By: Meghna Dasgupta, Research Analyst, GSDN
South Asia is a home to nearly 2.04 billion people, and is marked by its rich cultural diversity and complex socio-political landscape. The region faces several external as well as internal issues which has often threated its stability and has caused significant unrest. Factors like colonial baggage, ethnic and religious divides, and border disputes remain the most significant problems in South Asia. The partition of British India in 1947, which led to the creation of the independent states of India and Pakistan resulted in communal violence of unprecedented level, displacement of millions, and left a feeling of antagonism over territorial dispute over Kashmir. The Kashmir conflict remains a trigger for both the nuclear armed states even today, with both the countries striving for control over the region. Conflict between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka had resulted in a civil war that lasted for almost three decades. Similarly, Pakistan continues to struggle with sectarian violence between the Shia and Sunni Muslims causing tensions and unrest. Hindus and Muslims in India have often engaged in riots which has been further exacerbated by political actors, and information warfare.
The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, which resulted in the dramatic ousting of Sheikh Hasina further highlights the political instability in the region. Sheikh Hasina has however claimed that this upheaval was the result of a foreign interference. This political instability in Bangladesh will likely cause security and economic difficulties for India. Pakistan has also been struggling with economic inefficiencies since the 2022 flood, and had sought help from the IMF and bilateral creditors. The 2024 elections in Pakistan were marred by allegations of irregularity and lack of fairness. The influence of the military remained significant, which further orchestrated various aspects of the election. Terrorism in Pakistan has worsened since the Taliban came to power in the neighbouring Afghanistan and the collapse of ceasefire with Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP).
Sri-Lanka has been struggling with economic hardships, and the recent elections are a hope towards a more stable economy, that promotes sustainable and inclusive growth. This election aims to attract investors, so as to help quarter of 22 million population raise out of poverty. In 2023, Nepal faces its first recession in over six decades. Nepal is also under scrutiny for still discriminating against women, even after amending its citizenship law in 2023. According to UNICEF, 33 percent of girls and 9 percent of boys are married before the age of 18 (Human Rights Watch , 2023).The rate of child marriage is believed to have increased during the pandemic. India has been facing criticisms for its subtle shift towards right-wing politics, and nationalistic Hindutva ideologies. This has caused a feeling of insecurity among the religious minorities. The 2023 Manipur clashes further exasperated the tensions. 2023-2024 has been the year of elections, or campaigning for several South Asian countries, and the chaos and struggles during this period raises the question whether democracy is struggling in South Asia or not.
The colonial past of South-Asia has set a precedence for its contemporary challenges. The strategy of “divide and rule” led to ethnic and religious tensions, particularly between the Hindus and the Muslims. The 1947 partition sowed distrust, and animosity between India and Pakistan, leading to the long-standing violent rivalry. This remains a major source of instability in South Asia. Similarly, the arbitrary drawing of Durand line between Pakistan and Afghanistan during the colonial era has remained a source of tension between both the countries. One of the most persistent problems in South Asia is the territorial disputes. The 2020 border dispute between India and Nepal in the Lipulekh-Limpladora-Kalapani region has harmed the long-standing ties between the two countries. The conflict worsened the personal relationship of both the countries, leading to hostile feelings. Areas of dispute like Kashmir, Siachen Glacier, Aksai Chin, Sir Creek, and Doklam has been a reason for contention between countries like India, Pakistan, Bhutan, and China (Nayak, 2023). These grievances and disputes are fueled nationalism, geo-political factors, and historical grudges. China plays a significant role in the dynamics of South-Asia. The Belt and Roads Initiative (BRI) increased China’s presence in South Asia. The BRI serves a way for China to ensure economic development in Asia. Nepal who has been historically dependent on India, views China as a new partner, and an alternative to its dependence on India. Thus, the 2020 standoff was viewed by several scholars as an outcome of growing Chinese influence in South Asia. China is trying to challenge the Indian sway in the region. China has also established a strategic post at Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port. The recent military pact between Male and China, and withdrawal of Indian troops from Maldives is also a concern for India and USA. Pakistan is a key partner in China’s BRI project. This new-fashioned Cold War has had profound impact on the regional dynamics of South Asia, threatening its internal stability.
Terrorism poses one of the most significant threats to the stability of South Asia. The South Asian countries have not been able to create a “truly pluralistic society”. Pakistan in particular has been the breeding ground for several terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). These groups have been the perpetrators of terror and violence not only in Pakistan, but in the neighboring South Asian countries as well. Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia have been accused of funding extremist movements in the region. The U.S. intervention in Afghanistan and its subsequent withdrawal from the country had long lasting impacts on the regional security of Soth Asia. Political Instability still remains a major source of concern in the region. Nepal transitioned from a monarchy to a republic in 2008, after decades of Maoist insurgency. However, the region’s political landscape is still not stable, and undergoes frequent government changes. Bangladesh is currently struggling with severe political turmoil. The protests against job quotas steamrolled into a much broader movement which has led to the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. Her sudden exit will have far reaching consequences on the bilateral relation of Bangladesh with its South Asian neighbors. Amidst the ongoing struggle, transboundary water cooperation between India and Bangladesh is a critical area that needs attention.
Poverty and unemployment remain one of the most critical factors contributing to instability in South Asia. Countries like Afghanistan and Nepal remain plagued by poverty. 20 percent of the population in South Asia still lives under the international poverty line (TM Tonmoy Islam). This fuels social discontent and distrust. The rise of Taliban and Mujahedin, and the subjugation of Rohingyas in Myanmar led to mass migration to the neighboring South Asian countries, particularly Bangladesh. This creates a security dilemma, which further increases tension. South Asia’s reaction to mass exodus has always been positive despite its own complex ethnic structure. The region is extremely susceptible to natural disasters like cyclone, floods, and droughts. These have become more frequent in the past few decades. Countries like Bangladesh and Maldives faces existential threats from rising sea levels. South Asia is an agriculture intensive region, thus making this region extremely susceptible to climate change. Both India and Pakistan are still grappling with water crisis, which further exacerbates the difficulties regarding the sharing of Indus River water.
Unrest and Instability in South Asia is a result of several complex factors like poverty, political instability, colonial baggage, territorial dispute, terrorism, weak civil institutions, environmental challenges, and geo-political rivalries. The consequences of the instability are far reaching, and have an impact on world politics as well. A stable South Asia is crucial for development of India. India’s Neighborhood First Policy, and institutions like SAARC play a significant role in mitigating the tensions in the region. Peaceful relationship and synergetic co-development of the South Asian countries should be the ultimate goal.
