By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analsyt, GSDN
With the return of Trump in the White House again, the question of US-Iran Nuclear deal has come to the attention again and how is he going to deal with the issue in the second term. Iran anticipates the reintroduction of his “maximum pressure” policy, which could severely damage its economy and international relations. Iranian officials have signalled openness to a direct political approach, warning that a return to a maximum-pressure 2.0 approach will only result in ‘maximum defeat 2.0.’
Iran is feeling uneasy with the future of their Nuclear Program especially after becoming a part of Israel-Palestine war in order to stop the current genocide going in the Gaza and West-Bank and now spreading in Syria, Lebanon and other Arab countries as well. Now, all eyes are on Trump administration to make decision on Iran Nuclear deal. The objective is to get Iran to accept zero nuclear enrichment which looks less compelling for Iran.
US-Iran Nuclear Deal
The not-so-unexpected victory of former president Donald Trump on November 5 has renewed the discussion on how Trump’s approach towards Iran Nuclear deal will change from his first tenure and the Biden administration. In his first term, he imposed more than 1,500 sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign with the intent to destroy the economy of Iran and bring the country to its knees. Trump also withdrew from the JCPOA and issued a twelve-point set of conditions for talks with Iran, which included terminating the military dimension of its nuclear program, allowing rigorous and sudden inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, halting Iran’s ballistic missile program, ceasing support for regional proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and disarming Iraqi militias and integrating them into Iraq’s security forces. Trump also ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, which makes difficult for the Iranian regime to engage in negotiations with a leader they hold responsible for Soleimani’s death.
The Abraham Accords, establishing diplomatic ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan were undoubtedly the most prominent foreign policy achievement and legacy of the first Trump administration. Israel appears to favour a compartmentalized approach, Saudi Arabia, however, seems to prefer a comprehensive approach, with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan reiterating the need for a recognized Palestinian state as a precondition for any deal with Israel.
The Biden Administration was not as extreme as Trump, against the Middle-East Policies. In the Biden’s Presidency, US was trying to restore the 2015 nuclear deal but it broke in September 2022, due to accusation made by France, Germany and the UK for the violation of ‘Security Council Resolution-2231’ last year when Iran supplied drones to Russia during the Russia-Ukraine conflict even though Iran knows that Russia might use the Drones to target the Nuclear Facilities. Although Biden said the US is ready to make a deal if Iran is willing to comply. This 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal has been wavering since Trump abandoned it in 2018.
Iran has been under the close inspection for last few years due to recent nuclear development. Iran war also accused to nearing to becoming a nuclear state. Although, CIA director Bill Burns stated that US intelligence has found no evidence against Iran’s uranium weaponization. In the beginning of 2023, Burns stated that Iran can make at least one ‘Weapon of Mass Destruction’ in ‘the matter of weeks‘. The US defence authority Colin Kahl said Iran might make one nuclear bomb’s worth of fissile material in just 12 days instead of 12 months. But now in the end of 2024, it is considered that Iran has enough fissile material to produce three nuclear missiles within weeks.
Other than that there are few EU sanctions including missile, nuclear and other weapon, that has expired in October 18, 2023. On which Iran said it will be illegal for the EU to maintain sanctions on Iran. Re-establishing 2015 JCPOA deal and limiting Iranian stockpiling at this point will not stop the Uranium weaponization in Iran, because Iran has enough material to develop two Nuclear bomb. Thought one nuclear bomb is not enough to deter Iran from nuclear threat. Grossi said that there will be instability if the IAEA is unable to tell world that the nuclear program of Iran is completely peaceful.
Trump’s approach towards Iran Nuclear deal in his second term
It is estimated that, Trump might continue his “maximum pressure” campaign, possibly endorsing more aggressive actions, like supporting Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities like Israel has done previously. Such scenarios could create significant friction with some Middle-eastern countries and United States. Trump has signalled on several occasions that he does not seek regime change in Tehran and that he wants an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian Vice-President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif, has indicated that Tehran would enter into talks with Trump if it is treated with “respect.”
Before election 2024, Tehran said its tactics might change but who ends up winning the White House won’t alter its strategies. While President Joe Biden’s administration has worked to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East and act as a moderating influence on Netanyahu, Trump’s return to power could signal a much tougher approach. This could also create friction between the GCC ‘Gulf Cooperation Council’ states and Iran. This will force the GCC countries to make a delicate balance between their strategic partnership with Washington and their efforts to maintain stability with Tehran.
The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel is currently the most pressing regional issue, with a risk of evolving into an all-out, multi-party, multi-front war. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised a “tooth-crushing” response to Israel in retaliation for air strikes on Tehran and multiple other provinces on October 26. It is expected that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) might involve the Iranian army as well after four army soldiers were killed by Israeli bombs.
