By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN
On January 17, 1999, the 8th anniversary of the outbreak of the Gulf War, two People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers, Colonel Qiao Liang and Colonel Wang Xiangsui released their book “Unrestricted Warfare: China’s master plan to destroy America”. The date chosen for release of the book had special significance as the Gulf War of 1991 was the first war of the modern era in which computers were used to take out the daily flight plans of over 1000 fighter aircrafts that were operating in Iraq as part of the US-led 42-nation multi-coalition force. For the first time ever, computers were used in live military operations.
The 196-page well-written book had just a simple message to convey that anything that can be weaponised, will be weaponised. The book did not garner much interest in the USA for many years after its release, till it was too late and China had overtaken the USA in economic, military and diplomatic power. The book now is a compulsory-read in most of the US military training institutions and combat formations. A typical example of “Too little, too late”.
After the success of the Gulf War of 1991, militarily known as Operation Desert Storm, which lasted from January 17, 1991 to February 28, 1991 saw the USA led 42-nation coalition, exhibiting unprecedent level of professionalism that included a whopping 1000 aircraft sorties being undertaken daily, which were totally decided by computers based on the daily inputs given, USA promulgated the Full Spectrum Operations Doctrine in 2001, replacing the Airland Battle Doctrine of 1982.
The Full Spectrum Operations Doctrine of 2001enshrined that the cumulative effect of dominance in air, land, maritime, space domains and information environment that includes cyberspace, that permits the conduct of joint operations without effective opposition or prohibitive interference. This would espouse a strategic intent capable of achieving full spectrum superiority in a conflict, enabling the control of any situation across the range of military operations, by defeating any adversary.
Surprisingly, China became the only nation in the world to publicly declare its competency and capability to fight any nation in the world in consonance with the Full Spectrum Operations Doctrine. In 2014, PLA in its military doctrine called Joint Integrated Operations stated that it is ready to fight any country anywhere in the world in all the six-domains of war consisting Land, Sea, Air, Cyber, Electromagnetic Spectrum and Space.
Interestingly, such a declaration has not been made till date by any other military of the world including USA, who despite propounding the Full Spectrum Operations Doctrine in 2001, lay basking in its success of the 1991 Gulf War, whilst China stealthily and secretly worked towards establishing supremacy in the full spectrum operations warfare, pretty much understanding well how the future modern wars would be fought.
Water as a War Domain
On July 08, 2025, Pema Khandu, the Chief Minister of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh that borders China, in a candid statement admitted that the Medog Dam being built by China is a “ticking water bomb” and poses an existential threat to the state, became the first Indian government functionary to openly admit so.
This statement by the Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister set all speculations to rest over a raging debate in Indian media and social media regarding the danger that the Medog Dam on the River Brahmaputra, poses to India. Thereby, heralding China’s 7th domain of war – Water!
River Brahmaputra, known as River Yarlung Tsangpo in China, flows for a total length of 2900 kilometres. Of which, 1625 kilometres is in China, 916 kilometres in India and the balance 359 kilometres is the flow in Bangladesh, before entering the final destination of the Bay of Bengal.
The Medog Dam, whose construction was officially announced by China on July 19, 2025 with the groundbreaking ceremony being held at the dam site of Nyingchi’s Mainling hydropower station in the Tibet Autonomous Region, is being built at a cost of US$ 167.8 billion. The project consisting of five cascade hydropower stations will generate 300 billion kWh of electricity each year, after it is completed in 2030. On completion, the Medog Dam will be three times bigger than the Three Gorges Dam constructed by China on River Yangtze in 2003 which is regarded as the biggest dam constructed till date.
The Medog Dam, regarded as the largest infrastructure project in the world on completion, is being built at a huge gorge in the Himalayan reaches where the River Brahmaputra makes a big U-turn and the river plunges nearly two kilometres, to flow into Arunachal Pradesh onto Assam and then further to Bangladesh.
Once the Medog Dam is completed in five years, China will control the river flow at a scale and size that would enable it to release large amounts of water to flood the areas downstream in times of hostilities commencing between India and China. The major brunt of this intentional flooding would be Arunachal Pradesh, as this Indian state is China’s military target.
Why Arunachal Pradesh is being eyed by China?
Interestingly, till 2007 China showed no great interest in Arunachal Pradesh. In fact, after China’s win over India in the 1962 war, it withdrew back from NEFA as Arunachal Pradesh was known then, despite entering as much as 60 kilometres inside India at some places in this area.
After the 1962 war, while China did not withdraw from Aksai Chin in its Western Sector, it did so from Arunachal Pradesh in its Eastern Sector, thus showing clearly that it did not accord much importance to the occupation of Arunachal Pradesh that time.
