At a critical moment in the Ukraine war, Russia is launching one of its biggest military conscription drives in years. President Vladimir Putin has signed off on a new draft, pulling in 160,000 men between 18 and 30 to join the armed forces. That’s 10,000 more than last year and over 15,000 more than three years ago, according to Russian state media.

Conscription isn’t new for Russia, it happens twice a year, but the numbers are steadily rising as Putin pushes to expand the military. Three years ago, Russia had around 1 million military personnel; now, it’s closer to 1.5 million.

This latest draft comes as the war in Ukraine reaches a pivotal moment. Moscow has been leaning on North Korean fighters to hold its ground in the Kursk region while steadily pushing forward in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, Washington is trying to broker negotiations to end the conflict.

Officially, Russia doesn’t send fresh conscripts straight into combat zones. But reports suggest that many are pressured or tricked into signing contracts that send them straight to the front lines. Others have ended up in the crosshairs, like during Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk last August.

While Russian forces continue heavy attacks in Donetsk and bombard Ukrainian cities, diplomacy is also in motion. Senior Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev is heading to Washington this week to meet Trump’s top aide Steve Witkoff. This marks the first time a high-ranking Russian official has visited the U.S. since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, signaling a shift in U.S.-Russia relations since Trump returned to office in January.

Trump himself recently admitted in a interview that Russia might be “dragging their feet” in negotiations. Putin, for his part, outright rejected Trump’s latest ceasefire proposal – unless, of course, U.S. sanctions are lifted. Talks continue, but so do the airstrikes and military maneuvers.

Trump Spares Russia from Tariffs as Putin’s Top Negotiator Visits Washington, Ukraine Left in the Cold
Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs kicks in today, hitting multiple countries with major new trade barriers – but Russia is nowhere on the list. And that’s raising eyebrows, especially as war-torn Ukraine faces a 10% tariff from the U.S.

The White House has offered no explanation for why Russia is getting a free pass, but the timing is telling. Putin’s investment envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, one of the most U.S.-savvy figures in Russia’s elite, was in Washington yesterday, meeting with top Trump officials. Dmitriev, the highest-ranking Russian official to visit the U.S. since the 2022 invasion, was invited by Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff.

His visit comes as the Trump administration continues pushing for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. While unveiling the tariffs on Wednesday, Trump spoke of “good cooperation” between the two countries and reiterated his desire to end the war.

That message didn’t sit well in Kyiv. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called out Trump’s repeated praise of Russia, suggesting that Ukraine is being sidelined. With Washington warming up to Moscow while slapping Ukraine with new tariffs, the power dynamics in this war just got even more complicated.

Russia-Ukraine, The Long Road to “Peace”
Putin’s strategy has been clear – grind Ukraine down militarily, fracture Western support, and push Kyiv into accepting a settlement on his terms. Russia has steadily gained ground in eastern Ukraine, leveraged support from countries like North Korea and China, and waited for political shifts in the West to work in its favor.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has been holding on with Western aid, but with US out of the picture, cracks are showing. The U.S. and Europe are struggling with war fatigue, economic pressures, and shifting political ecosystem. If Ukraine keeps losing territory it may have to consider some form of negotiation – though Zelensky will resist any deal that cedes Ukrainian land.

A potential scenario? A frozen conflict, like Korea, no real peace, but a heavily militarized stalemate with periodic skirmishes. Another possibility –  a Ukraine-Russia deal brokered by the U.S. that forces Kyiv to accept unfavorable conditions in exchange for Western security guarantees.

Russia-US. A New Era of “Transactional” Diplomacy
Trump’s return changes the game completely. His foreign policy isn’t about ideology; it’s about deals. He sees Putin not as an enemy, but as a player he can negotiate with. By exempting Russia from tariffs and engaging in backchannel talks, Trump is signaling that he’s open to “resetting” relations – possibly in exchange for concessions in Ukraine, the Middle East, or even trade agreements.

But this doesn’t mean a full-on U.S.-Russia alliance. The American deep state (Pentagon, CIA, Congress) remains deeply anti-Russia. If Trump pushes too hard for reconciliation, he’ll face massive pushback domestically. And if Russia gets too aggressive – say, by escalating in NATO-adjacent regions – Trump might be forced to take a tougher stance.

What’s the Likely Outcome?
A shaky ceasefire in Ukraine, likely imposed under U.S. pressure, leaving Russia with some territorial gains while Ukraine gets military and economic guarantees from the West.

A temporary US-Russia thaw under Trump, more about tactical cooperation than true alliance, with Russia potentially giving something in return (nuclear arms control talks, Middle East cooperation, etc.).

A return to tensions if Trump loses in 2028, because any future U.S. administration will likely revert to a hardline stance on Russia.

One wild card is China. If Russia gets too close to the U.S., it might strain its deepening ties with Beijing, which has been a crucial economic and political ally. A balancing act for Putin, no doubt.

The war won’t end in a clean victory for either side, and U.S.-Russia relations will remain fluid – transactional under Trump, hostile under anyone else. But for Ukraine? The future looks increasingly like a compromise, not a triumph.