By: Priyanka Narula, Research Analyst, GSDN
The Pacific Islands, often seen as small and remote, have become increasingly important in global geopolitics due to their strategic location, rich natural resources, and vulnerability to climate change. These islands, controlling vast Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), are key players in maritime security and global trade. As geopolitical rivalries intensify, particularly between the United States and China, the region’s significance is amplified. At the same time, the existential threat posed by climate change is reshaping the islands’ future, creating new challenges for their sovereignty, security, and migration. This article explores the strategic, environmental, and geopolitical implications of the Pacific Islands in the 21st century.
Strategic Importance
The Pacific Islands have become a battleground for global and regional powers, whose competition for control over key maritime routes and resources defines the future of the region’s geopolitical landscape. Beyond their strategic importance as maritime routes, the Pacific Islands have increasingly become a focal point in the broader geopolitical competition, attracting attention from global powers. These islands are situated adjacent to trade lanes that connect eastern Australia and New Zealand to Asia, facilitating the transportation of critical resources such as oil, iron ore, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ((ADB), 2007) and (Bureau of Infrastructure, 2013). Ports in the region also play a significant role in refuelling and other maritime services. (Air Mobility Command (AMC), 2018).
From a strategic standpoint, control over marine routes during wartime offers substantial advantages, including the ability to monitor naval movements, enforce blockades, and secure essential supply chains. Additionally, these routes serve as critical corridors for deploying naval forces and disrupting adversarial logistics, underscoring their importance in maritime security and strategic operations.
Geopolitical Competition and Power Rivalry
The Pacific Islands have emerged as a central arena of geopolitical competition and power rivalry, with global and regional powers vying for influence in a region defined by its strategic location, rich natural resources, and critical role in ensuring maritime security. Historically, the islands have attracted significant attention due to their proximity to vital maritime routes, serving as key hubs for trade, diplomatic engagement, and military interests (State, n.d.).
To advance their strategic goals, global powers involved in this competition must control key trade routes, telecommunications infrastructure, and underwater spaces. These spaces are essential for deploying submarines and monitoring undersea activities. Furthermore, the implementation of governance norms through institutions such as the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) plays a crucial role in shaping the region’s political and security dynamics. The Pacific Islands, with their strategic depth, have become pivotal in the power rivalry, as controlling this region is crucial for broader geopolitical influence.
Additionally, the location of Pacific Island countries offers significant advantages for monitoring and controlling naval movements across the Pacific, making them central to the defence strategies of major powers. This strategic depth has placed the region at the heart of the geopolitical competition, where the United States, China, and other powers increasingly vie for influence (Institute, 2020).
The concept of island chain competition further intensifies the geopolitical rivalry in the Pacific Islands. These chains, strategically located across key maritime routes, play a significant role in the broader contest for influence between global powers. As the United States, China, and other regional actors vie for control, securing these critical zones becomes central to their power strategies in the region. The island chain strategy involves three zones, but the main contestation in the Pacific focuses on the second and third island chains. Originally formulated by John Foster Dulles in 1951 as a strategy to contain the naval expansion of the USSR and China, the concept has recently regained prominence in due to contemporary geopolitical dynamics (Defence Island Chain Strategy: Steps to Checkmate China, 2018).
The second island chain, which includes Pacific states such as Guam and the Federated States of Micronesia, holds strategic significance. While China has never officially acknowledged plans to expand its military presence in the region, its actions within the framework of the island chain strategy suggest otherwise. The third island chain, which encompasses the majority of Pacific Islands, is a key area where China seeks to exert influence in order to restrict U.S. control to Hawaii during potential conflicts (Pascal, 2018).
