By: Aditi Sharma, Research Analyst, GSDN
The rivalry between Greece and Turkey that has its roots in centuries-old conflicts and is marked by frequent crises that have influenced not only the geopolitical environment of the southeast European continent but also that of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the larger regional security framework. Greece and Turkey have had a Cold War-style, protracted struggle for at least the past 40 years disrupted by shorter or longer détente pauses. Another way to characterise this situation is as a relationship of manageable tension.
Due to the bilateral relationship’s tumultuous past, competing nationalist narratives are frequently discussed in public. Both nations are regarded as each other’s “founding fathers,” according to their respective occupations before attaining independence that is Greece in 1829 and Turkey in 1923. On both sides, elite thought, public opinion, and national security doctrines are still influenced by these intersecting historical traumas.
The stakes are raised by the fact that both nations are strategically located to control important oil routes, maritime lanes and migrant corridors connecting three continents. The Greece-Turkey relationship is essential to peace and security in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean because of the unresolved maritime boundary disputes such as Cyprus’s partition, migratory pressures and a history of military brinkmanship.
Historical Background
From the fall of Constantinople in 1453 until the fascinating coexistence of the progenitors of modern Greeks and Turks inside the Ottoman Empire the history of current-day Greeks and Turks is a case of entangled history. The Greek-Turkish hostility has its origins in the Ottoman era when Greece was ruled by the Ottoman Empire till the Greek War of Independence in the 1800s.
There was even discussion to establish an Ottoman-Greek state during the last decade of the nineteenth century despite the existence of the Kingdom of Greece which was pursuing expansion. Just ten years after the terrible Greco-Turkish War of 1919-1922 a similar idea resurfaced in the 1930s that was of a Greek–Turkish confederation. Later, Treaty of Lausanne was signed on July 24, 1923 that put an end to hostilities and it attempted to settle territorial disputes while also redrawing country borders and requiring population transfers. However, there were several issues that remained unresolved particularly the ones that pertained to minority rights and Aegean Sea islands.
Greece and Turkey joined NATO in 1952 because of the Cold War with the goal of promoting collaboration against shared external threats. Both countries constantly pursued different strategic priorities rather than reducing their rivalry. The mistrust was also heightened by Cyprus – related divisions after the island gained independence in 1960 and after the Turkish military intervened on July 20, 1974. Further, there have been frequent crises in the Aegean and continuous disputes over air and maritime space and the bilateral relationship alternated between cautious détente and outright hostility on occasion.
Cyprus Conflict
At the geostrategic intersection of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa is Cyprus. It was therefore historically considered an important strategic area for numerous empires and civilisations. Cyprus fell to the Ottoman Empire in 1571. Large numbers of settlers from all across the Empire were brought in by the Ottomans to create a Turkish presence in the local populace.
In exchange for helping the Ottoman Empire defend its eastern provinces from Russian threats, Britain assumed administrative authority of the island in 1878. The emerging Turkish Republic officially ceded its claim of Cyprus to Britain in 1923 with the Treaty of Lausanne. The island was officially proclaimed a crown colony by Britain in 1925, two years later.
When the island obtained independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1829, certain Greek Cypriot elites started to demand that it be merged with the Kingdom of Greece before the end of the 19th century. Calls to merge the island with Greece grew among Greek Cypriot elites. Pro-enosis Greek nationalism played a major role in the bloody riots against the British government in 1931. The Greek Cypriots resumed their political involvement following World War II.
On July 15, 1974, a Greek-sponsored coup was carried out as a result of intercommunal violence and desires for enosis or unity with Greece. On July 20, 1974 Turkey responded by launching a military incursion that gave them control of the island’s northern part. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus which is solely recognised by Turkey was proclaimed on November 15, 1983 as a result of the ensuing de facto division. Although decades of reunification negotiations have not produced a meaningful settlement, United Nations (UN) peacekeeping personnel have been maintaining a buffer zone since 1974.
In the wake of the Turkish invasion, UN Secretary General Kurt Waldheim established a new mission of good works. Serious talks about many humanitarian challenges took place during the next 10 months. The main political issues like territory, refugees and the structure of the government however, remained unresolved.
Migration and Refugee Crisis
Migration has become a geopolitical and humanitarian issue. Hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers fled Turkey for Greek islands during the 2015 refugee crisis that placed a burden on resources and sparking disagreements over border control. When Turkish officials urged thousands of migrants to approach the Greek land border at Evros in March 2020 tensions reached a height and the Greek security forces responded with. The EU mediated aid packages and border assistance out of concern for its own stability but the underlying friction still exists.
Aegean Sea Dispute
Since the beginning of the twentieth century Greece and Turkey have been at odds over the Aegean islands. Both countries current borders were set by international treaties following the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Many Aegean islands however, had no clear status which resulted in continuous ownership and control disputes. Due to competing claims to the region’s borders, Athens and Ankara have been at conflict over maritime matters in the Aegean Sea since the 1970s.
Historical hostility, the demilitarisation of Eastern Aegean islands, disagreements over the boundaries of national seas and the Continental Shelf and regular airspace breaches are the main causes of this protracted Aegean Sea problem. Tensions between the two countries have increased because of the incidents and military posture brought on by these divisive topics. The discovery of substantial natural gas reserves in the area and the 44-refugee crisis affecting Europe are two of the many reasons that have contributed to the recent escalation of tensions between the two nations. Natural gas has increased the stakes with Turkey claiming that because of their closeness to the gas resources islands like Kastellorizo should be under its jurisdiction.
