By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN
The recent Russia-India-China (RIC) Trilateral relations uniting to form an alternative power bloc against the United States has become a topic of intense discussion in global politics. Through platforms like BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and bilateral engagements, these countries have signalled their intent to reshape the global economic and political landscape. These nations, with their significant populations, growing economies, and military capabilities, are increasingly asserting their influence on the global stage, seeking to create a counterbalance to Western hegemony. As the world transitions toward a multipolar order, the growing cooperation among these three nations, driven by shared interests and strategic alignments, raises questions about their potential to challenge the longstanding dominance of the United States. This group opposes unilateralism and supports the idea of a multipolar global governance model. The RIC triangle has the potential to reshape the international system in which Asia speaks with a stronger voice, multipolarity gains ground, and new forms of regional cooperation are tested against the limits of history, mistrust, and competing ambitions.
What derived this relation
US President Donald Trump’s trade war has hit countries trading with Russia by imposing steep tariffs. Now, India’s oil imports are facing penalties as high as 50%. The goal was to cut Russia’s export revenue and push India to scale back ties. The recent economic crisis between US-India relations has been one of the greatest crises for Indian diplomacy in decades. The fresh Trump tariffs which have specifically targeted BRICS countries, and India in particular, have once again made India suspect of the USA. In a world marked by turbulence, fractured alliances, and the decline of unquestioned Western supremacy, the rationale for closer strategic cooperation between Moscow, New Delhi, and Beijing is stronger than ever.
The rise to the idea of RIC and multipolar world was drawn from the post-Cold War euphoria. In the late 1990s, foreign minister of Russia Yevgeny Primakov proposed a “strategic triangle,” in which they aim to break free of Western dominance and reassert Eurasia as a geopolitical centre. Over the years, it facilitated over 20 ministerial-level meetings, fostering cooperation in foreign policy, economics, & security among the 3 nations. Unipolarity of U.S. had forcing sanctions and crisis have pushed Russia closer to the East, India forced to maintain its balancing act with Moscow and the United States, and China has emerged as the rival to Western global influence. Unlike Western alliances bound by shared ideology, the RIC triangle unites three countries with sharply different political systems. Yet all shares a preference for independent foreign policies, resistance to Western dominance, and a vision of a multipolar order.
India and Russia share a Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership that has grown for over 70 years. Their ties cover trade, defence, energy, science, and technology. Russia supplies a big part of India’s oil, and both countries are building an “Energy Bridge” with nuclear, hydrocarbons, hydel, and renewable projects. Together, they can Western banking systems by transacting in their own national currencies—rupees, yuan, and roubles—bolstering regional connectivity. This trilateral cooperation extends beyond trade to industrial modernisation in aerospace, advanced materials, and mining technology, emphasising self-reliance and diminished dependence on Western technologies. Defence cooperation, highlighted by India’s push for indigenous weapon manufacturing, further fuels economic growth and technology sharing, supported by regular dialogues and joint exercises with Russia.
Change in global power dynamics
Together, Russia, India, and China account for nearly 30 million square kilometres, over 2.5 billion people, vast natural resources, and combined GDP approaching one-fifth of global output. China is the world’s second-largest economy, India has become the fastest-growing major economy, and Russia remains a formidable military and energy power. They hold the world’s second largest, fourth largest (soon to be third) and 11th largest economies and account for 23% of the world’s GDP.
India, China, and Russia are employing several key mechanisms to bypass the US dollar in trade settlements and reduce reliance on Western financial systems. RIC have established currency swap arrangements to settle trade in their own national currencies, allowing them to bypass the dollar and avoid sanctions. This enables direct conversion and payment without using the dollar as an intermediary currency. This structure facilitates trade settlements purely in Indian rupees without converting to the dollar. Together, these mechanisms provide a survival strategy under US sanctions and trade restrictions, reducing transaction costs and financial vulnerabilities by creating a multipolar trade settlement environment outside the dollar sphere.
For example, China and Russia do nearly 95% of their trade settlements in yuan and roubles. India’s trade with the Russia-led EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union) has jumped to $69 billion in 2024, mainly through Russian oil. India’s exports to Russia have also doubled in recent years, rising from $2.39 billion in 2019 to $4.88 billion in 2025. Both countries are even looking to restart a rupee-ruble payment system to cut down dependence on the dollar. India and Russia actively use rupees and roubles in growing trade volumes, including energy imports to India.
