By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN
India entered the nuclear arms race by the peaceful nuclear test in 1974, after the establishment of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968. India didn’t sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty because India claimed it was discriminatory towards them. India did its second nuclear weapon testing after India adopted No First Use (NFU) policy, which declared that India would use weapon of mass destruction only if the state was attacked by nuclear weapon first by other nuclear armed country. India also has the Credible Minimum Deterrence’ as a part of India’s nuclear policies. Both India and Pakistan has signed ‘Confidence Building Measurement’ which are measurements to prevents any future nuclear conflict.
Pakistan, on the other hand, tested nuclear weapon much later in May 1998, just days after India tested for the second time, and became a nuclear armed state. Pakistan has also not signed Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and they don’t have No First Use Policy, infect they have First Use Policy in order to deter from India or any other nuclear threats. Although, Pakistan has adopted a position of “no first use” against non-nuclear weapon states. Pakistan keepa nuclear warheads separately from the missiles and only assembles them if they are considered to be used. Pakistan’s position on nuclear disarmament is that it will only give up nuclear weapons if India gives up its own nuclear arsenal. Pakistan declared strategic nuclear policy claims to avoid conflict through “full spectrum deterrence,” while maintaining minimum credible deterrence. In order to mitigating the likelihood of misunderstanding, accidental or intentional nuclear escalation, both states agreed to resume the dialogue and launched a composite dialogue process in 2004 that led to the negotiation of Nuclear Confidence Building Measurements (NCBMs).
Overall, both states have agreed to four NCBMs over the years. First agreement in this regime was ‘Non-Attack Agreement’ in 1988, in this agreement both countries agreed to exchange information of latitude and longitude of nuclear installations annually on the 1st of January and refrain from any actions causing harm to nuclear facilities of either state. The second agreement was ‘Hotline: Foreign Secretaries’ in 2004. This established direct communications over the hotline to allow urgent contact and to prevent misunderstanding of any attack. The third agreement was ‘Advance Notification of Ballistic Missile Tests’ in 2005. This agreement was done to avoid misinterpretation for any peaceful explosion done by either countries. And the fourth agreement was ‘Reducing the Risk from Nuclear Weapons Accidents’ in 2007 which was signed to mitigate any risk from nuclear accidents and that both the states must immediately notify the other state in the event of any nuclear weapons accident that could result in radioactive fallout or the risk of a nuclear war between the two countries.
India and Pakistan – Nuclear Arsenal
India tested its first nuclear weapon in 1974, becoming the sixth country to detonate a nuclear weapon. The country’s arsenal carries weapons with estimated average yields ranging from 10 to 40 kilotons, though exact yields are unknown. India has 172 nuclear warheads making it 6th largest nuclear state. Other than that India also has approximately 700 kilograms enriched uranium that can be used to make up to 213 warheads.
India’s has nuclear capabilities is in all three domains i.e., land based, Aircrafts, and naval missiles. India has nearly 64 warheads in four deferent types land based ballistic missiles capable of nuclear payload, two of them are short range, one is medium range and one is intermediate range ballistic missile. India has the ability to deliver approximately 48 nuclear warheads via the Mirage 2000H/I, Jaguar IS/IB and Rafale aircraft. India has one ship-launched and one submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), capable to be equipped on submarine but the nuclear capable submarine development in India has not completed yet.
Pakistan tries to compete with India by having nearly 170 warheads making Pakistan the 7th largest nuclear state after India. Pakistan also has enough material to make up to 200 warheads. Pakistan has also tried to miniaturised nuclear missiles to make Multiple Independently Targeted Re-Entry Vehicles (MIRVs). Pakistan’s nuclear is estimated to be mainly on land-based missiles.
Pakistan is considered to have warheads in six deferent types of land based ballistic missile capable of nuclear payload. All of them are short to medium range ballistic missiles. Pakistan also has naval nuclear capabilities. Babar-3, a Sea Launch Ballistic Missile (SLBM), has been tested twice under the water. However, the completion of the development of Babar-3 has not been confirmed yet. Pakistan approved the purchase of eight submarines from China, considered to be capable of carrying Babar-3 missiles. The F-16, Mirage-3 and Mirage-5 aircrafts are considered to be capable of carrying nuclear missile. Pakistan is estimated to have nearly 12 Mirage aircrafts.
