By: Akash Nigam
On November 08, 2024 Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed two acts viz. Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act and Philippine Maritime Zones Act. While the former complements both the maritime and aerial policy, the latter defines the extent of Manila’s maritime entitlements and fully declares its metes and bounds in accordance with International Maritime Law, UNCLOS. Beijing responded to this using its ‘lawfare strategy’ by releasing another set of maps claiming the Scarborough Shoal and a statement that Manila sought to justify its illegal claims in the name of implementing UNCLOS.
The South China Sea (SCS) has emerged as one of the most contentious maritime dominions in the contemporary epoch, wherein multifarious sovereign entities vie for territorial sovereignty and nautical prerogatives. The Philippines archipelago finds itself ensconced at the nexus of this geopolitical maelstrom, confronting the formidable imperative of safeguarding its maritime territories against China’s imperious territorial postulations and expansionist maritime behaviour vis-à-vis virtually all claimants in the SCS.
Manila’s strategic methodology in countervailing China’s sweeping maritime assertions has concentrated on the metamorphosis of its indigenous defense apparatus, the exploitation of supranational juridical instruments, and the innovative Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC) as a sophisticated riposte to Beijing’s territorial provocations. Notwithstanding substantial augmentation through internal balancing by Manila, circumnavigating Beijing’s influence in the SCS necessitates an incremental, multifaceted stratagem that mandates both the aegis of preeminent global powers and the prescriptive multilateral framework of ASEAN.
Unveiling the Veiled: Three Pivotal Events
While perusing the chronological trajectory of this contentious region, three seminal occurrences illuminate the labyrinthine complexities and multifaceted ramifications of this geopolitical conflagration. The manifestation of increasingly bellicose Chinese maritime territorial assertions in the SCS, particularly in the Spratly archipelago and Scarborough Shoal, demarcated an epochal watershed moment. First, is the 1995 Chinese Occupation of Mischief Reef in the SCS territorial disputes, which marked a critical escalation of China’s maritime assertiveness towards the Philippines. Located in the Spratly Islands within the Philippines’ claimed exclusive economic zone, Mischief Reef was initially discovered with wooden structures that China claimed were shelters for fishermen. However, the Philippine government quickly recognised these as strategic military installations.
Second, the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff which represented a dramatic and tense maritime confrontation that significantly transformed Philippines-China relations. This standoff was particularly significant as it represented a clear demonstration of China’s maritime coercion strategy, utilising maritime militia, coast guard, and naval assets to assert territorial claims. The Philippines found itself strategically outmanoeuvred, unable to prevent China’s de facto control of the disputed maritime territory, following which Beijing has maintained a persistent presence in the area, effectively controlling this precious real estate. Third, notwithstanding these claims, the 2016 landmark arbitration case at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague (constituted under Annex VII to the 1982 UNCLOS) emerged as a groundbreaking legal challenge to China’s maritime claims, a comprehensive ruling that was unprecedented in international maritime law. The court’s ruling categorically rejected China’s historical claims and represented a significant diplomatic and legal victory for the Philippines.
Treading the Eggshells: The Philippines’ Strategy
First, the Philippines has adopted a diplomatic balancing strategy, this strategy represents a delicate navigation between confrontation and cooperation, leveraging multiple diplomatic channels to create a comprehensive security framework. The cornerstone of this diplomatic approach is the strategic alliance with the United States, which has been systematically strengthened since the early 2010s. The Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) signed in 2014 symbolises this deepening partnership, allowing increased US military presence in Philippine bases and providing critical security guarantees. Moreover, in June 2023 also, defence leaders from the United States, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines convened, strengthening a collaborative regional group informally called the “Squad” by Pentagon officials.
This quadrilateral partnership represents one of Washington’s strategic efforts to counterbalance China’s growing regional influence. Second, within ASEAN’s diplomatic framework too, the Philippines has emerged as a proactive diplomatic actor, leveraging multilateral mechanisms to internationalise the SCS dispute. Rather than pursuing a unilateral confrontational approach, the country has consistently sought collective regional responses to maritime tensions. This strategy involves building consensus among ASEAN members, promoting dialogue-based conflict resolution, and presenting a united regional perspective on maritime disputes. By advocating for a collective ASEAN approach, the Philippines transforms a bilateral dispute into a broader regional security concern, thereby increasing diplomatic pressure on China and preventing potential isolated confrontations.
Further, the Philippines has also adopted a military modernisation program which represents a critical strategic response to the evolving maritime security challenges in the SCS, driven by the urgent need to develop credible defence capabilities against potential regional threats. Initiated through the Revised Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernisation Act in 2013, the program aims to comprehensively transform the country’s military from a decades-old, poorly equipped force to a modern, technologically advanced defensive apparatus. The Philippine government has allocated substantial resources to this program. From 2013 to 2028, the modernisation program is set to invest approximately US$ 5.4 billion in military asset acquisition and technological upgrade. Third, is the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept which has emerged as a sophisticated strategic response to maritime challenges, integrating multiple dimensions of national security.
Developed by Philippine military strategists, CADC represents an innovative approach to territorial defence that goes beyond traditional military strategies and cumulatively focuses on resource exploitation. However, Prof Renato Cruz De Castro argues that, “The United States and Australia stand out as the most capable and willing security partners in assisting the Philippines in developing its capabilities to transform the CADC into a viable defense strategy. ” Thus, CADC requires multilayered support of actors involved in the region. Yet, the strategic posture of Manila remains defensive, which potentially allows China to maintain the initiative in maritime confrontations. This reactive stance might inadvertently legitimise incremental Chinese territorial encroachments.
In response to Beijing’s persistent and escalating aggression, it is imperative for Manila to recalibrate the strategic imagination and cumulatively orchestrate existing plans into praxis. This, however, would depend on continued strategic innovation, international cooperation, and maintaining a balanced yet assertive approach to territorial integrity.
Really insightful.