Their combined power extends beyond economics. The trilateral relation between Russia, India and China is game-changing. RIC consists of a third of the world’s population and a fifth of the global landmass. Each of the three nations are geopolitical power in their own neighbourhood, i.e., Russia in Eastern Europe and Central Asia; India in South Asia and the Indian Ocean; China across East Asia and the Pacific. Scientifically, technologically and industrially, they are amongst the leaders in the world and possess vast resources of oil, gas, food and minerals. They are amongst the top four military powers of the world, after the US.
China brings industrial capacity and financial resources, India contributes human capital and technological dynamism, and Russia offers energy, natural resources, and defence technologies. A stronger RIC framework could evolve into a regional platform for security cooperation. And most importantly they could counterbalance Western dominance in setting global norms. In global forums such as BRICS, the G20, or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, closer RIC alignment enhances the ability of emerging powers to shape debates on trade, climate change, finance, and technological development.
Challenges and future prospects
Russia often views RIC primarily as a geopolitical lever against the West, India tends to fluctuate between Eastern and Western ties, China envisions RIC as part of a broader Eurasian architecture anchored by its Belt and Road Initiative. Russia remains protective of its influence in Central Asia, India remains wary of China’s closeness with Pakistan, China must balance its ties to Islamabad with its desire for stable relations with New Delhi. Sino-Indian boarder tensions are unsolved and India’s ties with the western States and its role in QUAD is concerning for Russia to oppose western hegemony. This alignment with Western powers complicates India’s role in any anti-U.S. alliance. While India maintains a policy of strategic autonomy, balancing its relationships with both Western and non-Western powers, its deepening ties with the United States, particularly in defence and technology, create a delicate balancing act. These mismatched priorities dilute momentum remain the most serious fault in the relation. All this problem shows how fragile this trilateral relation could be and how important it is to resolve these obstacles in order to achieve the common goal.
Russia’s economic constraints further complicate the equation. While it possesses significant military and energy resources, its economy is heavily reliant on energy exports and is significantly smaller than those of China and India. Western sanctions have further weakened Russia’s economic position, making it dependent on China for trade and investment. Another critical factor is the differing national priorities of these three countries. China’s aggressive foreign policy and territorial ambitions often clash with the interests of its neighbours, including India. Its dominance in any potential alliance could create unease for India and Russia, both of which value their sovereignty and strategic independence. India may hesitate to fully commit to an anti-U.S. alliance, especially if it risks alienating key partners like the United States, which provides critical technology and investment.
Despite these challenges, the potential for India, China and Russia to form an alternative power bloc cannot be dismissed. The global order is undergoing a profound transformation, with the rise of multipolarity challenging the unipolar dominance of the United States. The growing influence of non-Western institutions like BRICS and the SCO reflects a broader shift toward a more balanced global system. The economic dimension of this potential alliance is particularly significant. By promoting trade in local currencies and developing alternative financial systems, these countries aim to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar and Western financial institutions. This shift could have far-reaching implications for global trade and finance, weakening the United States’ ability to use economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy. Moreover, their combined technological advancements, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, space exploration, and renewable energy, could position them as leaders in the next phase of global innovation.
Conclusion
The potential of India-Russia-China Trilateral relation is yet to be defined since its more rhetoric than reality. However, the trio’s capabilities grow as the rivalry between U.S. and RIC deepens. Indeed, its progress since 1998 has been uneven and often symbolic but in the fast-moving world, Russia-India-China cannot afford disunity. The RIC triangle is an unfinished project and may not become a formal alliance. But it demonstrates that flexible and multipolar world that provides diversity while pursuing shared strategic interests. If the trio can overcome mistrust, it has the potential to become not only a stabilizing force in Eurasia but many other countries. In a century where power is diffusing and old hierarchies are fading, the RIC trio may well prove to be one of the keys to building a more balanced and multipolar world.
If Moscow, New Delhi, and Beijing can strengthen their strategic planning, institutionalize cooperation, and draw lessons from other multilateral experiments, the RIC triangle could rise from a rhetorical construct into a genuine pillar of global governance. These developments signal a robust and growing alliance designed to challenge the current global economic order, create new supply chains, and foster a global system prioritising independence, resilience, and regional currency use, marking a shift from unipolar Western dominance to a more diversified multipolar world order.