Besides war scenario, Iran has been dealing with economic crisis high inflation by U.S. sanctions. Following the withdrawal of 2015 JCPOA deal, Trump imposed vital oil sanctions as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign. This plummeted the oil export of Iran to 300,000 barrels per day or less by 2019. During the Biden’s administration the relation of Iran and US were getting better because of which Iranian oil export has improved to 1.5 Million barrels per day currently, up from 400,000 barrels per day in 2020. This changed Iranian economy significantly, roughly 70%, since oil export is Iran’s primary source of revenue generation.
Easier access to oil revenues also will be an attractive proposal for the Iranian government. This could give Iran an opportunity to sale Iranian oil to other nations more than China. If Iran could export oil out of U.S. sanctions, it could find potential buyers elsewhere at higher prices, contributing to Iran’s economy. This can help de-escalating the worsening relationship between US-Iran, giving Trump an opportunity to negotiate a deal with Iran.
Trump wants to make a deal with Iran, though many will try to block it, including Trump’s foreign policy advisers, some donors, and the Israeli government. All are pushing Trump to revert back to maximum pressure, arguing that this will “bankrupt” Iran and deprive its resources to pursue its nuclear and regional goals. Therefore, Trump might choose from two distinct track to follow. He can either putting ‘maximum pressure 2.0’ which is destined to escalate the current war in Middle-East or he can try lifting oil sanctions from Iran to increase their economic growth and to ease the relationship in order to negotiate a deal with Iran, on which both nations agree peacefully.
Impact on US-Arab Relationship
Post October 07, 2023, attack Israel and US both has been in continuous conflict with not only Palestine but also Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, other non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi movement. All of these state and non-state actors in the war are heavily influenced by Iran. Which makes Iran Nuclear deal even more problematic for Donald Trump. US Supporting Israel unconditionally can fuel the conflict and it will work against the Trump intent to de-escalate the global conflict.
Russia might be helping to advance Iran’s missile system. Russia supported U.S. and European efforts to compel Iran to limit its nuclear program a decade ago. However, Iran has developed close relations with Russia in last few years. Tehran’s agreement to supply Moscow with sophisticated armed drones during Russia-Ukraine war. Russia and Iran continued cooperation to secure the Assad regime in Syria. Russia and China have recruited Iran into several multilateral organizations, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, that can help Iran mitigate the effects of intensified U.S. sanctions. Though Iran will take some time to restarting a complete weaponization program which was stopped in 2003, but with Russia’s help and it advanced technology, it could be sooner than expected.
Saudi Arabia has shown signs of obtaining the nuclear weapon if Iran ever successfully detonates one. Although, it is too early to warry about Saudi Arabia right now. The Arab Gulf states have all improved ties with Iran since Trump left office after his first term. They all seek to de-escalate several regional conflicts in Middle-East, because they are concerned that Israel-Iran conflict might affect the economic growth of gulf countries.
Syria is a transit point for weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has dragged them into the Israel Palestine conflict. Syria always has the territorial dispute with Israel over Golan Heights. Though, Syria was a primary base of the ISIS, they have not been a part of this conflict yet. The small military present in Syria trying their best to keep a close watch on ISIS activities to prevent them out of the war.
The relation between Iraq and Iran has also grown recently. Both Iraqi army and Iran-led Resistance group continues to attack US forces in Iraq and Syria. This has worsened the relationship between US and Iraq, despite the Strategic Framework Agreement they signed in 2008. Approximately 2,500 US troops are stationed in Iraq, to keep a watchful eye on ISIS activities. Recently, US has done an agreement with Iraq to withdraw US army from Iraq by the end of 2026. The second term of Trump administration might find it hard to go along with this agreement or Trump might even go against this deal and decide to keep the troops in Iraq, according to Iraq’s behaviour towards this conflict.
Conclusion
It is still too early to determine which approach would the Trump administration chose in his second presidency. Tensions between Tehran and Washington have steadily worsened, primarily due to the unwavering and unconditional support of U.S. for Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu playing a key role in widening the gap with the current conflict. The assassination of Soleimani in first Trump’s presidency and attempt to kill Trump before the election of 2024, could influence Trump’s personal stance, adding another layer of complexity to the US-Iran Nuclear issue.
Trump could decide to do ‘maximum pressure’, considering Iran has been expanding ties with Russia, China, and Gulf states to increase their economy and military power. However, this could not only have a deteriorating effect in the relation of U.S. with Iran but other gulf countries as well. A diplomatic approach between Iran and the U.S. can give both parties a chance to negotiate and accept a compromised US-Iran Nuclear deal. This will help both countries to return to diplomatic successes similar to the Obama era.
