By: Nabhjyot Arora, Research Analyst, GSDN

India conducted the third parliamentary elections between April 19- June 01, 2024 where the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) claimed victory for the third consecutive term. The largest democratic exercise remains crucial for the country positioning itself as ‘’Vishwaguru’’ in the geopolitical arena, with more than 900 million registered voters exercising their democratic rights. New Delhi hosted the G-20 Presidency in 2023, aptly demonstrating ‘India’s moment has arrived’ as the country extended its outreach in the global south, to counter Beijing as diplomatic tensions simmered ahead of the inclusion of Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates fearing the bloc would turn pro-China, whilst Russia already described the ties with Beijing, as the ‘’best in history’’ during the security summit in Kazakhstan.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow in July 2024, to co-chair the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin amidst the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia war in February 2022 indicates commitment towards warmer ties, and redefines the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership the countries share, highlighting the focus areas of oil diplomacy, energy security, defense partnership including nuclear technology development, anti-terrorism, fertilizer, food transfer, and infrastructure development. The crude oil import increased to 1.97 million barrels per day (mbpd) during June 2024, the highest since July 2023.

There could be an improvement in Indo-Russia ties, with India opening two consulates in Russia’s Kazan and Yekaterinburg, to ease mobility and trade. Further, Moscow invited PM Modi to the BRICS Summit which is scheduled to be held in Kazan, Russia in October 2024. New Delhi however, has been looking to diversify its defense procurement away from Russia, to Western arms manufacturers including the US, the UK, Israel, France, Japan, Germany, and Brazil. Diversification is also driven by defense cooperation with Brazil, on sharing military information, military technology, capacity building and training, development of defense systems and equipment, and strengthening the supply chain.

Expanding footprint of India

India will continue expanding its footprint in LATAM and the Caribbean based on defense collaboration, energy security, and food security in addition to investments in the sectors of tourism, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure. The country signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), while trade agreements are yet to be concluded with New Zealand, South Africa, Oman, Peru, the US, the UK, European Union and ASEAN. Development of the indigenous defense industry would enable US$ 5 billion in exports in defense hardware by 2025, with New Delhi investing in infrastructure development along the contested borders, especially with the expansionist presence of Beijing.

Prime Minister Modi did not attend the 24th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held in Kazakhstan in July 2024, which was represented by the Minister of External Affairs Dr S. Jaishankar who discussed the issues of terrorism, connectivity, climate change, and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. The summit was attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif, indicating the prominent role New Delhi needs to play to balance counteracting global forces at play. The northwest borders remain affected by terror operations, which impede infrastructure development and connectivity with Central Asia via Pakistan. New Delhi remains critical of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC – sub-project of Belt and Road Initiative) violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of India, specifically Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK).

The SCO and BRICS + Forum could enable building ties with Central Asia, Africa, LATAM, and the Middle East, while India seeks to gain permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). An increase in terror activities in the SAHEL region might lead Ethiopia and Egypt to seek out UNSC membership, making the countries aligned with Beijing. The inclusion of Iran, with the possibility of imposition of potential US-backed sanctions might jeopardize New Delhi’s containment of the actions of Russia and China.

Connectivity, Infrastructure, and Elections in the US

The coalition government would continue the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) instilling connectivity and economic integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf, and Europe. India looks forward to building on connectivity and infrastructural projects including Chabahar Port under the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, however, the deal could result in potential sanctions on India, the decisive factors based on upcoming US elections. The transit route opens via Afghanistan and Central Asia, avoiding the land route through Pakistan. India’s developing close relations with Russia might also affect diplomatic and trade relations with the European Union and the United States. President Obama stated that ‘’India-US strategic partnership will be the defining relationship of this century’’, which will further shape the geopolitical fervour, ahead of the Presidential Elections in the United States in November 2024, especially in case of the potential victory of former President Donald Trump.

US-China Rivalry & borders of India

The recent visit of the former Speaker of the House of Representatives – Ms. Nancy Pelosi at the doors of New Delhi, to meet the spiritual leader His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama aims to engage Beijing in resolving the Tibet Dispute, which has been taken up with the passage of the “Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act” advancing the human rights of Tibetans, and preserving their distinct linguistic, cultural, and religious heritage as evident from the statement made by the President of the United States Joe Biden – ‘’My administration will continue to call on the People’s Republic of China to resume direct dialogue, without preconditions, with the Dalai Lama, or his representatives, to seek a settlement that resolves differences and leads to a negotiated agreement on Tibet.” On the land frontier, the border standoff remains an issue of contention due to incursions made by Beijing, especially along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Depsang and Demchok sectors across eastern Ladakh and the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh.

Hedging – balancing foreign policy

Diplomatic heft calls to balance the national foreign policy between the West and the largest trading partner – Beijing, well defined by the External Affairs Minister Dr. Jaishankar as ‘’hedging.’’ The ‘’nation first’’ approach, thereby, requires New Delhi to balance military and economic security, given the trade imbalance of US$ 100 billion remains in favour of Beijing.

India will continue collaborating with the United States on clean energy and defense, conducting naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific, thereby securing the high seas based on collaborations of QUAD and the I2U2. Foreign policy objectives as well will continue to seek permanent membership at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), depicting commitment towards counter-terrorism and democratic principles against the perceptions of democratic backsliding in India, which includes a decline in press freedom, civil liberties, religious divide, and a decline in human rights. Aggressive foreign policy approach raises concerns regarding conflict with the West, after the extradition of an Indian national – Nikhil Gupta to the United States, regarding involvement in the alleged assassination attempt of the Khalistani separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, which took place in New York City in June 2023.

