Thursday
October 9, 2025

Can Donald Trump end the Russia–Ukraine War?

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By: Shreya Dabral, Research Analyst, GSDN

Pictorial representation of the leaders: source Internet

One of the most frequent campaign promises repeated by Donald J. Trump upon his return to the White House in January 2025 remains stark and clear: “I will be quick to end the war in Ukraine, very quickly.” To his supporters, the statement represented Trump as a supreme dealmaker who could solve any of the most intractable conflicts of the world merely with the sheer force of wills and personal negotiations. To his opponents, it was simply the empty dream that failed to realize how unprecedented the war in Europe was since the Second World War.

The Russia-Ukraine War, now in its fourth year of full-scale fighting, has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions, disrupted world energy supplies, and forced military and diplomatic realignments on multiple continents. The notion that one man (even the U.S. president), could stop it within a short time has been one of the hottest debates in Washington and Moscow, not mentioning Kyiv and elsewhere.

So is this a promise that Trump can actually fulfil? To respond to this, it is insufficient to refer to the statements used in the campaigns but rather into the actualities of the battlefield conditions, political red-lines with both Moscow and Kyiv, and also the extent of the presidential power. This article analyses the history of war, the overseas policy of Trump, the positions of the most essential players and the scenarios that could take place.

Historical Background – What Led to Staging of the War?

The roots of the strife are laid significantly earlier than the time of Trump holding the position of president. On the one hand, the shift toward closer ties with the West and Europe among Ukraine that was seen after the Maidan Revolution of 2014 prompted Russia to annex Crimea. This triggered a protracted insurgency in eastern Ukraine that was aided by Moscow. The Minsk Agreements of 2015 are only partially successful because the situation proved to be still rather tense.

By February 2022, Russia invaded outright with the Russian war against Ukraine, in an excuse that Ukraine was going to be demilitarized and de-nazified. The war rapidly mutated into a slog with unprecedented destruction, sanctions imposed by the whole world against Russia, and an unprecedented number of Western officials actively participating in providing military aid to Poland.

In 2022-24, the battle line changed but not convincingly. Ukraine recaptured huge swathes of land in counteroffensives, and Russia dug in across the Donbas and south Ukraine. It turned into a war of attrition as was artillery battles, drone wars and loss of large numbers.

By the second term of Trump in office, the war had become a key legitimating test of global security architecture: could the West maintain the principle that borders cannot be adjusted through the use of force? Or would Russia be able to gain concessions that rewarded aggression?

The Trump Foreign Policy Legacy – A Tangled History

The foreign policy of the Trump administration in the United States in the first term (20172021), gives insight into its attitude to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He was notorious in his distrust of NATO, insisting at various times that it had become obsolete and that its European members needed to spend significantly more on defence. His friendship with Vladimir Putin was rather friendly and this attracted criticism within the nation. In 2019, he held back military support to Ukraine to the centre of a political controversy that resulted in his first impeachment.

Meanwhile, Trump did authorize deadly support to Ukraine (long resisted by Obama) as well as sanctioning Russia on certain matters. His manner was transactional, less on ideology and more on what he thought were the U.S. interests.

The background thus gives Trump the inheritance of a sceptic of traditional allies, a believer in a personal diplomacy where leaders converse face-to-face, and an eagerness to break with long-established policy in order to achieve what he thinks is likely to be advantageous.

Trump Claims-The War ends in a hurry

Since his recent arrival in the office, Trump has not presented a comprehensive description of his plan to end the war publicly. His sweeping assertion is that he can get both parties to the table of negotiations, by using American influence and his personal rapport with leaders. Reports of his inner circle indicate that he visualizes:

  • Ceasefire as a beginning point – freezing the frontline where it is
  • Security assurances short of NATO: giving Ukraine military aid but not membership.
  • Sanctions relief of Russia – as an element of an agreement, in case Moscow ceases major offensives.
  • Direct negotiations with Putin and Zelenskyy – where Trump plays the key role.