India was the second-largest arms importer from 2020-2024, after Ukraine. Majority of India’s imports come from Russia, although it has been shifting its arms sourcing to France, Israel and the United States. All of these countries are nuclear states, which makes them a potential ally in a nuclear conflict. On top of that, India’s total military strength is 5,137,550 personnel, which is more than twice the size of Pakistan. India possesses 2,229 military aircraft and has 3,151 combat tanks. India’s mainland coast covers nearly 6,100 km (3,800 miles) with 293 naval assets.
On the other hand, Pakistan is the fifth-largest arms importer with 4.6 percent imports in 2020–24. Since 1990, Pakistan’s main supplier has been China. China supplied 81 percent of Pakistan’s arms imports in 2020–24; Russia supplied 36 percent of India’s arms during the same period. China and Russia are also nuclear states, which makes them a potential ally to Pakistan. Comparatively Pakistan’s military strength is weaker than India, including 1,704,000 personnel. Pakistan possesses 1,399 military aircraft and has 1,839 combat tanks. Pakistan’s navy covers its 1,046 kilometre-long (650-mile) southern coastal borders in the Arabian Sea and possesses 121 naval assets.
Risk of Nuclear Conflict
India and Pakistan had been at war multiple times since India got independence from the British empire in 1947 and Pakistan was created as a new nation. Thousands of people were killed in the separation in communal violence, resulting hostile environment between both sides for decades. The possibility of the use of nuclear weapon has been closest multiple time between India and Pakistan, i.e. 1999 Kargil war, 2019 Pulwama attack and the recent 2025 Pahalgam attack. India and Pakistan conflict was considered as the possible nuclear threats for the first time in the Kargil war in 1999, which happened nearly a year after both India and Pakistan had declared themselves as nuclear armed states.
On February 2019, when a terrorist group ‘Jaish-e-Mohammed’ attacked by suicide bomb car in the Pulwama region of the Kashmir Valley in India, killing 40 Indian military personnel. India retaliated with air strikes near the Line of Control twelve days after the terrorist attack happened. Pakistan also shot down an Indian aircraft and captured the pilot. This escalated the tensions between the nations. But two days later, Pakistan released the pilot back to India. However, in February 2021, both the nuclear state declared ceasefire on the borders. This decreased the tensions between them.
On April 22, 2025, 26 hapless tourists were killed in a terrorist attack in Pahalgam by Pakistan armed and trained terrorists. Pakistan was quick to draw the nuclear threats when India vowed to “identify, track and punish” those behind the terrorist strike. Pakistan conducted a test of its 450 km-range, nuclear-capable, surface-to-surface Abdali missile on May 3. On May 05, the Pakistan army also tested a Fatah surface-to-surface missile with a range of 120 km. India ignored these signals as it vowed a “measured, non-escalatory, proportionate, and responsible” action against the terrorists. On May 07, India carried out military strikes on nine carefully chosen terrorist infrastructure. On this Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said that the threat of nuclear war was “clear and present”.
On May 12, 2025, in an address to the nation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “[There] is no tolerance for nuclear blackmail; India will not be intimidated by nuclear threats. The Indian Ministry of Defence issued a press statement that they responded “considerable restraint in the selection of targets and method of execution” and that “no Pakistani military facilities have been targeted”. Islamabad took this as a violation of its territorial sovereignty and hit Indian military and civilian sites. India responded proportionately against Pakistan’s airfields and air defence systems. On the third day of the engagement, Pakistan called for a ceasefire.
Conclusion
In the terms of quantities, the nuclear warheads are almost the same in both nations. However, the India’s nuclear capability can be considered much higher if we consider the military capabilities including the number of personnel and the number of tanks, aircrafts and submarines capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Some scholars believe that India-Pakistan borders a nuclear flashpoint. A terrorist attack should not be tolerated and must have repercussions. In the long term, both India and Pakistan need to get into a serious conversation in order to foster peace and avoid any future nuclear conflict.
