By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN

Relations with Pakistan has gained a new dimension during the current interim government in Bangladesh. Recently, due to the fall of Awami League government and the interim government taking control in Dhaka may give Pakistan and its ‘iron brother’ China a strategic advantage on the eastern part of India. It is said that Pakistan has quietly started trying to reorganize its relations with Bangladesh. Pakistan will take this opportunity to make defence and economic ties with Bangladesh in order to increase the military strength of both countries. At the same time, some radical organizations from both countries can also take this opportunity to influence radicalization in the eastern part of India.

After more than five decades of Bangladesh being granted of diplomatic recognition from Pakistan it is time to analyse the relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh. Lack of physical connectivity, direct flights and sea linkages between the cities of Bangladesh and Pakistan is one of the main reasons among others such as blocking of economic, trade, cultural, educational and defence ties by the former Awami League government.

Pakistan-Bangladesh relation and obstacles

On February 22, 1974, on the occasion of second Islamic summit held in Lahore, Pakistan made a historic decision to recognise Bangladesh as Dhaka was not ready to attend that conference without seeking recognition from Islamabad. Fifty years down the road, Pakistan and Bangladesh have started rethinking the rationale of stagnation in their relations from other angle. From 1971 to 2015, the relations between the two countries witnessed periodic normalcy but things got worsened during the third regime of Sheikh Hasina from 2015 onwards.

The biggest stumbling-block between Pakistan and Bangladesh relationship is the demand of apology for the war crimes Pakistan committed in the Bangladesh liberation war. According to the Bangladesh, Pakistan killed around 3 million people and the roughly 200,000 women were raped by Pakistani soldiers, and the millions who were driven across the border with India to seek shelter in refugee camps. However, Pakistan raised question over the integrity of the statistics claimed by Bangladesh. According to Pakistan, it was tactically impossible for 40,000 soldiers posted in the then East Pakistan to commit mass atrocities of such a scale. Although, Pakistan acknowledged that crimes were committed by “some” of the soldiers.

Ups and downs on the relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh are heavily influenced by internal politics of Bangladesh. The ‘Pakistan card’ is often used to control or influence popular public sentiments in Bangladesh. In past former Foreign Minister of Bangladesh Muhammad Shamsul Haq supported the Pakistan-Bangladesh relations by stating “Bangladesh and Pakistan were bound by many common ties routed in a shared history and culture, which was overshadowed but not obliterated by the tragic happenings of 1971.”

Relations between the two countries also deteriorated as Hasina’s government executed several pro-Islamabad Bangladeshi politicians. The resolution passed by Pakistan’s National Assembly was bitterly criticised by Bangladesh when Pakistan’s condemned the executions of Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader Salahuddin Choudhry and Ali Ahsan Mujahid. Sheikh Hasina accusing Pakistan of interfering in its domestic affairs and imposed travel restrictions between both countries. Hasina’s tilt towards favouring India was clearly seen as an animosity against Pakistan.

This resulted in the suspension of direct flights between Dhaka and Karachi. Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) stopped flying to Dhaka in 2018. Similarly, the Joint Economic Commission between the two countries also remained inactive for years. There has also been no top government-level visit between the two countries for years now, and the foreign secretary consultations remain suspended since 2016. The last official visit to Bangladesh from Pakistan’s side was in July 2002 by the then President Pervez Musharraf whereas from Bangladeshi side it has been several decades that an official visit has taken place.

Possible scenario after Sheikh Hasina

On August 5, 2024 Hasina stepped down and fled to India and the interim government took power three days later. Diplomats of countries, including Pakistan, have been meeting the leaders of the interim government to strengthen relations with Bangladesh. Recently, the Information Technology minister from Pakistan Nahid Islam said that Bangladesh aims to resolve the 1971 war issues with Pakistan to enhance relations and promote democracy in South Asia. Ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan were at an all-time low during Hasina’s tenure, especially after she put several leaders of the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami on charges of war crimes during the 1971 war.

Pakistani diplomats allege that Hasina’s closeness with New Delhi and the overall Indian influence on Bangladesh prevented Dhaka from normalising relations with Pakistan over the years. Awami League has always been against the idea making any kind of economic and military trades with Pakistan.

In the present time, majority of Bangladeshi population are of post 1971 generation and youth who have not seen the horrors of war crimes of Bangladesh independence. New generation of both the countries have not done or experienced the war crimes of 1971. Therefore, both the countries have stopped playing the victim card and have moved on. This is helping to build a healthy bilateral relationship, since they both have similar culture, religion, and traditions.

Warning Bells for India

The trade between Pakistan and Bangladesh could be concerning for India. Increase in defence cooperation between Bangladesh Pakistan could affect the region’s military power balance. Pakistan could do this by increasing economic, military, and political influence in Bangladesh. With Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus now heading Bangladesh’s interim government, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has expressed the desire to work with him to reopen cooperation between the two countries. With the new military-backed popular political order in Bangladesh firmly in place, now there is room for Pakistan to initiate baby steps to build trust and improve relations with Dhaka which is already causing concerns in India.

After Hasina fled, the interim government is trying to make military ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan. According to recent reports, Bangladesh bought nearly 40,000 artillery rounds,  2,000 units of tank ammunition, 40 tons of RDX explosives, and 2,900 high-intensity projectiles from Pakistan’s Ordinance Factories (POF). This defence deal after Hasina left the country, is seen as an unusual turn in Bangladesh’s military strategy. A Bangladeshi University professor even suggested to sign a nuclear treaty with Pakistan in order to provide a security umbrella to Bangladesh. Traditionally, Bangladesh has done defence trade from countries such as India, Russia, and China but a shift in defence strategy towards Pakistan can be concerning for India. While Bangladesh is unlikely to break military ties with India entirely, it might affect India’s military strategy and force India to re-evaluate its defence posture along the Bangladesh border.

India is also worried about is the possibility of increase in extremist ideology in Bangladesh.  The Radical organisations in Bangladesh may find it easier to expand without Awami League in power. It is considered that some of the radical organisation in Bangladesh have connections with Pakistan radical organisation as well as Pakistan Army’s spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). This could have a big impact on both politics and radicalisation in Bangladesh. This will raise military concern for India between India-Bangladesh border.

Conclusion

The evolving geopolitical and geo-military scenario between Pakistan and Bangladesh could influence internal politics in Bangladesh and make external influences in Pakistan, China, and India’s strategic response. For India, maintaining regional stability and protecting its national interests will require a recalibrated approach. By balancing diplomatic, economic, and defence ties, India can continue to play a vital role in shaping Bangladesh’s future while safeguarding its strategic position in South Asia.