Asia by encouraging security cooperation and economic integration in the region.
QUAD Outlook
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) views Asia based on maritime security, technological norms, disaster relief operations and resilient supply chains. This organization circumvents established military alliances and builds efficiency in economic and security cooperation between India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia. It is based on the shared principles of a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific and focuses on capacity-building, crucial technologies, and infrastructure, as well as emergency and humanitarian responses, through initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF).
G20 Outlook
From the Group-of-20 (G20)’s view, Asia is significant in the context of global economic progress and development. Taking into account the fact that Asia holds important economies and developing markets, the G20 promotes macroeconomic cooperation, debt relief, climate financing, and digital public infrastructure.
Role of India and China – 3Cs (Competition, Conflict, Cooperation)
China remains Asia’s dominant force, shaping Asian geopolitics through its economy, infrastructure development, and military strength. China’s BRI Infrastructure and its importance in trading and technological supremacy give China a substantial influence in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of West Asia. However, China’s belligerent behavior (especially, its Wolf-warrior diplomacy) in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait continues to provoke counter-balancing alliances. China’s slower domestic growth forces it to address foreign markets, energy security, and increase its political influence within the Global South. Meanwhile, foreign policy continues to combine the politics of incentives, intimidation and security signals to prevent encirclement.
India’s status is that of a balancing force, an agenda-setter that is also the “Voice of the Global South”. India is nurturing strategic long-term trust-based value-driven partnerships in West Asia (I2U2, energy security, International North South Transport Corridor INSTC, Chabahar port in Iran), and in South-east Asia (Act East policy). India’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific, especially alongside ASEAN countries, Japan, Australia & the U.S., makes it clear that India aims at effectively rising up to China’s expansionist tendencies without creating rigid, binding alliances. However, India maintains its “strategic autonomy” by partnering with Iran, Russia & the Global South. India’s growing economic heft, demographic dividend & digital public infrastructure further cement its stature in Asia as a credible, reliable democratic power. India is constantly forecasted to expand by about 6.6–6.7% in 2026, placing it among the fastest-growing major economies within Asia, powered by strong domestic demand, consumption, and government investment. Against the backdrop of a worldwide slowdown, India’s growth rate outranks that of many major economies in Asia and elsewhere, putting it as a key driver in not only regional but also global output. These projections underline the paramount position of India in restoring Asian economic dynamism in 2026, thus contributing to regional development and stability.
The Global South in 2026 has become an active geopolitical player in Asia and can no longer be treated as a mere passive entity. The states in West Asia and South Asia as well as South-east Asia now stand for sovereignty, development, and resilience, and it constitutes an important swing player in the increasingly complex geopolitical game in Asia.
Conclusion
Structural realism, or neorealism, best explains the geopolitical landscape in Asia for the year 2026. It positson recalibrated and realigned international system in which states are concerned first and foremost with survival, balance power against one another, and respond to shifts in relative strength. In that respect, the Asian continent represents today’s pivotal theater of power transition. The South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the Indo-Pacific demonstrate realist strategies of balancing and counterbalancing to guarantee national security. Of course, institutions and economics do matter; however, what defines the strategic behavior of Asia’s major players is power distribution and perceived threats.
About the Author
Rudraksh Saklani is postgraduate in History from the University of Delhi with graduation in the same discipline. He possesses solid analytical and communication skills honed through intense academic training and has diverse internship experience, including with the Ministry of Panchayati Raj, Government of India. His research internship experience at The Indian Journal for Research in Law and Management has allowed him familiarization with law and management-related contemporary themes and case studies. He is an alumnus of The Army Public School, Dhaula Kuan, New Delhi where he scored perfect 10 CGPA in Class X and 92% in Class XII and was the Head Boy of the school.
