As the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza hit a roadblock, a new wave of anxiety is spreading across Egypt and Israel, with many fearing that the situation could escalate into a broader conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a stern warning to Hamas, vowing consequences “beyond imagination” if the group does not release the remaining captives in Gaza. Meanwhile, Hamas has accused Israel of derailing the peace process by refusing to move to the next phase of the ceasefire and instead insisting on prolonging the first stage.
Diplomatic Standoff and International Outcry
Israel’s decision to block humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza has drawn severe backlash from the international community. Egypt, Qatar, and Jordan have condemned the move, calling it a blatant violation of humanitarian law and a direct breach of the ceasefire agreement. This diplomatic standoff has not only stalled peace efforts but has also fueled tensions between Israel and its neighboring countries, particularly Egypt.
Amidst this turmoil, the Arab Summit in Egypt has placed significant focus on Gaza’s redevelopment plan. However, U.S. President Donald Trump’s controversial remarks about “taking Gaza over rebuilding it” have reignited fears of forced displacement and increased instability in the region. The mention of a potential Egyptian role in absorbing displaced Palestinians has further complicated the situation, triggering strong reactions across Egypt.
War Chatter Escalates in Egypt and Israel
In Egypt, murmurs of war have started surfacing in public discourse, reflecting the growing apprehension among its people. Years of economic struggles, coupled with the shocking images of destruction in Gaza and Lebanon, have only amplified these concerns. Recent reports of a possible Israeli plan to push Palestinians into Egyptian territory have added fuel to the fire, making the once-whispered fears of war a mainstream conversation.
The same fears have echoed in Israel, where media outlets and social platforms have amplified speculative stories about a potential conflict. One Israeli website even went as far as publishing an AI-generated scenario depicting an attack on Egypt’s strategic High Dam, while an Egyptian YouTuber countered with an AI-generated simulation of an assault on Israel’s nuclear reactor. Social media has now turned into a battleground for nationalist keyboard warriors, each side hurling accusations and threats at the other.
Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth has reported that much of this “war sentiment” is being driven by misleading information, amplified by right-wing media. It pointed out that rumors about an Egyptian military buildup at the border were baseless, designed to stoke tensions rather than reflect reality.
Netanyahu’s Political Quandary
Adding more to the crisis is the growing frustration within Israel over the fate of hostages still held by Hamas. Families of the captives have accused Netanyahu of dragging his feet on a deal to free them, allegedly due to pressure from the hardliners in his government. Netanyahu has denied these accusations, insisting that his government is committed to securing the release of all hostages.
A defense analyst suggests that the far-right elements within Israel may have an interest in “stirring the pot regarding Egypt” to divert public attention away from Netanyahu’s domestic challenges. With his political future uncertain, Netanyahu has a tough act to perform, appeasing his hardline allies while also ensuring that he does not alienate international mediators like Egypt and Qatar, who are still working to salvage the ceasefire deal.
Brewing Storm Over the Sinai Peninsula
The growing tensions between Egypt and Israel have now zeroed in on the Sinai Peninsula, where questions over military deployments and treaty violations are fueling anxieties of a larger conflict. At the heart of the issue is whether Cairo has deployed more soldiers and military equipment to Sinai than permitted under the security provisions of the historic 1979 peace treaty brokered by the United States. The agreement, which ended years of hostilities between the two nations, imposed strict limitations on Egypt’s military presence in the region bordering Israel, paving the way for decades of strategic cooperation between Cairo, Tel Aviv, and Washington.
Treaty in the Spotlight
Egypt, however, insists it is abiding by the treaty’s terms. The country has a long-standing history of seeking Israel’s approval for military expansions in Sinai, especially during operations against extremist groups. In 2016, as it battled a local ISIS branch, Egypt secured Israel’s consent to strengthen its security presence in the region. More recently, when it reinforced its border with Gaza last year, Egyptian officials were quick to clarify that the move aligned with existing agreements.
Yet, a series of military activities have raised eyebrows. A large-scale Egyptian military drill in Sinai in September, followed by a grand military parade in October attended by President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, has led to speculation in both Egyptian and Israeli media that Cairo may be preparing for war. Footage of these events has been widely circulated, further stoking fears.
Political and Media Reactions
The apprehension is not just media-driven; Israeli officials have also weighed in. Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., warned American Jewish leaders in January that Egypt was in “serious violation” of the peace treaty. He alleged that Egypt was building military bases suited for offensive operations, a claim that Egypt has not directly addressed. Israeli UN ambassador echoed these concerns in a radio interview, questioning why Egypt was spending “hundreds of millions of dollars on military equipment and that this should raise alarm bells. We must monitor Egypt closely and prepare for every scenario.”
Despite the rhetoric, military analysts on both sides remain skeptical. Hossam el-Hamalawy, a Berlin-based Egyptian security expert, dismissed claims of Egyptian violations, emphasizing that “no [Egyptian] tank enters Sinai without Israel’s approval.” He also noted that most videos circulating in the media are either outdated or filmed outside the Sinai region.
A War of Words and Uncertainty
In an attempt to de-escalate tensions, a senior Egyptian military commander, spoke in a rare interview on Saudi news channel Al-Hadath, clarifying that Egypt’s military spending and modernization efforts were aimed at “preserving peace and stability in the region.” Outgoing Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi, while acknowledging rising concerns, downplayed the immediacy of the threat, stating that while “it is not a threat at the moment, it could change in an instant.”
Yet, without clear government statements from either side, the debate has been left to influential media figures to interpret. Popular Egyptian talk show host Amr Adib reassured his audience that “we are not on the verge of war with Israel,” but pointedly noted that this was true only “as of 10:15 p.m.,” implying how swiftly the situation could change.
Mounting Pressure on the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty
While tensions between Egypt and Israel have flared up in the past, the current situation is unlike any in recent history. The 1979 peace treaty, a cornerstone of stability in the region, now faces its most serious test in decades.
At the heart of the issue is the increasing friction over Gaza. Egyptian officials have repeatedly warned that any forced displacement of Palestinians into Egypt—an idea floated by certain Israeli figures and amplified by former U.S. President Donald Trump—would be a direct threat to Egypt’s sovereignty. President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi has been clear – Sinai will not become a battleground for a new front against Israel. The Egyptian leadership is particularly alarmed by suggestions that Gaza could be turned into a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” effectively sidelining Palestinian statehood aspirations.
Despite assurances from Washington and Tel Aviv that such displacement is not on the table, the mistrust lingers. Cairo has already reinforced its border security in Rafah, signaling that it is prepared for worst-case scenarios. Reports indicate that Egyptian military officials are closely monitoring any Israeli operations in southern Gaza, wary that a spillover effect could drag Egypt into the conflict.
Behind the scenes, diplomatic maneuvering is in full swing. The Arab League has been vocal in its opposition to any move that threatens the stability of the region. Egypt, Jordan, and other key Arab states have been lobbying Washington to ensure that the peace treaty remains intact. However, with Israel’s internal political turbulence where Prime Minister Netanyahu faces pressure from hardliners the unpredictability of the situation has heightened concerns.
Moreover, the growing anti-Israel sentiment among Egyptians is making it harder for Cairo to maintain its traditionally cautious stance. Egyptian media, once relatively measured on relations with Israel, now reflects a more combative tone, mirroring the sentiments of an increasingly frustrated population. Social media has played a role in stoking these tensions, with viral misinformation and AI-generated war scenarios adding fuel to the fire.
