By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN

In the elections last year in October 2023 the government of Poland changed and the former Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk from 2007 to 2014 was re-elected. From 2014 to 2019 Tusk was President of the European Council, and from 2019 to 2022 he was the president of the European People’s Party. Change of the government came with many new challenges as they promised to make things better for the people of the Poland. New Government has to face challenges such as rising Inflation, changing migration, Energy Crises, Economics and strengthening their Military Power.

Poland has historically occupied a central position in European great power politics. The presence of powerful and assertive neighbours such as Russia and Germany have significantly shaped the course of Polish history. From a geopolitical perspective, Russia and Germany have often held divergent views. They have consistently agreed on Poland’s strategic importance in Europe. Both nations considered influence over Poland a natural right, making the country a potential battleground.

Importance of Poland in Europe

Poland became the part of European Union on May 01, 2004. There are 53 representatives from Poland in the European Parliament. Being the member of EU, Poland plays an important role in the geopolitics of Europe. Poland’s historical background offers a rich geopolitical and geostrategic resource. As one of Europe’s most significant historical powers, Poland prioritizes having a greater influence in continental politics. Poland boasts a rich history of citizen engagement. It has the oldest constitution in Europe, and the renowned Solidarity movement lead the country’s transition to democracy in the early 90s. It has been an active member of NATO and the EU since the turn of the century – two decades on, Poland faces new challenges.

Poland is one of the most important parts of Europe. Today, due to its geographical location, Poland continues to act as a barometer of great power politics. The Russia-Ukraine War has reignited the debate over Poland’s role in Central and Eastern Europe. Analysing Poland’s post-Cold War policies reveals a trend of closer cooperation with actors like the United States and the United Kingdom to safeguard itself from its two powerful neighbours. Poland’s increasing alignment with US-UK-oriented geopolitical strategies is rooted in the aforementioned historical reservations and dilemmas. The support from the United States and the United Kingdom has facilitated the limited adoption of the game-making characteristics advocated by Eugeniusz Romer in Polish geopolitics.

Being a bordering country to Ukraine, Poland is playing a major role in Russia-Ukraine war. At the onset of the Russia-Ukraine War, Poland’s active involvement raised many geopolitical questions. The geography of Ukraine is crucial to Poland’s historically and geopolitically driven strategy of becoming an independent player. Specifically, western Ukraine holds significant importance for Polish geopolitics both historically and existentially. The war also became a tool for Poland’s aspirations for regional leadership. This leadership was facilitated by a new geopolitical alignment, supported by the US and the UK, in which Poland actively participated in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region. Consequently, Warsaw views the consolidation of the American presence in the region, replacing that of Russia and Germany, as advantageous for its interests in the short and medium term. In the long term, Poland seeks to enhance its regional position with an independent strategic framework. However, for Poland to fully realize Romer’s envisioned geopolitical capabilities, it must become an independent and essentially self-sufficient geopolitical player.

Warsaw’s attempt to solidify its playmaker credentials with US support may yield short-term benefits. However, in the medium and long term, this approach could exacerbate regional fault lines. Meanwhile, economic interactions with Russia and Germany remain vital for Poland’s economy, highlighting the country’s economic-geopolitical dilemma.

Geopolitical aspirations of Poland

Poland’s geopolitical objectives are being reshaped due to tensions with the EU over the rule of law and uncertainty in the geopolitical context with the rise of China and Russia. A future Tusk government also holds the promise of progress in pivotal areas such as migration, climate policy, and EU treaty reform, where Poland has the capacity to act as a pivotal link within the European Union. Additionally, a reinvigorated commitment to democratic principles will bolster U.S. foreign policy objectives, enhancing bilateral and multilateral relationships during a period marked by heightened global strategic rivalry. Turning to the economy, its energy sector is reliant on fossil fuels, and a transition to renewables risks jeopardising energy security. Anxiety over the rising energy prices and living costs are compounded by rising global inflation. Poland’s economy coming under pressure might threaten aspirations of joining the G20.