While Turkey opposes the application of UNCLOS in the Aegean and claims concerns over its own coastal security, Greece on the other hand rests its claims on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to which it is a signatory. Any Greek attempt to expand its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles is viewed as a casus belli by Turkey. The discovery of new energy deposits in the area has intensified rivalry for access and rights to profitable hydrocarbons that makes these disputes more pressing. Frequent diplomatic and military conflicts are fuelled by such disagreements.
Recent Developments
Greece’s strategy to become the EU’s safeguards against Turkey was altered when it realised that closer ties between the EU and Turkey increased the likelihood that it could settle its bilateral issues with Turkey and the Cyprus issue in accordance with international law and UN Security Council resolutions. However, during the height of EU-Turkey relations historic potential were lost.
Prospects for resolving the Cyprus issue were scuttled in April 2004 when Greek Cypriots rejected the Annan Plan. Furthermore, in December 2004 the Greek government did not exert pressure on Turkey to refer the unresolved maritime zone delimitation problems to the Hague’s International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Due to several structural and conceptual issues Greek-Turkish relations have become more tense after two decades of relative peace and lost chances to resolve their differences. The strategic decisions made by both nations were certain to have an impact on the future of their relations because Turkey’s EU membership was no longer a means of resolving bilateral issues between Greece and Turkey. The importance of interaction mechanisms which Greece had deemed crucial to advancing its concept of bilateral cooperation was diminished in Turkey as a result of Turkey’s move away from West institutions and pursuit of strategic autonomy. The nature of bilateral relations was unavoidably altered by this.
When Turkey sent the research vessel Oruc Reis along with warships and a Greek naval mobilisation to perform seismic investigations in disputed seas off the coast of Kastellorizo island on May 20, 2020 tensions significantly increased. Therefore, naval brinkmanship and diplomatic standoffs took place in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Concerned by these events and in solidarity with its member Greece, the EU urged for moderation and threatened sanctions on Turkey. To maintain balance the US called for talks while highlighting NATO unity. In October 2020, more EU sanctions were put in place because to Turkey’s ongoing drilling operations.
Despite multiple standoffs diplomatic channels have remained open. In January 2021 Greece and Turkey resumed exploratory talks after a five-year hiatus while United Nations-facilitated meetings in Geneva sought to revive Cyprus negotiations. NATO facilitated military de-confliction mechanisms by establishing a hotline. Despite these dialogues there were no fundamental breakthroughs were achieved by 2025 which left tensions unresolved but controlled.
Amongst various external powers, one important stakeholder has been the EU which has pushed Turkey with economic penalties and offered Greece diplomatic support. While energy interests and migrant cooperation complicate the EU’s balancing act France increased its naval presence to demonstrate support for Greece. The United States maintains strategic interests that underscore the importance of bilateral stability for NATO’s southern flank and serve as a check on the situation in times of crisis by maintaining military installations in both Greece and Turkey. through communication with Nicosia, Athens, and Ankara. By applying its energy expertise Russia seeks to expand its influence and presence in the Mediterranean, further complicating an already complex web of rivalries and alliances.
Economic Interdependence and Strategic Realities
Throughout the 20th century, most peripheral economies have been influenced by the pursuit of economic growth. The years following 1949 established a somewhat stable climate in Greece that facilitated quick development. Growth rates during what became known as the Golden Age were roughly 6.5 percent in the 1950s and 7.4 percent from 1961 to 1979. A lot of this was dependent on fiscal and monetary restraint. However, when that equilibrium was thrown off in the 1970s especially during the oil crisis, inflation increased and foreign inflows decreased, which ultimately had a significant negative impact on employment and economy. As part of the EU’s Single Market and Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) frameworks the country began to move towards privatisation and market reforms in the 1990s as a result of mounting domestic demands as well as pressure from the EU.
The economic trajectory of Turkey was rather more lopsided. Populist cycles continued and the nation had financial crises in 1994 and 2001. More domestic borrowing was made possible by financial liberalisation but it also increased interest rates and produced fiscal deficits that exposed more serious structural problems.
The 1999 reconciliation did however, inject some fresh vitality. In the early 2000s, trade and investment increased particularly in sectors like building and tourism. Both sides’ business communities appeared optimistic.
All of it, however was unable to keep politics out. Cyprus and Aegean tensions continued to resurface. Additionally, the political resolve to forge closer commercial links declined along with Turkey’s EU process. Large-scale initiatives like the EastMed pipeline might be beneficial but only if political trust is established beforehand.
Pathways to Resolution
The key to long-term de-escalation is diplomatic interaction which can be aided by impartial third parties. Although the UN and NATO offer platforms for communication, political will is necessary for them to be effective. Long-term fixes can be provided by impartial dispute resolution and confidence-building measures. Cooperation needs to be encouraged by economic collaboration, particularly in the areas of energy and regional infrastructure. The best chances for regional stability are supported by international law-based arbitration.
The ongoing disputes between Greece and Turkey over national identity, resources and sovereignty continue to pose a severe danger to peace and security in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Euro-Atlantic region. Frequent crises indicate the potential for escalation, while initiatives to promote trust and regional diplomatic engagement suggest a path ahead. A successful resolution requires the political might of both Athens and Ankara, as well as the continuous support of international institutions and third-party mediators.
About the Author
Aditi Sharma has recently completed her Master’s in Geopolitics and International Relations, from Manipal Academy of Higher Education, building a strong academic foundation in global affairs. She has previously interned at the Vivekananda International Foundation and is passionate about International Relations, Geopolitics, and Media and Journalism. Her core interests lie in Indian National Security, Defence, Counterterrorism, and West Asian Studies. She is committed to continuous learning and aims to contribute meaningfully to public and academic discourse.
