By: Chethana Enugula
The collusion of their strategic interests has propped up a new challenge for India – a strong three-sided grouping and a menace with multidimensional implications threatening the security, economic and diplomatic outlook in South Asia. This new nexus fuelled by the spread of the Belt and Road Initiative of China, the economic stability and military modernization effort of Pakistan and the legitimacy of international recognition of Afghanistan governed by the Taliban regime opens opportunities to restructure the present power status quo in the region and even surround India with the strategic challenges.
In India’s view, the regional setup consisting of many influential neighbours is not a mere diplomatic contest but an actual threat to the national interests of the country. The plan endangers the stability in the region, border security, and existing trade routes that all rely on India’s position as a central power in the region. The military, economic, and diplomatic aspects of the trilateral form a complex multi-front security dilemma that makes India thoroughly reconsider its value system of defense and foreign policies.
Genesis and Evolution of Trilateral
The so-called trilateral dialogue mechanism was officially initiated back in 2017 to enable China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to develop political confidence, hone anti-terrorism collaboration and promote economic integration in the region. It soon encountered some potholes, with Pakistan and Afghanistan rubbing each other in the wrong way, but top-level contact has managed to renew and keep it alive over the last few years.
There was a true turning point when the foreign ministers informally met in Beijing in May 2025. They once again promised to combine their efforts in security and economic connectivity. They ended the affair with some of their major successes. Pakistan and Afghanistan decided to improve their embassy relations at the diplomatic level and appointed ambassadors, which was a hit endorsed by China. They also approved a widening of the Belt and Road initiative and indicated preparations to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor into Afghanistan. All these commitments helped the talks shift from just talks to real actions towards greater integration.
Through the two-day interaction, the key agenda was counter-terrorism, eco-integration, the expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) footprint, and trust-building. The best moment of it all was in July 2025 when Russia acknowledged the Taliban officially, giving the bloc real diplomatic traction and insinuating that other governments could follow soon.
Strategic Objectives of the Trilateral Members
China’s strategic goals in the Trilateral are strongly interconnected with BRI and CPEC, but having pro-BRI incumbency of Burhanay in Afghanistan may bring a new route into the world of Beijing, the Wakhan Corridor, which will give direct overland access to China, skirting geopolitical strangles and making Beijing the coordinator of the main trade in the region. In the meantime, the Afghanistan state, with its untapped mineral reserves valued at $1 trillion (copper, rare earth, lithium), gives China the bargaining chip in its approach towards the Taliban regime in the context of resource diplomacy; state-owned enterprises have already started discussing the extraction rights of oil and copper projects.
Security issues support economic reasons. Beijing is keen on ensuring that the anti-China militant groups do not spread to Xinjiang or Pakistan, whereby CPEC-related also suffered the loss of Chinese lives in several militant attacks since 2021. Pakistan, in turn, views CPEC as a lifeline, including much-needed infrastructure and energy schemes through which it sustains its economy, as well as increases its geopolitical influence by enabling Afghanistan to gain access to Gwadar Port and new pipelines to Central Asia. Islamabad also considers the CPEC extension to be an effective counter-strategy to the so-called Indian encirclement strategy, which ties regional stability to economic growth.
Pakistan is also highly dependent on Chinese military equipment, as 81 percent of the Chinese military imports in Pakistan come in the form of J-10C fighter jets, J-35 stealth fighters awaiting delivery, and HQ-9 air-defense systems rolling out. This strategic deal provides Pakistan with a hedge against India, which has had high military capabilities, as it was reported in May 2025 to have given the strategic visions in the India-Pakistan conflict by providing Beijing with live-standing situations regarding the movements of the Indian troops.
The issues of international isolation and huge economic distress are piling up in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The regime is resorting to the trilateral deal, which is a potential saviour in the name of legitimacy and development. The overall objective is to board the BRI and continue with CPEC, which can result in much-needed foreign investment, especially in the mineral-rich country.
Impact on India’s Security Interests
The emerging “China-Pakistan-Afghanistan” trilateral nexus presents complex security considerations to India and produces a challenge that is not only multidimensional but also emanates from a military, economic, and political battlefield.
First is the rising China-Pakistan military nexus, which is the most pressing among the three. Beijing maintains the defense posture of Pakistan through large arms sales, the result of which is the ability of Pakistan to hedge against India. The large field tempo of engagement observed in the May 2025 battle, a collaborative, rapid-paced, and integrated threat involving the real-time sharing of intelligence and the use of UAVs in China, resembles a well-orchestrated threat.
The second problematic front is Afghanistan. Though the Taliban have been promising to be cooperative in counter-terrorism, the government continues to serve as a hub for various terror groups. According to reports published by the United Nations, the Turkistan Islamic Party, and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Affiliates of Al-Qaeda are permitted to practice and launch assaults along with the Taliban regime. Organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed that had past connections with Al-Qaeda and were also found in the earlier version of the Taliban still threaten the Indian nation, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir.
