By: Sonalika Singh, Research Analyst, GSDN

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India in 2025 has emerged as a landmark development in South Asian geopolitics, raising critical questions about international water diplomacy and bilateral relations between India and Pakistan. The treaty, signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank, was designed to fairly allocate the waters of the Indus River system between the two nations following the 1947 Partition. For over six decades, it withstood wars, political upheaval, and numerous regional crises, serving as a rare example of sustained cooperation in an otherwise volatile relationship.

India’s decision to suspend the treaty came in the wake of a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025 in which Pakistan-armed and trained terrorists killed 26 persons on the basis of religious profiling. Accusing Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, India invoked national security concerns as justification for halting the flow of water to Pakistan from dams and river systems under its control. This unprecedented move has not only intensified tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors but also raised alarms over the weaponization of water as a strategic tool. The suspension has far-reaching consequences threatening Pakistan’s water security, challenging international norms, and potentially destabilizing the fragile peace in a region already grappling with climate stress and political uncertainty.

The 1947 partition of British India divided the Indus River basin between the newly formed nations of India and Pakistan. As a result, Pakistan became the lower riparian state, reliant on water flows originating in India. Crucially, key irrigation headworks Madhopur (on the Ravi River) and Ferozepur (on the Sutlej River) fell within Indian territory. This geographical shift led to immediate disputes over water access and usage.

Following the expiration of the Standstill Agreement on April 1, 1948, India began to withhold water supplies to Pakistan from the eastern rivers. This sudden disruption created an acute water crisis in Pakistan’s Punjab province. To avoid escalation, both nations signed an interim Inter-Dominion Agreement on May 4, 1948. Under this accord, India agreed to continue supplying water to Pakistan in return for compensation until a permanent solution could be reached.

In 1951, unable to secure a lasting resolution, Pakistan took the dispute to the United Nations, accusing India of deliberately interrupting its water supply. In response, the World Bank under the leadership of President Eugene Black offered to mediate. This led to a series of technical negotiations and diplomatic discussions involving both countries, aiming for a sustainable, long-term water-sharing framework.

After nearly a decade of intensive negotiations, the Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960. The signatories included Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Pakistani President Ayub Khan, and World Bank representative W.A.B. Illiff. Although signed in September, the treaty was applied retroactively from April 1, 1960.

The Indus Waters Treaty divided the Indus River system between India and Pakistan in a way that granted India control over the three eastern rivers Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej while Pakistan received exclusive rights to the three western rivers Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. To ensure the effective implementation and ongoing administration of the treaty, the Permanent Indus Commission was established as a bilateral body responsible for maintaining regular communication between the two countries, sharing data on water flows and development projects, and resolving disputes through dialogue and technical consultations. Over the decades, the treaty has been widely recognized as one of the most successful and enduring international water-sharing agreements, withstanding periods of war and heightened diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan.

The treaty permits India to construct storage facilities and run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the western rivers, provided they do not adversely affect Pakistan’s water rights. Over the decades, the Indus Waters Treaty has withstood numerous challenges, including three wars, serving as a rare example of sustained cooperation between the two nations.

The immediate trigger for India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty was a terrorist attack near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir on April 22, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of 26 individuals. India accused Pakistan of supporting state-sponsored terrorism, leading to the decision to place the treaty in abeyance. The Indian government stated that the suspension would remain in effect until Pakistan ceases its support for cross-border terrorism as “blood and water cannot flow together”. This move has significantly strained bilateral relations and heightened tensions in the region.

Following the suspension of cooperation under the Indus Waters Treaty, India undertook several actions that have heightened tensions and disrupted the established water-sharing arrangements. One significant move was the release of water from the Uri Dam into the Jhelum River without prior notification to Pakistan, resulting in unexpected downstream flooding. Additionally, India closed the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River, causing a substantial reduction in water flow to Pakistan. Further escalating the situation, India announced plans to halt the flow of water through the Kishanganga Dam on the Neelum River, which would further diminish Pakistan’s water supply.

Pakistan has frequently faced accusations of involvement in terrorism through its support of various designated terrorist organizations. These allegations have been made by several countries, including its neighbours Afghanistan, Iran, and India, as well as by the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France. The accusations pertain to Pakistan’s support for terrorist activities both within South Asia and globally.

For over 45 years, Pakistan has been widely accused of sponsoring and supporting terrorism in India, particularly in the region of Jammu and Kashmir and earlier in Punjab. Successive Indian governments and intelligence agencies have pointed to Pakistan’s deep-rooted involvement in cross-border terrorism through state-backed groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen.