As China’s strategic intentions have become increasingly transparent, the United States has formulated a range of strategies to counter its actions and contain its growing influence in the Pacific Islands. The initial step in this strategy involves establishing a network of military bases spanning from Australia to Guam, designed to enhance the resilience of U.S. forces against potential threats from China. Another significant development in this direction is the launch of the “Replicator” program, aimed at producing small, cost-effective drones with the capability to deliver powerful firepower. (Brands & Cooper, 2024)
After detailing the strategic competition between the United States and China in the Pacific, it is equally important to examine the role of regional players, particularly Australia, which has taken proactive steps to safeguard its interests and foster cooperation with Pacific Island nations. The Pacific Islands, situated in close proximity to Australia, hold strategic importance for the country due to their geopolitical dynamics, regional stability, and economic engagement. Stability in the region is vital for Australia’s internal security, as geopolitical tensions in the Pacific can directly impact its national interests. Moreover, the Pacific Islands are significant for Australia’s trade and investment activities, fostering economic growth and development for both regions. Australian businesses have established a strong presence in the Pacific, further solidifying the mutual benefits of economic collaboration. ( Wulandari, 2023)
Australian leaders have often referred to the Pacific Islands as the nation’s “backyard,” emphasizing the historical and strategic ties between Australia and the region (Keating, 1991) However, this traditional regional hegemony has been increasingly challenged by China in recent decades. China’s growing influence in the Pacific, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is perceived as a direct threat to Australia’s position as the dominant regional actor ( Wulandari, 2023). Given the Pacific Islands’ geographical proximity, any potential conflict in the region could significantly impact Australia’s economy and national security. Australia’s extensive trade relations with not only Pacific Island countries but also other regions make the stability of the Pacific Islands crucial for maintaining uninterrupted supply chains and ensuring maritime security. As a vital crossroad for global trade routes, a peaceful and stable Pacific is essential for safeguarding Australia’s economic interests, both within the region and beyond. Disruptions in the Pacific could ripple across Australia’s broader trade networks, impacting its ability to effectively engage with global markets ( Wulandari, 2023). To mitigate such risks and strengthen its influence, Australia has consistently provided assistance to Pacific Island nations, aiming to maintain robust diplomatic ties, promote economic stability, and enhance regional security. In 2016, Australia allocated AU$176.9 million to its Pacific Regional Program. However, this assistance saw a significant increase during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching AU$356.9 million, as the Pacific Islands were severely impacted by the health crisis (Australian Government, 2022).
To mitigate such risks and strengthen their influence, countries like Australia, the United States, and other regional powers have proactively engaged with Pacific Island nations. Their combined efforts aim to maintain robust diplomatic ties, promote economic stability, and enhance regional security. This strategic engagement underscores the understanding that the stability of the Pacific Islands is crucial for the broader geopolitical balance, impacting national security, trade, and resource management across the region. As the geopolitical competition intensifies, the ongoing cooperation and rivalry among global and regional powers will shape the future of the Pacific Islands and their pivotal role in global security and economics.
Natural Resources and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
The Pacific Islands, while often viewed as small land masses, control some of the largest Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in the world, extending their influence far into the Pacific Ocean. Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) grant sovereign rights to coastal states, allowing them to exploit and manage both living and non-living resources within their maritime boundaries, which extend up to 200 nautical miles from their coastlines ((WTO), n.d.). The EEZs of the Pacific Islands are particularly significant, encompassing vast areas rich in natural resources. These zones are home to abundant marine life, such as tuna and prawns, as well as valuable non-living resources, including gold, silver, and rare minerals critical for modern technologies ((FAO), n.d.) and (Thomas, 2012).
The Pacific Islands are home to a significant portion of the world’s tuna population, with approximately one-third of global tuna catches originating from these waters (Tuma A Key Economic Rseource in the Pacific Islands, 2001). Beyond marine life, the seabeds of these islands contain untapped reserves of rare earth materials, which are crucial for modern and renewable technologies, including batteries, electric vehicles, and aerospace components (mining, 2024). According to a World Bank report, deposits of cobalt-rich manganese crusts and mineral-rich sulphides have been identified in various parts of the Pacific Islands. These findings highlight the region’s potential as a critical supplier of minerals essential for the global transition to green energy (Clark, 2018). With the growing global demand for these resources, the Pacific Islands have become a key arena for geopolitical competition, with powerful states seeking to secure access to the region’s wealth. Control over these valuable resources now has broader implications, not only for technological progress but for the balance of power in the Pacific region. The intensifying competition over seabed mining rights directly contributes to the shifting dynamics in global geopolitics, making the Pacific Islands increasingly important on the world stage.
The geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China further underscores the strategic importance of these resources. As land-based reserves of rare earth minerals deplete, the race to secure seabed mining rights in the Pacific is intensifying, with broader implications for global technological advancements and economic dominance. For instance, China has initiated the Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association (COMRA), which focuses on deep-sea mining in the Pacific. Through this project, China has identified valuable polymetallic and cobalt nodules, as well as hydrothermal sulphide deposits, and has produced several deep-sea mining maps of the region, highlighting its growing interest in securing these crucial resources. (mining, 2024)
Climate Change in the Pacific Islands
The Pacific Islands, while often viewed as small land masses, control some of the largest Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in the world, extending their influence far into the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Islands are on the front lines of climate change, grappling with its immediate and long-term effects. Many of the islands, such as Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands, lie at low sea levels, significantly increasing their vulnerability to rising seas and extreme weather events (Bhandari, 2023). This rise poses grave threats to their socioeconomic viability, as climate change exacerbates challenges for biodiversity. The biodiversity in small islands, constrained by their limited land area, faces enormous difficulties adapting to these changes, making the problem even more acute (Taylor & Kumar, 2016)
The perils induced by climate change on biodiversity in the Pacific Islands will ultimately affect the socioeconomic status of the region (Organization, 2024). Most islanders rely heavily on biodiversity for their livelihoods, including fishing, agriculture, and eco-tourism. The degradation of these resources could have far-reaching consequences, not only for local communities but also for the geopolitics of the region. As global powers compete for control over the Pacific Islands and their abundant resources, the depletion of these resources could diminish the region’s strategic importance, altering the balance of power and interests in the Pacific.
Despite contributing only 0.02% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Pacific Islanders face severe challenges and the most alarming impacts of climate change. To address these issues, they have begun raising their concerns in international forums. Under the “polluter pays” principle, the islanders are advocating for the “loss and damage” initiative to secure compensation for the challenges brought by climate change (Organization, Climate change transforms Pacific Islands, 2024) However, their persistent demands for loss and damage have yielded nothing tangible—only empty promises have come their way.
As the Pacific Islands face existential threats from climate change, rising sea levels and extreme weather events are forcing populations to migrate, creating new geopolitical challenges as displaced communities seek refuge and resources, reshaping regional dynamics. Island states like Kiribati have taken proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change by purchasing atolls in Vanua Levu, Fiji, as part of their long-term strategy to relocate populations from their sinking homelands. However, such plans come with a multitude of political and legal challenges, particularly regarding sovereignty, land ownership, and the rights of displaced populations. The question of whether a nation can retain its sovereignty when its land and people are forced to migrate to another country raises complex legal and ethical issues. Additionally, there is the matter of the legal status of displaced persons, their rights to citizenship, and the integration of these communities into new territories (Brown & Middleton, 2024)
From a broader geopolitical perspective, the migration of entire populations due to climate change could destabilize not only the affected nations but also the region at large. The potential creation of “climate refugees” from Pacific Island nations could strain the resources and infrastructures of neighbouring countries, leading to tensions over immigration, land rights, and access to resources. As nations like Australia and New Zealand are expected to bear the brunt of migration, this could reshape their foreign policies and their approach to climate-related international cooperation. In the longer term, these movements could further intensify competition for maritime and territorial claims, especially as countries look to secure safe zones for their citizens and resources in an increasingly unstable region. This migration challenge would significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of the Pacific, highlighting the interconnectedness of environmental security and traditional geopolitical power struggles. The result may be the emergence of new alliances and tensions, as both regional powers and global stakeholders navigate the intricate web of migration, sovereignty, and resource management in the face of climate change.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Pacific Islands hold immense strategic, economic, and geopolitical significance, from their control over vital maritime routes and resources to their role in global power rivalries. Climate change further compounds their importance, presenting existential challenges that not only threaten the islands’ sovereignty but also reshape regional and global dynamics. As nations navigate these emerging complexities, the future of the Pacific will be defined by a delicate balance of resource competition, environmental sustainability, and geopolitical alliances.
