By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN
In 1977, David Hirst authored the book “The Gun and the Olive Branch: The Roots of Violence in the Middle East” which is the best book written on the Israel-Palestine issue as it comprises facts and figures evident by the colossal research and reading that went into the writing of the book.
In the book released 48 years ago, David Hirst writes that though Israel is economically and militarily powerful but, in the times, ahead the Arab nations will become stronger economically and militarily and will pose a serious challenge to Israel in the Middle East. The author signs off from book recommending two-state solution as the only path for peace in the Middle East.
48 years down the line on September 17, 2025, when Saudi Arabia & Pakistan announced the signing of Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) that includes the key clause of “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”, the foundation of Islamic NATO had been laid, and the words written by David Hirst nearly five-decades earlier proved correct.
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, also known as the Washington Treaty, the founding document for the military alliance North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), signed on April 04, 1949 and has 32 members as on date, states that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
The term Islamic NATO is an informal name given to the grouping that will see more Muslim nations joining the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan type SMDA which will have the key clause similar to that of Article 5, which strongly binds the NATO nations militarily. Time will only reveal the formal name that Islamic NATO will acquire in the near future.
Islamic NATO will have serious implications for both Israel & India. Both nations need to take this development seriously and not negate it as yet another balloon that will burst shortly. Israel and India are the two nations that will face the initial consequences of the fructification of the Islamic NATO due to the Jammu & Kashmir and the Palestine issue respectively.
Islamic NATO and implications for Israel
After modern nation-states came into being following the treaty called Peace of Westphalia in 1648,nations have staked claim over portions of other nations land based on historical and mythological claims. But rarely has any nation ceded any portion of their land peacefully, based on any historical or mythological claims.
There are numerous examples of wars and conflicts being waged after 1648 for reclaiming land by nations. Some were successful, some weren’t.
After the World War I started on July 28, 1914 between the Central Powers comprising Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire pitted against the Allied Powers consisting France, British Empire, Russia, Italy and the United States, the Middle East was proving tough for the Allied Powers as the Ottoman Empire was well-entrenched militarily.
Realising that it was impossible to defeat the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East, Sir Henry McMahon, the British High Commissioner in Egypt corresponded with Hussein bin Ali, the Sharif of Mecca, promising to support an independent Arab state in the Middle East in exchange for the Sharif of Mecca launching the Arab revolt against the Ottoman Empire.
Over the ten letters exchanged between Sir Henry McMahon and Hussein bin Ali during the period July 1915 to March 1916, known as the McMahon-Hussein Correspondence, the Arab uprising against the Ottoman Empire commenced.
As the Ottoman Empire started weakening and the Allied Powers were now certain of their victory, the Britishers silently renegaded from the promise made to the Arabs under the McMahon-Hussein Correspondence and in a secret pact with France called as the Sykes-Picot Agreement on May 09, 1916 divided the Ottoman provinces between Britain and France, which was to take affect after the end of the World War I. The Arabs were unaware of the Sykes-Picot Agreement and they continued supporting the British Empire against the Ottomans.
Under the Sykes-Picot Agreement, the Britishers got the present-day Israel, Palestine, Jordan and southern Iraq while France got control over southeastern Turkey, Kurdistan region, Syria and Lebanon.
Almost a year before the World War I ended on November 11, 1918, on November 02, 1917, Arthur Balfour, the British Foreign Secretary in a letter to Lord Rothschild promised support for the establishment of a national home for the Jews in Palestine. This letter which came to be known as the Balfour Declaration was at total variance to the McMahon-Hussein Correspondence.
Thus, after the end of the World War I started communal clashes between the Jews and the Arab Muslims in area that comprises the modern-day Israel, Gaza Strip and the West Bank as the Arabs realised that they had been betrayed by the Britishers and the Jews saw it as an opportunity for their homeland.
USA which emerged as the superpower after World War I constituted the King-Crane Commission in 1919 regarding the future course of action in the Middle East. In its report made public in 1922, the Commission stated that creation of Israel will ensure turbulence in the region.
The period 1918-1947 saw increased violence between the Jews and Arab Muslims which eventually led to the United Nations declaring in its Resolution 181 (II) on November 29, 1947 the two-state solution demarcating Israel and Palestine as sovereign nations. However, disputes arose over its unfair division which was unproportionate to the population of both the communities and Israel declared its unilateral independence on May 14, 1948, the very day on which the British Mandate in the region was to end.
True to the King-Crane Commission’s report of 1922, the Middle East never seen peace till date.