India & Strategic Autonomy

New Delhi underwent a diplomatic fallout with Ottawa after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Indian diplomatic agents of an alleged involvement in the assassination of the Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia in June 2023; following which protests against the Indian Diplomatic Offices in Canada have strained Indo-Canada ties.

Protests have been reported against the changes to immigration rules in the Canadian province of Prince Edward Island, which could further affect the education and tourism potential of the two countries. Protests organized by the Khalistani separatists have been taken as a threat to the national security of India, while Ottawa perceives the issue against the right to self-determination and sovereignty of Canada, might alter foreign policy goals towards the West. India’s quest towards maintaining strategic autonomy remains critical with the potential escalation of the Taiwan Crisis and the United States – China rivalry, given its adherence to a free and open Indo-Pacific against the maritime expansion of Beijing in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.

India-China and the Neighbourhood First

The ‘’Neighbourhood First Policy’’ and the ‘‘Act East Policy’’ can ensure improved ties with the neighborhood, while securing maritime territorial rights of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka, however, clashes due to the fisherman issue and over Katchatheevu island could further push Colombo close to Beijing.

An influx of Rohingya refugees along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border could as well pose a challenge to the coalition government, while the administration seeks to implement the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC), to deport refugees back to their home countries. The issue could further be exacerbated by the ongoing human rights crisis in the north-east, concerns have already been raised by the United States and the European Union. The Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina took a visit to Beijing, wherein the development of Teesta Basin and failure on the part of New Delhi to formalize the water sharing agreement might push Dhaka closer to Beijing, as it conducted an agreement on Rohingya Repatriation. Beijing has been developing infrastructure in the Indian Ocean, which could jeopardize New Delhi’s efforts to emerge as the net security provider in the global south.

Economy, diaspora, and humanitarian assistance

Economic policies and foreign policies are likely to be shaped by elections in the European Union, Brazil, the United Kingdom, the United States, Indonesia, and South Africa. Economic diplomacy shaped the conclusion of the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) with four member European Free Trade Association (EFTA), debt restructuring in Sri Lanka, military assistance and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations in Maldives, Bangladesh, and Nepal. Ukraine War and Israel-Palestine conflict will further define relations with the European Union, on the other hand, China, Egypt, and the United States have been involved in peace negotiations in the Middle East, wherein continuation of close cooperation with Israel, amidst the ongoing war might affect India’s relations with the West, though New Delhi could continue providing humanitarian relief for Palestinians.

Speaking of the Ukraine-Russia War, New Delhi refused to condemn the war or back any international sanctions, while New Delhi enabled evacuation for the diaspora stuck in the warzone. Moscow further promised to discharge Indians caught up in the Russian conflict, who were falsely inducted to join its army and forced into active combat in Ukraine, some of them were suspected to have been trafficked; the issue however, can be taken up against the ruling government.

Economic Collaborations under Viksit Bharat

De-dollarisation and currency swap agreement with Russia could as well lead to investments, though New Delhi has been diversifying its defense partnership from the largest arms supplier to the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Israel. The international collaborations could further enable investments in the country, amidst shifting supply chain structures under the ‘’China Plus One (C+1)’’ policy under the ‘Make in India’ program, which could enable the country to escalate to a GDP of US$ 30 trillion economy under the ‘’Viksit Bharat’’ program by 2047.

New Delhi decided not to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), affecting its regional standing in South East Asia. However, defense production and exports based on ASEAN-India cooperation could pave the way out for economic development. The South Asian region especially gained prominence after leaders from Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Seychelles were invited to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Modi, depicting the implementation of the ‘’Neighbourhood First’’ Policy and ‘’SAGAR’’ Vision. The foreign policy marked a continuity of balancing deterrence and diplomacy, with anti-piracy naval deployments in the Indian Ocean and countering attacks in the Red Sea Region, thereby protecting freedom of navigation amidst the ongoing Israel-Palestinian War, as mentioned in the 2024 manifesto. The agenda has been taken up ahead of the possibility of Beijing expanding its presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), which is likely to be countered by New Delhi conducting naval and military exercises and training missions.

The Approach of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam

India will continue extending its presence in the Indo-Pacific, while it has issued a line of credit to neighboring countries. The foreign policy approach needs to be balanced with the potential escalation of anti-India rhetoric due to ongoing tensions in the northeast, social unrest, communal disharmony, and a perceived fall in democratic values including freedom of speech and civil liberties.

The economic grit might be jeopardized by falling demographic dividend, potential influx of refugees, burgeoning internal instability due to communal disharmony, and implementing a uniform civil code which could lead to conflict with the opposition. The issues can also affect unobstructed parliamentary functioning; the opposition, however, supports labor reforms, instilling entrepreneurship, vocational training, tourism, and tech-based development, which could also be enabled by the diaspora supporting higher education and research initiatives, in turn, India provides for capacity building and training based on the initiative of ‘‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.”

Domestic strife and unstable geopolitical environment could potentially undermine India’s soft power, and pose a challenge to the demographic dividend which could lead India to become the third-largest economy by 2030. An increase in terror activities during the G-20 Summit and the post-elections oath-taking ceremony makes it imperative to revisit national security – the hawkish approach initially paved by the “2014 Doval Doctrine”.