Changing migration patterns both in and out of the country are presenting Poland with the dual challenges of integrating newcomers and encouraging young people to set down roots. Poland has been issuing the highest number of first residence permits to non-EU immigrants in the European Union (EU) for the past six years. The number of foreign workers registered in the social insurance system has skyrocketed from under 200,000 in 2015 to over 1.1 million at the start of 2024. To deal with this immigration problem Poland developed a new migration strategy for 2025 to 2030. The initial version of the document is set to be finished by September 2024. It is expected to be put into use before Poland takes on the role of EU presidency in 2025. The finalized strategy will result in creating new laws about migration, such as a new act on foreigners. Poland has not had a formal migration strategy since it was abolished in 2016.

In the EU, Poland is the third biggest carbon emitter after Germany and Italy in terms of total annual emissions. Even today up to 85% of Poland’s energy is sourced from fossil fuels, making its energy sector one of the most carbon-intensive in Europe. Poland’s power sector alone makes 70% electricity from coal. Poland’s Energy Policy until 2040 (PEP 2040) and the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) are still pending, but the existing versions offer indicative insights: Poland’s 2021- 2030 NECP, updated in 2019, set a target of 21-23% of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption by 2030. In August 2023, Clean Air Task Force (CATF) conducted public polling on awareness and perception of clean firm energy technologies (including CCS, superhot rock energy, advanced nuclear energy, and low-carbon hydrogen) across six different European countries, including Poland. The polling covered questions on the interest in climate news, awareness of clean energy technologies, and perceptions of clean energy technologies. Overall, the results demonstrate widespread public support for a range of clean firm energy sources and technologies in Poland and beyond.

The military has been one of the most important topics of discussion in Poland since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, as the country prepares for the risk of the conflict at its border spilling into its territory. Poland claims to become the strongest army in the future in the entire Europe. Polish has various military force and strategies improvement goals for 2032. They will consist of five services: Land Forces, Navy, Air Force, Special Operations Forces, and Territorial Defence Forces. Military spending has increase sharply in the last few years, due to the military’s modernisation plan. This item of expenditure has reached around 4% of GDP in 2023 and 2024, a record among EU countries, and should stand at around 2-3% in the following years.

Poland has significant economic challenges. It is still dealing with increased inflation 6.1% by the end of 2023 and anaemic annual economic growth of 0.4% in 2023, down from 5.5% a year earlier in the post-pandemic recovery period. The budget deficit, which is currently at 2.5% of GDP, is set to rise to 4.5% to accommodate some of the election promises. Recovery funds from the EU are set to provide some fiscal breathing room. But these funds might also raise demand, which could push inflation even higher. The coalition’s economic policy is likely to be characterised by targeted, yet cautious, interventions. The big promises made during the election such as more spending, tax cuts and bigger tax credits will face a reality check against the backdrop of inflation and a bigger budget deficit.

Conclusion

Poland right now is facing major challenges due to inflation, financial problems, energy crisis and due to war in the neighbouring country. The new government last year has promised to do their best to solve most of these challenges. However, upcoming years will show the reality check of the promises. Poland’s heavy industry produce a high employment rate, approximately 20% of the total workforce and gross value added (20%), while also being responsible for 42.56 million tons of CO2 emissions – 14% of the country’s total emissions. Therefore, transforming Poland’s industrial base in an economically viable and climate-beneficial way will be one of the most important tasks for the new government.

The Russia-Ukraine War has reignited the debate over Poland’s role in Central and Eastern Europe. The war has also become a tool for Poland’s aspirations for regional leadership. The assistance from the US and the UK has provided limited opportunities for Poland to “simultaneously protect itself” from Russia and Germany. Poland also has to realize the need to be independent from relying on USA and UK. In short term, getting support from the US and the UK is a good strategy but in the long term, Poland seeks to enhance its regional position with an independent strategic framework.