By: Drishti Gupta, Research Analyst, GSDN
The triangular relationship between the United States, Pakistan, and India has historically shaped the geopolitics of South Asia. Washington’s policies toward Islamabad and New Delhi have often oscillated, influenced by Cold War alignments, counterterrorism priorities, nuclear proliferation concerns, and, more recently, the strategic competition with China. In the mid-2020s, signs of a renewed U.S. Pakistan engagement have surfaced. Washington has increased diplomatic outreach, revived selective military cooperation, and emphasized the importance of Pakistan in counterterrorism, nuclear stability, and regional geopolitics. For India, these developments are worrying. New Delhi views U.S. support for Islamabad as potentially emboldening Pakistan’s military establishment, reviving its strategic leverage, and complicating India’s role as Washington’s key partner in the Indo-Pacific.
This article examines the historical roots of U.S.–Pakistan relations, current drivers of re-engagement, and the strategic implications for India. It draws upon verified figures, historical records, and contemporary analyses to provide a comprehensive assessment.
Historical Context: US–Pakistan–India Balancing
The U.S. Pakistan relationship has been marked by cycles of intense engagement and sharp estrangement. The U.S.–Pakistan relationship has swung between close cooperation and estrangement. In the Cold War era, Pakistan joined SEATO (1954) and CENTO (1955), becoming a key U.S. ally and receiving over US$ 5 billion in aid during the 1980s Afghan jihad. Ties soured in the 1990s when U.S. aid was cut under the Pressler Amendment due to Pakistan’s nuclear program. After 9/11, relations revived as Pakistan was named a major non-NATO ally and received more than US$ 20 billion (2002–2011) for counterterrorism and Afghan operations. Meanwhile, U.S. ties with India strengthened, culminating in the 2008 civil nuclear deal.
This dual-track policy strengthening India as a democratic partner while maintaining Pakistan as a counterterror ally has been a consistent source of Indian unease.
Pakistan’s Renewed Strategic Utility for the U.S.
The CRS report identifies Pakistan as “vital to U.S. interests” owing to its role in terrorism, Afghan stability, nuclear security, and regional tensions. Washington’s renewed engagement is shaped by four key factors.
First, counterterrorism cooperation remains essential, as Pakistan hosts groups like the Haqqani Network, TTP, and Lashkar-e-Taiba, whose activities gained renewed relevance after the Taliban’s 2021 takeover in Afghanistan. Second, Pakistan’s nuclear program estimated at 170 warheads by SIPRI (2024) and expanding rapidly continues to raise U.S. concerns about proliferation and security. Third, China’s growing influence through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has heightened U.S. worries about Pakistan drifting further into Beijing’s orbit. Finally, Pakistan’s recurring financial crises, including its near default in 2023 that required a US$ 3 billion IMF bailout, provide Washington with economic leverage through its role in international lending institutions.
U.S. Assistance and Defense Cooperation with Pakistan
From 2001 to 2017, Pakistan received over US$ 33 billion in U.S. assistance, including:
- US$ 14.5 billion in Coalition Support Funds (CSF) to reimburse Pakistan for counterterror operations.
- US$ 4 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) to purchase U.S. weapons, including F-16 fighter jets, attack helicopters, and night-vision equipment.
- Billions in economic support funds (ESF) for infrastructure and governance.
Although aid declined sharply after 2018 under the Trump administration, reports since 2022 indicate renewed U.S. efforts to provide military spare parts, training programs, and limited defense equipment to Pakistan. For India, such support raises alarms given Pakistan’s history of diverting counterterror funds toward conventional military capacity against India, especially in the context of Kashmir.
Indian Concerns Over U.S.–Pakistan Rapprochement
India’s anxieties about U.S.–Pakistan engagement stem from both historical experience and strategic logic. A key concern lies in arms transfers:
U.S.-supplied F-16s, officially designated for counterterrorism, were deployed by Pakistan during the 2019 Balakot crisis, reinforcing Indian suspicions about misuse. Diplomatically, Islamabad has often leveraged its ties with Washington to internationalize the Kashmir issue, despite India’s firm stance that it remains a bilateral matter. Counterterrorism is another fault line. New Delhi argues that U.S. dependence on Pakistan in this domain overlooks Islamabad’s selective approach acting firmly against anti-state groups while allowing anti-India militants to operate. Finally, the China–Pakistan–U.S. triangle heightens Indian concern, as even limited American engagement could inadvertently bolster Pakistan’s bargaining position with both Washington and Beijing, complicating India’s strategic environment.
China Factor: Strategic Triangles in South Asia
China’s presence looms large in the U.S.–Pakistan relationship. With CPEC investments exceeding US$ 60 billion, Beijing has entrenched itself as Pakistan’s economic lifeline and security partner. The U.S. seeks to avoid Pakistan becoming a full Chinese satellite state, but India views this triangulation skeptically. For New Delhi, U.S. engagement with Pakistan under the pretext of “countering China” could legitimize Pakistan’s role without reducing the risks to India.
U.S.–India Partnership: A Strategic Counterweight
Despite concerns, India remains Washington’s long-term bet in Asia. The Quad grouping (U.S., India, Japan, Australia), defense agreements such as COMCASA, LEMOA, and BECA, and the 2023 iCET framework on emerging technologies underscore the U.S. commitment to India. India has become the largest arms export market for the U.S., with defense trade growing from US$ 200 million in 2000 to over US$ 20 billion in 2023. Yet, New Delhi fears that tactical U.S. reliance on Islamabad in Afghanistan or counterterrorism may dilute the credibility of Washington’s India-first strategy.
Policy Recommendations for India
To mitigate risks from U.S.–Pakistan rapprochement, India should:
- Engage Washington Proactively: Ensure U.S. policymakers are briefed on India’s concerns over arms transfers and military aid.
- Leverage Strategic Autonomy: Balance ties with the U.S. while maintaining defense cooperation with France, Russia, and Israel.
- Regional Diplomacy: Deepen ties with Gulf states, ASEAN, and Africa to offset Pakistan’s narrative.
- International Platforms: Use FATF and UN Security Council mechanisms to highlight Pakistan’s terror networks.
- Economic Leverage: Showcase India’s market and investment potential as a counterweight to Pakistan’s instability, reminding Washington where its long-term interests lie.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s deepening engagement with the United States is driven by Washington’s counter-terrorism priorities, nuclear security concerns, and China-containment strategy. While this engagement may appear tactical, it poses significant strategic anxieties for India. History demonstrates that U.S. support—military, financial, or diplomatic—has often emboldened Pakistan’s military and destabilized South Asia. For India, the task ahead is clear: reinforce its role as Washington’s most reliable partner in Asia, while ensuring that any U.S.–Pakistan rapprochement does not translate into security costs for New Delhi.
As South Asia remains entangled in great-power rivalries, India must play a nuanced balancing act, combining diplomacy, economic strength, and military modernization to ensure that its strategic interests are not compromised.
About the Author
Drishti Gupta is a postgraduate in International Relations with a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Delhi University. She brings a strong foundation in global affairs, diplomatic studies, and strategic policy analysis. Drishti has held multiple research positions with reputed organisations such as Global Strategic & Defence News, The Geostrata, and Defence Research and Studies India, where she has contributed to key research projects on cybersecurity, foreign policy, and India’s evolving defence posture. Her academic and professional journey is marked by a deep interest in international diplomacy, global governance, and national security. She has completed certified programs on Global Diplomacy (University of London), Power and Foreign Policy, and Political Economy of Institutions, alongside the McKinsey Forward Program for professional development.
