When Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently spoke positively about India’s relationship with China, suggesting that normalcy had returned to the disputed border and calling for stronger ties, it took everyone by surprise. Given the history of animosity between the two nations, his remarks stand out, especially considering that just four years ago, the two countries saw their deadliest border clash since the 1962 war.

China, too, responded with cautious optimism. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning welcomed Modi’s words, stating that India and China should be “partners in each other’s success.” This exchange signals a possible thaw in relations, but it would be premature to assume a full-fledged rapprochement , and while both nations have made efforts to mend ties, deep-rooted geopolitical and strategic differences continue to cast a long shadow over the relationship.

The Bright Spots in India-China Ties
Despite their differences, India and China are deeply intertwined, particularly in trade. Even after the Ladakh clashes, China has remained India’s largest trade partner, and economic ties have remained resilient. Beyond commerce, both countries engage in multilateral platforms like BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, advocating for alternative global economic models, opposing Islamist extremism, and pushing back against what they see as Western moral policing.

Even at their lowest point in decades, diplomatic and military communication never entirely broke down. High-level military talks led to an October agreement to resume border patrols. Modi and Xi Jinping met at the BRICS summit in Russia, where they pledged further cooperation. The two countries even resumed direct flights earlier this year, a sign of incremental normalization.

Roadblocks to True Reconciliation
However, despite these positive developments, the India-China relationship remains fragile. Both countries have deep security ties with each other’s primary adversaries – India aligns with the US, while China maintains close strategic ties with Pakistan.

Moreover, Beijing has frequently blocked India’s ambitions on the global stage, whether it’s denying New Delhi’s bid for permanent membership in the UN Security Council or the Nuclear Suppliers Group. It also remains at odds with India’s position on Kashmir. Meanwhile, India strongly opposes China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which includes projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, a region claimed by India.

Tensions also extend beyond the subcontinent. China has a growing naval footprint in the Indian Ocean, with its only overseas military base located in Djibouti – India’s broader maritime backyard. India, on the other hand, has been strengthening its defense partnerships, negotiating the sale of supersonic missiles to Southeast Asian nations wary of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.

New Delhi has also been deepening its engagement with Taiwan, a move Beijing perceives as highly provocative. Furthermore, India continues to host the Dalai Lama, whom China views as a dangerous separatist figure. These long-standing irritants ensure that any reconciliation will be an uphill battle.

The Winds Of Change
While the recent warming of ties is a positive development, it remains to be seen whether this trend will hold. Several key developments could indicate where the relationship is headed, including border negotiations, trade shifts, and geopolitical alignments.

So, does this signal a real turning point? Or is it just diplomatic posturing?

The Border
At the heart of India-China tensions lies their long-disputed border, with around 50,000 square miles which is roughly the size of Greece, still contested. The border situation is the biggest indicator of how things stand between the two nations. The Ladakh clash shattered trust, but last year’s patrolling deal helped restore some confidence. If both sides can agree on more trust-building measures, it would mark a significant step toward stability.

Another key moment to watch is potential high-level engagement. Modi and Xi Jinping, both strong believers in personal diplomacy, could meet on the sidelines of global summits—BRICS in July, G20 in November, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) later in the year. If such meetings happen, they could reinforce the recent momentum in bilateral ties.

Economics, Can Trade Bridge the Gap?
Chinese investment in India is another crucial factor. With India facing an $85 billion trade deficit with China, more Chinese capital flowing into key sectors like manufacturing and renewables could help balance the scales. Stronger economic ties would not only boost India’s industries but also give China better access to the world’s fastest-growing major economy. If both nations have more economic skin in the game, there will be greater incentives to keep tensions in check.

The Geopolitical Chessboard
India’s regional dynamics also play a role. Recent leadership changes in four of India’s neighbors – Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka – have brought in more pro-China governments. However, these countries have so far balanced ties between Beijing and Delhi instead of picking sides. If this trend continues, India might feel less anxious about China’s growing influence in its backyard.

China’s relationship with Russia is another factor. Moscow has grown more reliant on Beijing due to the Ukraine war. But if the war ends and China scales back its support for Russia, it could open new diplomatic opportunities for India and China to ease tensions.

The Trump Factor
Then there’s the wildcard – Donald Trump  – while Trump imposed tariffs on China, he has also indicated a willingness to mend ties. If US-China tensions cool under Trump’s second  presidency, India might rethink its own strategic positioning. Additionally, Trump’s likely protectionist policies could hit India with hefty tariffs, giving Delhi another reason to strengthen economic cooperation with Beijing.

The Last Bit, Real Change or Just Rhetoric?
India and China are natural competitors, two of Asia’s biggest economies and ancient civilizations, both with ambitions of global leadership. However, despite the differences, the recent diplomatic overtures suggest a pragmatic shift.

If both sides can build on these positive developments, through border agreements, economic collaboration, and careful geopolitical maneuvering, there stands a real chance for a more stable relationship. The big question is whether Modi’s conciliatory words translate into sustained progress or remain just diplomatic niceties.