From 1948 till date Israel has fought multi-front and single-front wars with its neighbours. Some were initiated by the Arab nations and some by Israel. But in each war/conflict till October 2023, Israel emerged victorious.
Two major defence reforms by Israel in 2015 and 2020 saw the combat prowess of the Israel Defence Forces denuding. Be it the nearly two-year ongoing war between Hamas and Israel that commenced on October 07, 2023 or Iran’s pyrrhic victory over Israel in the 12-day war in June 2025, Israel is unable to declare complete victory in any front be it with Hamas, Houthi or Hezbollah.
Just as Israel’s defence woes were not finishing came the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s address in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 25, 2025 stating in no unequivocal terms of the possibility of formation of a Muslim-nations alliance with the charter of defence and security included. This clearly showed the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan defence pact signed eight days before had started getting the desired impact in the Islamic world.
Just a day earlier on September 24, 2025, the US President Donald Trump met eight Muslim nation leaders on the sidelines of the UNGA meetings, assuring the Muslim leaders that he won’t allow the Israeli annexation of the West Bank and presenting a white paper on ending Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip. President Trump went on to state that this meeting with the eight Muslim nation leaders was the most important of the 23 meeting that he had on the sidelines of the UNGA.
President Donald Trump knows that the path for his dream to Make America Great Again (MAGA) lies through the rich Arab nations of the Middle East. In his four-day trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE from May 13-16, 2025, the US President was able to get investments of over US$ 4 trillion from the three rich Arab nations apart from being personally gifted a US$ 400 million aircraft from Qatar!
Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim nation is the new poster boy of President Trump and is emerging as the leader of the Islamic world. No wonder, the closeness between the USA and Pakistan in the last four months has reached beyond normal comprehension levels. Since May 2025, when India defeated Pakistan militarily in the 88-hour conflict known as Operation Sindoor in India, the Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has visited White House thrice and apart from having lunch with the US President on June 18, 2025, all the three visits have got unprecedented attention in the American media.
This has emboldened Pakistan to champion itself as an important leader of the Islamic world. Pakistan is the only nation in the world that has good relations with all the three superpowers viz the USA, Russia and China.
The Islamic NATO has started firming up. The first aim for the Islamic NATO as and when it finally fructifies will be the creation of Palestine as an independent nation. With more and more countries in the world recognising Palestine that includes the Western nations of Australia, France and Canada, the country that is getting isolated is Israel.
And with the United Nations declaring the Israeli action in the Gaza Strip as genocide on September 16, 2025, Israel is on a clear backfoot. On September 26, 2025, Palestine formally applied for BRICS membership, a move that was welcomed by China. Russia and China stand rock-solid behind Palestine and the Muslim nations.
The combined military power of the Islamic nations along with Russia and China far exceeds the combined military power of Israel and the USA. With no certain help assured from the Western or the NATO nations, Israel will have a tough time militarily, in case the USA decides to step-back from its support to Israel as the G3 is rising.
Given to choose between the cash-rich Arab nations and Israel, President Donald Trump will choose the former as with deep pockets they present a clear roadmap for MAGA. The Islamic nations know it well and it is matter of time before the Islamic NATO fructifies.
Implications for India after creation of Islamic NATO
In case the Islamic NATO is successful in creation of Palestine as an independent nation, its next target will be the Indian Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir.
In 1947, as the independence of India and the creation of Pakistan was imminent, there existed 565 princely states also called as native states, that were given the option of joining either India or Pakistan.
Sardar Vallabbhai Patel, who would go on to become India’s first Home Minister, by his efforts persuaded 562 princely states to join India. Jammu & Kashmir under Maharaja Hari Singh, was amongst those three princely states that refused to either join India or Pakistan, the other two being Mysore and Hyderabad.
On August 20, 1947 just six days after Pakistan became a new nation on August 14, 1947 the Pakistan Army prepared a plan code-named Operation Gulmarg to wrest Jammu & Kashmir. According to this plan 20 Lashkars (tribal militias), each consisting of 1000 Pashtun tribesmen, were to be recruited, armed and trained for seizing Jammu & Kashmir. Operation Gulmarg was to be launched on October 22, 1947 with 10 Lashkars detailed to capture Srinagar, the winter capital of Jammu & Kashmir and 10 Lashkars detailed to capture Jammu, the summer capital of Jammu & Kashmir.
As per the original planning, 10 Lashkars headed to seize Srinagar. They moved with ease and encountered no/little resistance as the Jammu & Kashmir State Forces were small in number, and the Lashkars reached Baramulla, a small town just 26 kilometres from Srinagar. Over-confident and over-joyed that now Srinagar was not too far away, the Lashkars started plundering the residents of Baramulla and raping the women too. Their move thus got stalled as they took to these macabre activities.