Rather it is widely believed that till 2007, China’s occasional raising of the Arunachal Pradesh issue was more to use it is a bargaining chip with India to gain India’s recognition of Aksai Chin as a part of China, in turn of China’s recognition of Arunachal Pradesh being part of India. This is exactly what Zhou Enlai had proposed in his November 04, 1962 letter to Jawaharlal Nehru as the India-China War raged on.
However, China’s attitude towards India on the Arunachal Pradesh issue changed drastically after it became the world’s third biggest economy in 2007. With deep pockets that China was now sitting with, it felt that it was time to make it clear to India about its reversal of intentions over Arunachal Pradesh.
Two important events happened in 2009 which made clear China’s interest for Arunachal Pradesh.
One, China started issuing stapled visas to the residents of Arunachal Pradesh desirous of visiting China for any purpose, be it tourist, business or official. This was a clear signal from China that it no longer recognises Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India. A stapled visa is different from a regular visa in the sense that the country issuing stapled visas does not stamp the visa on the passport of the individual, rather a paper slip visa is stapled to the passport.
Two, the two visits of The Dalai Lama, the Highest Spiritual Leader and Head of Tibetan Buddhism, to Arunachal Pradesh in April & November 2009, were taken adversely by China. A statement issued by China during the nine-days visit in April 2009 of The Dalai Lama warned India of bilateral ties being hurt and peace being severely damaged.
And during the four-day November 2009 visit, The Dalai Lama hinted that the next Dalai Lama will not be from China. A clear indication that his successor would come from this Indian state that borders China and has 11.77% Buddhist population. China was infuriated.
For, it brought to fore an issue that seemed to have faded away. On May 14, 1995, The 14th Dalai Lama announced Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, the six-year-old Buddhist born in Tibet, as the 11th Panchen Lama. The Panchen Lama is the second-highest figure in Tibetan Buddhism and is traditionally recognised as the next Dalai Lama. Three days later, this young boy was kidnapped in China, never to be found ever again.
On December 08, 1995, China announced Gyaincain Norbu as the 11th Panchen Lama which was rejected outright by The Dalai Lama and the Tibetans residing in China as well as those in exile in India.
However, the period 1996 to 2008 saw relative calm on the successor issue, till The Dalai Lama’s two visits to Arunachal Pradesh in 2009 riled the Chinese. The statement by His Holiness on March 10, 2025 that his successor will be born outside China in the “free world” signalled the announcement of his successor any time soon, has led to increased tensions between India and China. These tensions will aggravate after China wages the war for Taiwan in 2027, as Taiwan is China’s first military target.
The next military target after Taiwan for China after it attacks this island nation in 2027, is Arunachal Pradesh.
India’s preparedness for China’s Water War
Before the River Brahmaputra enters India from China, it has only 14% of the total Annual Water Yield (AWY), with the balance 86% being filled-up in India. 33 tributaries contribute to the river’s AWY on the Indian soil.
The maximum discharge of the Brahmaputra recorded has been 72,779 cubic metres per second (CUMEC) in August 1962 and the minimum water discharge has been 1757 CUMEC in February 1968. Thus, implying that the campaigning season (military slang for the duration when war is expected the most) of winter months from October to March will have the least water flowing in the river. With a colossal storage facility in the form of the Medog Dam, China can suddenly release water which will result in flooding in Arunachal Pradesh in matter of days, as the location of the Medog Dam is just 30 kilometres from the border, also known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Arunachal Pradesh is roughly 650 kilometres wide (West to East) and 320 kilometres in length (North to South), with a total area of 83,743 square kilometres. China flooding the River Brahmaputra (known as River Siang in Arunachal Pradesh) in the state, will create problems of immense magnitude and this process will not take more than 48-72 hours to put the flooding in effect.
India’s plans to build a dam on the river in Begging, a remote village in Arunachal Pradesh known as the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP), 267-metres tall dam with a targeted output of 11,000 MW at a cost of US$ 17.5 billion. SUMP is India’s counter to China’s Medog Dam. On May 21, 2025, the team of National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) tasked with conducting the pre-feasibility study for the construction of SUMP was met with stiff resistance by the local populace, leading to them retreating to the town of Pasighat, 98-kilometers away.
SUMP has failed to take-off whereas the construction of the Medog Dam has commenced.
Arunachal Pradesh currently has only the 68-meters tall Ranganadi Dam in Lower Subansiri constructed in 2001 while the 130-metres tall Subansiri Lower Hydro Electric Dam is under construction since December 2007.
Clearly, India’s preparation for the water war that China will unleash consequent to the completion of the Medog Dam is grossly inadequate. China’s military target is Arunachal Pradesh; hence it would let the flooding create catastrophe in the state before it unleashes the other six domains of modern warfare on India.
