Zelenskyy is caught in a Catch-22 situation. U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to win Russian President Vladimir Putin’s support for a 30-day ceasefire proposal that Ukraine accepted last week. But Putin, as always, has a few conditions – five, to be precise.

Now, before we dissect Putin’s demands, let us rewind the story a bit to the important parts.

For the longest time, no major global leader was willing to sit down with Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. It was an era where peace summits happened, Zelenskyy walked in with his signature combat outfit, collected a fresh batch of money and arms, waved at everyone, and walked out. The world stood by Ukraine, and Russia remained the villain.

But then, January 20th happened. Trump re-entered the White House, and suddenly, the geopolitical script flipped. The days of Zelenskyy’s tearful pleas seemed numbered. Trump, the ultimate dealmaker, is now attempting to broker peace, not out of sheer goodwill, but with some hard-nosed business logic.

And now, Putin has placed five solid conditions on the table.

The Five Conditions of Putin’s Ceasefire

1. Withdrawal of Ukrainian Forces from Four Key Regions

Putin demands that Ukraine withdraw its military forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—territories that Russia has already claimed. Let us not forget that Crimea was snatched by Putin back in 2014, giving Russia direct access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

Now, why are these four regions so crucial? Because once Ukraine pulls back, Russia gets an even firmer grip over strategic locations, natural resources, and trade routes. Simple as that.

2. Halt All Ukrainian Military Activities

Putin insists that Ukraine must completely stop all military operations, including rearming and mobilization, during the proposed 30-day ceasefire. Translation – “You sit back and do nothing while we consolidate power.”

3. Abandon NATO Membership Aspirations

This demand is the core of the entire conflict.

Ukraine’s NATO dream is what triggered this war in the first place. And here’s why,

NATO’s famous Article 5 states that if one NATO member is attacked, the entire alliance (30+ countries) responds collectively. Now, imagine Russia waking up one morning to find Ukraine officially part of NATO. That would mean U.S. missiles parked right at Russia’s border.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, 15 independent countries emerged, including Ukraine. At that time, there was a tacit understanding – NATO wouldn’t expand towards Russia. But NATO didn’t listen. Over the years, NATO slowly crept in—Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland.

Now, if Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia sees it as a direct security threat – because, to put it bluntly, it kind of is and Putin wants to put an end to that conversation once and for all.

4. Suspension of All Western Military Aid to Ukraine

Putin wants all military aid from the West to stop immediately. This means no more money, no more weapons, no more logistical support from the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Canada – basically, the entire NATO club.

Trump, from his very first day back in office, declared no more U.S. aid to Ukraine. Other countries, however, are still sending money, military gear, and supplies. But here’s the catch, nobody is sending their own soldiers to fight this war.

Sure, the U.K. made some noise about sending troops to Ukraine, but so far, it’s been all talk, no action. And Putin is making it clear – cut off Ukraine’s supply line, or the war drags on.

5. Ukrainian Forces Must Surrender in Kursk

The final demand is that Ukrainian forces that have taken positions in certain areas of Kursk must surrender to Russian forces, and Putin promises to spare their lives. Nice little “offer”—surrender, or face the consequences.

The Hand Of Big Daddy 

On October 4, 2024, Zelenskyy met Joe Biden in the White House and put forth some demands –

–Protection for Ukraine’s grain exports (since the war has severely damaged its economy).

–Recognition of Ukraine’s territorial integrity according to the U.N. Charter.

–Withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian land.

–Establishment of a special tribunal to investigate Russian war crimes.

–Security guarantees for Ukraine within the Euro-Atlantic alliance (ahem, NATO).

All of this sounds great, except the fact that Trump is now in power and has no interest in playing along.

The “Minerals Deal” and His Business Mindset

Trump, being Trump, looks at Ukraine and asks a simple question –  “What’s in it for me?” His policy is purely transactional.

For instance, there’s a $500 billion price tag attached to the military aid that the U.S. has given Ukraine over the years. So Trump essentially says, “You want my help? Pay up. Can’t pay? Hand over your minerals.”

Ukraine is rich in critical minerals – graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium, zirconium, and rare earth elements. These resources are concentrated in two key regions – Ukrainian Shield (a massive belt of ancient rock formations). Dnipro-Donets Depression (loaded with coal, oil, and natural gas).

Trump wants control over these mineral resources in exchange for past aid. His proposal is simple enough, do not have money, no problem – just hand over your national wealth.

Zelenskyy is in a bind, while he has agreed, in principle, to a minerals deal, but he also wants a guarantee that Russia won’t attack Ukraine again.

But Trump has reiterated – “No guarantees. But if American workers are on Ukrainian soil, Russia won’t dare attack, that’s your guarantee.”

This is classic Trump, leveraging business interests as a strategic deterrent!

Under the Lens

With the Russia-Ukraine war dragging on for over two years, a potential ceasefire is on the table, at least in theory. Russian President Vladimir Putin has laid out five non-negotiable demands, and the world is waiting to see if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will comply. The wildcard in the equation is U.S. President Donald Trump, who is attempting to broker a deal that aligns more with his business instincts than traditional diplomacy.

Zelenskyy can either accept Trump’s minerals deal and risk being left vulnerable to Russia, or reject it and risk losing U.S. financial support entirely. Trump, ever the dealmaker, suggests that if Ukraine signs over its mineral rights, American workers will be on the ground, essentially creating a de facto security buffer that might deter Russia.

But what if Russia doesn’t back down? That’s the question no one seems to have a solid answer for.

Meanwhile, Putin’s demands are about reshaping global power dynamics. If Ukraine concedes, it’s a major win for Moscow. If it doesn’t, the war continues, but with a vastly reduced Western commitment.

As for Trump, his approach is purely transactional – no ideological commitment, just a trade negotiation. And Zelenskyy? He’s running out of moves, caught between a Russian leader who wants territorial control and an American leader who wants a return on investment.

So, will Ukraine bow down and what is Zelenskyy willing to trade to keep Ukraine alive?