Aware of the gravity of the situation, Maharaja Hari Singh asked for assistance from India. Help was agreed to be given by India on the condition of the Maharaja signing the Instrument of Accession to India.
On October 26, 1947 Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession with India and the very next day on October 27, 1947 the Indian Army landed in Srinagar and moved immediately to Baramulla where the Lashkars were busy plundering the town and raping the women.
The Indian Army fought hard to the last man, last round and the Lashkars started retreating back and a clear and total military victory for the Indian Army was on the horizon. And then India did the unexpected, by approaching the United Nations on January 01, 1948 calling upon the international body to call out Pakistan to end the aggression.
The move backfired and the United Nations, on January 20, 1948 adopted a resolution to set up the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP) to establish peace in the region.
While the United Nations started working on ways and means to end the war, the war raged with greater fury between the Indian Army and the Lashkars, as the Pakistan Army regulars too had entered the war openly in mid-1948 and the fighting intensified between the two armies.
This war lasted till January 01, 1949 when a United Nations mandated ceasefire came into effect, and resulted in 1104 fatal casualties on the Indian side and 6000 fatal casualties on the Pakistani side.
The UNCIP ceasefire resolution called upon Pakistan to withdraw its forces from Jammu & Kashmir and India to withdraw the bulk of its forces after the Pakistanis had withdrawn, except a bare minimum force which India was to maintain for law and order. The resolution further went on to state that the future of Jammu & Kashmir shall be determined in accordance with the will of the people.
Though the war stopped between India and Pakistan but the UNCIP ceasefire resolution was neither acceptable to India nor to Pakistan. India felt cheated by the UNCIP resolution as it had approached the United Nations with the only aim of the international body telling Pakistan to withdraw from Jammu & Kashmir. And Pakistan would have nothing less than the whole Jammu & Kashmir.
Meanwhile as the ceasefire came into effect, India got the control of two-thirds of Jammu & Kashmir and Pakistan got the control of the remaining one-third. Clearly, by approaching the United Nations as a military victory seemed pretty much in sight, was a grave blunder that resulted in India losing one-third of Jammu & Kashmir to Pakistan.
Pakistan calls its one-third occupied portion of Jammu & Kashmir as Azad Kashmir while India terms the one-third portion illegally occupied by Pakistan, as Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (POJK).
Also, Cease Fire Line (CFL) was created post the Karachi Agreement which was signed on July 27, 1949 between India and Pakistan in Jammu & Kashmir which till date is monitored by United Nations observers. CFL got converted to the Line of Control in 1972.
Pakistan waged four more unsuccessful war/conflicts on India to wrest Jammu & Kashmir, apart from supporting terrorism in India since 1980.
Pakistan has since long rallied the Muslim nations to support it for Jammu & Kashmir, but barring a handful of nations like Turkey and Niger, almost all of the 57-nation Organisation of Islamic Cooperation have ignored Pakistan’s such requests.
But, the fructification of Islamic NATO and the creation of Palestine as an independent nation will give fillip to Pakistan efforts for Jammu & Kashmir.
Out of eight neighbours of India in South Asia, baring the tiny Bhutan, all nations are in tight Chinese grip. With the formation of the Islamic NATO, problems for India will increase manifold. Three statements from top Indian military officer’s merit attention.
One, on March 17, 2025, General Upendra Dwivedi, the Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army, while delivering the fourth General Bipin Rawat Memorial Lecture in New Delhi remarked that two-front war was no longer a possibility-it’s a reality.
Two, on July 04, 2025 Lieutenant General Rahul R Singh, the Deputy Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army in a seminar in New Delhi candidly spoke of Pakistan receiving live updates of the Indian Army’s vectors from China, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours were embroiled in the 88-hour military confrontation from May 07-10, 2025. The General Officer also mentioned of China using Pakistan as a live laboratory for testing its weapons.
Three, on July 09, 2025, General Anil Chauhan, the Chief of Defence Staff of the Indian Armed Forces, stated that the convergence of interests between China, Pakistan & Bangladesh will have serious implications for India’s stability and security dynamics.
To add to the above three statements, the formation of Islamic NATO will create more challenges for India.
Israel and India have to ensure that the Islamic NATO doesn’t fructify under any circumstances. For, the creation of Islamic NATO will compound problems of unimaginable proportions for both Israel and India.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd) is the Founder-Editor, Global Strategic & Defence News and has authored the book “China’s War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate”. He tweets at @JassiSodhi24.