The emerging nexus also exposes India’s geographic vulnerabilities, especially the Line of Actual Control with China and the critical tract in the Siliguri Corridor. This Strait is only 20-22 km across, crosses Assam and is the only terrestrial connection between India and its northeastern states, which opens this Corridor to yet another unending source of danger. Beijing’s swelling infrastructure in the Chumbi Valley heralds the encirclement possibilities that can see Indian forces extended along several borders.
There is also economic rivalry. The Chinese-led plan to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan provides a landlocked Kabul with easy access to the Gwadar port in Pakistan in response to the India-led International North-South transport corridor and Chabahar port. The project will pose a direct challenge to the long-term Central-Asian connectivity dreams of New Delhi because it provides an alternative way in which trade can be carried out to Central Asia.
India’s Strategic Response
India is being multilateral and multifaceted by combining modernization of its military, outward relationships, and additional economic routes.
The modernization of the military places an emphasis on the indigenous manufacturing of the products in the context of the “Make in India” and “Atmanirbhar Bharat” principles, which lowers foreign sourcing and increases the autonomy of the technological production in the military sector. The major improvements come in the form of native helicopters and Apache assault helicopters, as well as state-of-the-art innovations such as AI-powered drones and electromagnetic arms.
Realizing the weaknesses of the Siliguri Corridor, India is also planning alternative routes of northeastern connectivity with the major investment of border infrastructure in Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Uttarakhand. Planned projects include India-China border roads, advanced landing grounds, and new railway lines so that forces can be quickly deployed and avoid reliance on the vulnerable Corridor.
Diplomatically, India applies the Neighbourhood First policy when dealing with immediate neighbours using consultative and outcome-based engagements. India continues to support humanitarian assistance and development aid to Afghanistan, as well as attempting to thwart Chinese and Pakistani influence by realistically engaging them, even as it continues to beef up its influence in the country in the face of strained relationships. The enhanced alliances with the Quad members and states of the Central Asia region provide flexibility and influence on diplomatic platforms and strategic dimensions to overcome trilateral problems.
On the economic front, India is moving fast towards the development of alternative corridors, especially the use of the International North-South Transport Corridor and the operationalization of Chabahar Port. These projects give the Central Asian and Russian countries important access routes that bypass Pakistan.
Future Scenarios and Implications
The future of the trilateral is determined by multiple factors, including enhancing integration on the one hand and major internal problems on the other. One of them is formalized bloc deepening, where further Chinese economic investment in the region, the growth of CPEC opening Afghan mineral resources, and a greater degree of security cooperation would take place. The international endorsement that is indicated by the diplomatic upgrade of Pakistan and Afghanistan and the recognition of the Taliban by Russia is an indication that the consensus is growing in acceptance of this bloc.
Nevertheless, there are high internal obstacles that may block complete realization. The stability of Taliban regimes is uncertain, and as long as the country has internal conflicts, as well as threats from rival groups such as ISIS-K. The ability of the Taliban to actually control terrorist activities, especially those with regime connections, is doubtful in spite of the promises. The CPEC project has security risks, is not financially feasible, can disrupt the economies, has risks of debt burden, and the current delays in the projects have viability issues.
Recommendation
India needs to be more focused on a quick acceleration of indigenous defense production with an emphasis on the technological growth of its AI-based systems, hypersonic systems, and advanced air defense, among others. Additional progress on border infrastructure, especially in sensitive regions such as Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, is vital in order to avoid operational readiness and the ability to respond in time.
The step up in intelligence gathering of terror groups against Afghanistan-based terror organizations, as well as multilateral pressure against the Taliban to take verifiable counter-terrorism measures, will solve short-term security questions. On the economic front, the new willingness to proceed with INSTC and the operationalization of Chabahar Port further offer major connectivity options to Chinese-controlled routes.
On the diplomatic front, the revival of the philosophies of the Neighbourhood First Policy by emulating pragmatic flexibility, with the support of more powerful entities as well as alliances and the search for new alliances with greater strategic interest, provides greater spheres of influence working against the influence of China. India has developed potent public diplomacy to frame its regional role and strategic vision, which is the fundamental story that meets the concerns about encirclement.
Conclusion
The China-Afghanistan-Pakistan, theoretically and practically, is a developing, serious problem that needs to be met soundly and strategically with a mixed approach. The extent of strategic autonomy that can enable India to safeguard its national interests is the capacity to be resilient, innovative, and proactive in all major spheres: military, economic, and diplomatic. The long perspective indicates an even more competitive, multi-polar S. Asia where India’s strategic fortunes will be decided by its overall reaction to this complicated geopolitical issue, and its regional influence/connectivity ambitions remain securely intact.