In 2008, Daniel Byman, a professor and senior analyst at the Center for Middle East Policy, described Pakistan as potentially the world’s most active state sponsor of terrorism. A decade later, in 2018, former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif suggested that elements within Pakistan’s establishment may have played a role in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba.

During a 2019 visit to the United States, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan admitted that 30,000–40,000 armed terrorists were operating on Pakistani soil. He further stated that previous governments had concealed this reality from the U.S. for over 15 years during the War on Terror.

The terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, claimed the lives of at least 26 civilians. While the attack was initially claimed by ‘The Resistance Front’, a claim later retracted India accused Pakistan of orchestrating the assault. Pakistan denied any involvement.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, has also reportedly acknowledged that the country supported terrorist groups for over three decades, calling it a strategic mistake linked to U.S.-led foreign policy decisions.

In response to India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam attack, Pakistan strongly condemned the move, calling it a violation of international law and a direct threat to its water security. The Pakistani government urged India to reverse the decision, emphasizing the treaty’s critical role in ensuring regional peace and stability.

Pakistan’s concerns are compounded by existing water scarcity issues, exacerbated by climate change. The country is already facing severe water shortages, with over 10 million people (about half the population of New York) lacking access to clean drinking water following the catastrophic 2022 floods. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has further intensified these challenges, threatening the livelihoods of millions, thus hitting Pakistan where it hurts the most. Clearly, Pakistan is now feeling the real heat of perpetrating terrorism in India for the last 45 years.

The Indus Waters Treaty does not contain provisions for unilateral suspension by either party. Article XII (3) of the treaty allows for modifications through mutual agreement, but unilateral actions are not permitted. India’s suspension raises questions about the treaty’s legal enforceability and the mechanisms available for dispute resolution. The World Bank, which played a pivotal role in facilitating the treaty, has stated that its role is limited to that of a facilitator and has refrained from intervening in the current dispute.

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty carries significant strategic and environmental implications for both India and Pakistan. India’s recent actions, such as unannounced water releases and dam closures, have been interpreted by Pakistan and international observers as a deliberate effort to weaponize water using it as a tool of political and strategic pressure. This echoes historical practices where control over water was wielded to subdue adversaries, raising serious concerns about regional stability.

Experts caution that manipulating river flows can severely impact agriculture, particularly in Pakistan where millions depend on the Indus River system for irrigation and drinking water. Such disruption not only threatens food security but can also lead to lasting ecological damage, including soil degradation and reduced biodiversity. Compounding the issue is the growing impact of climate change. Both countries are experiencing shifting weather patterns, melting glaciers, and declining river flows factors that the original treaty, signed in 1960, does not adequately address. These evolving environmental realities highlight the urgent need to modernize the Indus Waters Treaty to include provisions for climate resilience and sustainable water management. Without cooperative adaptation, the treaty risks becoming obsolete, further intensifying tensions and undermining a historically successful framework for peaceful water sharing.

Pakistan has formally appealed to India to reconsider its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, emphasizing the treaty’s significance for regional stability and the well-being of millions who depend on the Indus River system.

Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) termed India’s action an “act of war,” asserting that any attempt to stop or divert water allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty would be met with a robust response. The NSC emphasized that water is a vital national interest for Pakistan and a lifeline for its 240 million people. Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, warned that India cannot unilaterally suspend the treaty, noting the World Bank’s role as a key stakeholder in the agreement. In response, Pakistan is preparing to take legal action, including raising the issue at the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or the International Court of Justice, arguing that India has violated the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Additionally, Pakistan plans to issue a formal diplomatic notice to India challenging the suspension. The situation underscores the critical importance of the Indus Waters Treaty and the need for both nations to engage in dialogue to address concerns and uphold their commitments.  

Treaty modernization is also crucial to address contemporary challenges, including climate change and environmental sustainability. Amending the Indus Waters Treaty to incorporate provisions that account for these factors can ensure its relevance and effectiveness in the current geopolitical and environmental landscape. Experts suggest integrating more frequent periodic reviews, involving environmental and climate experts in monitoring, and developing neutral data exchange processes to strengthen the treaty’s framework.

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has brought India and Pakistan to a crucial crossroads. While the immediate prospects for resolution appear grim, the moment calls for courage, diplomacy, and vision. Renewed dialogue, international engagement, and treaty reform could transform this crisis into an opportunity for lasting peace and cooperation in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

India has given Pakistan to choose one option only – either support terrorism or ensure water for its 240 million citizens. The choice now solely rests on Pakistan.