The two-front war on India
Out of the seven domains of modern warfare that China will unleash on India, in three of them air, space and water, India is at a gross disadvantage.
As far as air power is concerned, India will have 29 squadrons of fighter aircrafts after the MiG-21 fighter aircrafts are phased out in September 2025, as against the authorised strength of 42 squadrons. China has 66 squadrons. Pakistan has 25 squadrons of fighter aircrafts. Thus, September 2025 onwards, 29 squadrons of the Indian Air Force will be pitted against 91 squadrons combined of the PLAAF and Pakistan Air Force in the event of the outbreak of the two-front war.
In space power, China has 246 military satellites whereas India has 26 military satellites. China’s Beidou Navigation Satellite System is fully functional with 56 satellites. The Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System, known operationally as NavIC, is facing severe challenges with only four of the 11 satellites operational. Of these four, one satellite (IRNSS-1B) has exceeded its planned life of 10 years and can stop functioning anytime and another satellite (IRNSS-1F) has only a year left to complete its service.
In the domain of water warfare, as explained above India will be at a great disadvantage after China completes the Medog Dam in 2030.
Thus, out of the seven domains of modern warfare that China will wage on India when the Balloon Goes Up (the military slang meaning the commencement of war), that include land, sea, air, space, electromagnetic spectrum, space and water, India in on a clear backfoot in three – air, space and water.
Ever since the regime change has happened in Bangladesh on August 05, 2024, the nation has been turning blatantly anti-India and the collusivity between China, Pakistan & Bangladesh has been deepening. And so is the military cooperation between the three nations increasing. On July 09, 2025, General Anil Chauhan, the Chief of Defence Staff of the Indian Armed Forces, stated that the convergence of interests between China, Pakistan & Bangladesh will have serious implications for India’s stability and security dynamics.
Laamu Atoll in Maldives, Gwadar port in Pakistan, Hamabantota port in Sri Lanka, Kyaukphyu island in Myanmar and Cox Bazaar port in Bangladesh are part of China’s “String of Pearls” plan to encircle India by the sea-route.
As it is, the LAC & Line of Control (the militarised border between India & Pakistan) are one reinforced front as far as China & Pakistan is concerned. With Bangladesh clearly in their kitty and Nepal too tilted towards the China & Pakistan combine, China is planning to encircle India by the land-route as well.
The two-front war to be waged jointly by China & Pakistan on India will commence any time after 2030 as by then the construction of the Medog Dam would be completed.
The two-front war to be waged by China & Pakistan on India will commence with China’s newest domain of modern warfare, Water. The two-front war will see Pakistan initiating the war by kinetic means on the Indian Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir, after China commences the flooding from the Medog Dam. And then to support Pakistan’s kinetic action on India, China will use the issue of the Dalai Lama’s successor to attack India in Arunachal Pradesh by launching cyber, electromagnetic spectrum and space warfare and little later will the PLA involve kinetic warfare comprising its army, navy and the air force.
As the flooding starts taking effect in Arunachal Pradesh, the Indian response would naturally be flood rescue and relief and it is at this point of time that China will use cyberwarfare, electromagnetic spectrum warfare and space warfare to disrupt and disturb India non-kinetically before eventually launching kinetic warfare.
It is these domains of modern warfare that India has to be fully prepared for, as India will be combatting the seven domains of the modern warfare in Arunachal Pradesh and the six domains of modern warfare in Jammu & Kashmir as China will fully aid and abet Pakistan with cyber, electromagnetic spectrum and space capabilities. A trailer of which was clearly visible in Operation Sindoor, the 88-hour military conflict that lasted between India & Pakistan in May 2025.
On July 04, 2025 Lieutenant General Rahul R Singh, the Deputy Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army in a seminar in New Delhi candidly spoke of Pakistan receiving live updates of the Indian Army’s vectors from China, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours were embroiled in the 88-hour military confrontation from May 07-10, 2025. The General Officer also mentioned of China using Pakistan as a live laboratory for testing its weapons.
Pakistan in a one-on-one military confrontation has never been a challenge for India. But the China-Pakistan two-front war that can be waged any time after 2030, looks a formidable challenge to India in the present conditions and circumstances. India has just over five years to prepare in all the seven domains of modern warfare, that includes Water!
The statement of the Indian Chief of Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan on July 25, 2025 that there are no runners-up in a war, holds immense significance as the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh military embrace gets stronger with each passing day and the construction of the Medog Dam progresses towards its completion in 2030.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd) is the Founder-Editor, Global Strategic & Defence News and has authored the book “China’s War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate”. He tweets at @JassiSodhi24.