Although the promise of imminent peace is tempting, the grand question is whether Trump will be able to patch up positions that remain hopelessly divided.

The Kremlin standpoint- The red lines of Putin

The demands of Russia have remained constant:

  • Recognition of the annexed territories (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia).
  • A commitment not to accept Ukraine into NATO.
  • A ban on Western weapons and bases in Ukraine.

These are not simply ploys in the negotiating process to Putin, but rather key to the survival of his regime. The idea of surrendering occupied territories would be unpopular among a domestic audience, whereas yielding territory to NATO would undermine his well-publicized goal of slowing Western expansion.

Therefore, a U.S.-sponsored settlement that does not take these demands into consideration runs the risk of being flat out rejected by Moscow.

The Kyiv Position -The Peace Formula of Zelenskyy

The 10-point Peace Formula as proposed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demands:

  • A complete restoration of Ukraine to its borders in 1991.
  • Accountability of the Russian war crimes.
  • Retreat of the Russians.
  • It is reliable security that is guaranteed.

The constitution of Ukraine forbids giving up territory. The opinion which is strongly against concessions is prevalent in the country after years of war and atrocities. To Zelenskyy, or any Ukrainian president, such a person could hardly survive politically by acknowledging the results of the Russian annexations.

Therefore, the dissimilarity between the demands in Moscow and position in Kyiv is enormous. How Trump achieves this warfare challenge will depend on how he manages to bridge a gap that has so far defied any diplomatic attempts to resolve the same.

The Battlefield in 2025 – Fluid again

By mid-2025 the war was not at all frozen. There are new offensives by Russia in the Donbas region, whereas Ukraine maintains its position as a defender and limited counterattacks. Advanced weapons used in air defences and long-range missiles are introduced which have made certain areas stable but there is no clear winning side.

That kind of background means both Russia and Ukraine must feel there is still time to centre the battlefield in their favour. This minimizes motives to compromise-why offer to compromise with potential victory or at least greater bargaining advantage to come tomorrow?

Trump may desire speedy peace but it is not generally so, wars do not end because someone on the outside wants it so.

What Trump Can Do- The Levers of Power

Trump has enormous influence being the President of the United States:

  • Military Aid – He can expedite, slow or impose conditions to the aid to Ukraine.
  • Sanctions – He can relax or modify sanctions against Russia and alter its financial/economic calculations.
  • Diplomatic routes – He can call summits, contact back- channels and exert pressure on allies.
  • NATO Unity – by his formulations on U.S. commitments, he can either consolidate or divide allies.

These tools can be very strong, though they are not omnipotent. Trump cannot push Kyiv to give up territory unwillingly, and can never pressure Putin to give up his goals of regime preservation.

Constraints of U.S. Power

The American presidents work within limits

  • Congress has control over the financing Trump cannot waive or add aid without congressional manoeuvrings
  • Allies possess agency of their own Europe, NATO, and others will not settle with a deal which speculates on their security.
  • Ukraine is independent. Compressing it to make concessions would be disastrous to U.S. credibility in the international environment.

Even the personal preference of Trump to have a deal, therefore, comes to naught without a coalition willing to follow a Trumpian course.

Europe & NATO -The Outer Ring of Limitations

In its Summit of 2024 in Washington, NATO called Ukraine membership in the alliance irreversible. Leaders in Europe have as well signed on to joint communiques indicating that they do not want to give way to territorial concessions to them, such a settlement that will reward Russia with invasion will create a bad precedent.

This is complicated by Trump being sceptical of NATO. In case he forces a deal that Europeans do not appreciate, the alliance may break up, reducing the collective strength of the West.

The presence of China, the Global South and other players

In addition to the two capitals: Washington and Moscow, other powers also affect the conflict. China has projected itself as a kind of potential mediator; however, given its pro-Russian reputations, it has received scepticism in Kyiv. India, Brazil and South Africa have appealed to peace without taking any sides.

These actors allow Russia to take a reprieve in diplomacy to minimise the impact of U.S. pressure alone. In the case of Trump, he cannot sit at the negotiating table alone.

What might happen under Trump?

1. Rapid Ceasefire, and dependable “Freeze”

Both sides are pressured by Trump to cease the offensives and concretize the existing lines of control. Russia maintains de facto control of occupied regions and security assurances to Ukraine; United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom will provide secure, permanent homes to Ukrainians; United States will provide Ukraine with security assurances Threats: unsteady cease-fire, future intensification.

2. Protection under a NATO- Fred Kudlak

Ukraine is supplied with weapons by the Western countries but not offered NATO membership Russia abandons immediate offensives but does not quit the ground Risks: Kyiv will perceive it as a betrayal; Moscow will reorganize itself to attack in the future.

3. Grand Bargain -Sanctions Withdrawal

Russia restores boundaries to pre-2022 levels in exchange for a gradual removal of sanctions and restrictions imposed by the West on troops. Not likely in the absence of heavy Russian loss

4. Instead of Peace, Escalation

In case talks fail and aid is cut, Russia would have the incentive of putting greater pressure militarily, rendering the conflict more protracted. To attain quick peace is also the motive of Trump, which ironically may spur instability.

Why Quick Peace Is Often Impossible

  • The structural barriers are tremendous
  • Russia still feels that it can wait down the west
  • Ukraine is not a country to concede territory either by law or by politics
  • The NATO allies will not approve the moral rewarding of aggression
  • There must be credible enforcement of any settlement and this must take time and unity.

Those facts imply that Trump cannot decree peace by decree.

Consequences of the Global Order

The result of this move by Trump will have resonance much beyond Eastern Europe:

  • In case of success, he would transform international relations and prove the superiority of the U.S. in the third world.
  • Failed, U.S. credibility might be damaged, NATO unity might be lost and authoritarian states might be emboldened.
  • The outcome to the war or the extension of it will also determine energy markets and arms trade and international law.

Conclusion – Does Trump Have the Ability to trim the War?

Donald Trump can affect the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict more than any other single figure not on the battlefield. He holds huge military and economic leverages and his unorthodox diplomacy can open the doors to negotiations.

But influence is not commanding. The destiny of the war is decided by transfer-holders by the interests and survival of Moscow and Kyiv respectively. As long as Russia claims that it wishes to conquer some territories, and Ukraine refuses to give up, no immediate ceasefire can be achieved.

Trump can coerce, cajole and suggest. He can hold summits and guarantee bargains. However, until the underlying positions of the warring parties change, he will always be referring in the same measure to a slogan than a solution of ending the war quickly.

That is to say: A U.S. president can change incentives and influence diplomacy, but he cannot simply order peace to prevail in a war, which is an existential fight on both ends.

About the Author

Shreya Dabral is pursuing her Master’s in Mass Communication from Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, New Delhi. She balances her academic journey with active roles in research and digital media. Her research paper on consumer repurchase behaviour in the skincare industry, published in the International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Trends (IJSRET), is a testament to her curiosity, clarity, and commitment to exploring audience-brand dynamics in a digital age.

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Genius
Genius
1 month ago

Trump may have leverage, but peace in Ukraine isn’t about one man’s dealmaking. With Kyiv and Moscow’s red lines poles apart, quick fixes risk rewarding aggression. Real peace needs unity, time, and hard compromises.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Kudos to writer Shreya for such sharp and insightful analysis!

Name Larson
Name Larson
1 month ago

Thank you for the auspicious writeup It in fact was a amusement account it Look advanced to more added agreeable from you By the way how could we communicate

Ernesto Schimmel
Ernesto Schimmel
1 month ago

Your writing is like a breath of fresh air in the often stale world of online content. Your unique perspective and engaging style set you apart from the crowd. Thank you for sharing your talents with us.

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