Donald Trump’s return to the White House came with a flood of congratulatory messages from world leaders. And why not? Here was a man elected for a second term amid two prolonged wars – Ukraine vs. Russia and Israel vs. Hamas in Gaza. Many hoped that he would provide much-needed direction to help bring these conflicts to an end.
But Trump had other plans. Not only did he dash these expectations, but he went a step further and shook Europe to its core. His open disdain for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his dismissive stance on NATO, essentially telling the alliance to “take care of itself” has left European nations scrambling to rethink their security strategies. In contrast, his unwavering support for Israel remains firm.
Enter France. A European Nuclear Shield?
Even as this uncertainty played out in the global arena, French President Emmanuel Macron has floated a bold idea – one that could reshape Europe’s defense dynamics. On Wednesday, he suggested that France’s nuclear deterrence force (Force de Frappe) could be associated with the defense of other European nations.
This proposal has sparked outrage from hard-right and hard-left politicians, who claim that France is considering “sharing” its nuclear arsenal. The reality, however, is more nuanced. France, along with the UK, is one of only two European nations with nuclear weapons.
France possesses nearly 300 nuclear warheads, deployable from both submarines and France-based aircraft, while the UK has around 250. The key difference is that the French arsenal is entirely sovereign, developed independently by France, whereas the UK’s nuclear program relies on American technical support.
French officials, including Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, have been quick to clarify that nothing is being “shared.” He has reiterated that France’s nuclear deterrent “is French and will remain French from its conception to its production to its operation, under a decision of the president.”
So, what exactly is being proposed? Well, it is not about handing over the nuclear codes to other nations rather, the discussion revolves around whether France’s nuclear protection should be explicitly extended to include other European allies.
A Shift in French Nuclear Doctrine?
Until now, France’s nuclear doctrine has been built around the principle of deterrence, promising massive retaliation if the country’s “vital interests” are threatened. These “vital interests” have always been deliberately vague, as ambiguity is a key part of nuclear deterrence.
However, past French presidents, dating back to Charles de Gaulle, have hinted that some European nations might already be under this protective umbrella. In 1964, de Gaulle stated that if the USSR attacked Germany, France would consider itself threatened.
So, in many ways, Macron’s suggestion isn’t entirely new. What is new, however, is that for the first time, other European countries are actively asking for it.
European nations have traditionally been reluctant to engage in discussions about a French-led nuclear shield. But Trump’s stance has changed that perception. While the US is not pulling its nuclear deterrent from Europe, its credibility has weakened, leading Germany to reconsider its security options.
Last month, Friedrich Merz, the likely next German chancellor, surprised many by suggesting that it might be time for discussions with France and the UK on nuclear cooperation.
What Would a Franco-British Nuclear Deterrent Look Like?
The specifics of how a European nuclear deterrent might operate remain uncertain. However, defense analysts suggest a few possibilities –
French Nuclear-Armed Planes in Other European Countries: France could position nuclear-capable aircraft in allied countries like Germany or Poland. The decision to launch would still rest solely with the French president, but their presence would send a strong deterrence signal.
Extended Air Patrols: French bombers could patrol European borders, similar to how they currently secure French airspace.
Rapid Deployment Bases: Developing airfields in allied countries that could quickly accommodate French bombers in case of an emergency.
Is France’s Arsenal Enough to Deter Russia?
France’s 300 nuclear warheads are dwarfed by Russia’s vast arsenal; however, when combined with the UK’s stockpile, the number rises to 550. Additionally, the American nuclear deterrent remains in place, with US nuclear bombs stationed in Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.
One of the key debates is whether France should reformulate its nuclear doctrine to explicitly state that its “vital interests” extend to European allies. Some argue that no change is needed, as the existing strategic vagueness is part of the deterrence itself. Others, like Haroche, believe a clearer commitment would strengthen European solidarity.
France’s Emergence as Europe’s Security Anchor
With Trump effectively telling Europe to fend for itself, the continent is looking for alternatives. Enter France, stepping into the void left by the United States with Macron floating the idea of extending France’s nuclear deterrence to its European allies.
However, what does France stand to gain, and where does that leave the rest of Europe?
France’s Strategic Calculations
For France, perhaps it is not just about playing the responsible European leader. Macron sees an opportunity to solidify France’s role as the primary military power on the continent. Germany, despite its economic dominance, has always been reluctant to take on military leadership due to historical reasons, and the UK, post-Brexit, is somewhat detached from the EU’s collective defense vision. That leaves France as the natural contender to step up.
But what could France gain from this new posturing?
Firstly, by being seen as Europe’s security anchor, France strengthens its bargaining power within the EU and NATO. It shifts the balance of power, making Paris a key voice in defense policy rather than just a contributor.
Secondly, Berlin, now questioning the reliability of the U.S., is warming up to the idea of Franco-German security cooperation. This could lead to deeper defense collaborations, including joint nuclear strategies, military exercises, and technology sharing.
France’s defense sector, led by companies like Dassault and Naval Group, could see increased demand for nuclear deterrent capabilities, submarines, and missile systems. If European nations align with France’s deterrence plan, French defense contracts could see a major uptick.
Likewise, with security being an existential issue, Macron can leverage this moment to push for broader EU defense autonomy. This aligns with his vision of “strategic sovereignty” where Europe is less dependent on external powers like the U.S.
What About the Rest of Europe?
France stepping up isn’t necessarily good news for all European nations. While some might welcome a more independent European security structure, others will have serious reservations.
Germany’s Dilemma – While Germany is open to discussions, it faces a tough choice – continue relying on U.S. protection under NATO or shift toward a Franco-European deterrence. A Franco-German military alignment would be unprecedented, but Germany remains cautious about fully endorsing a nuclear-backed security strategy.
Eastern Europe’s Concerns – Poland, the Baltic states, and other countries close to Russia have always preferred American guarantees over European ones. France’s nuclear umbrella might not be enough to convince them.
The UK’s Position – Britain, despite its nuclear arsenal, is unlikely to fully integrate into a French-led defense framework. While cooperation may increase, London will prioritize its longstanding security alignment with the U.S.
Smaller European Nations’ Uncertainty – Countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy will have to reassess their strategic alignments. Some might see an opportunity in a European-led security framework, while others will fear that distancing from NATO could make them vulnerable.
Is France Ready for the Burden?
The biggest challenge for France is whether it has the resources to back up its ambitions. While its nuclear arsenal is formidable, it pales in comparison to Russia’s vast stockpile. Moreover, military leadership requires more than just deterrence, it needs a full-fledged security apparatus with conventional forces, intelligence-sharing, and rapid deployment capabilities.
Furthermore, France risks overextending itself. If European allies don’t fully commit to a French-led deterrence, Paris could find itself shouldering a massive burden with little return. Additionally, NATO’s presence in Europe remains strong, and the U.S. is unlikely to fully step away, no matter what Trump says.
The Last Bit
While France’s emergence as Europe’s security leader is a bold and strategic move, its success depends on how other nations respond. If Germany, Italy, and Eastern European nations align with France, we could see a new, more independent European defense structure take shape. But if skepticism prevails, France might find itself leading a security initiative that few truly trust or support.
The world is shifting, and so is Europe’s approach to defense. With Trump’s unpredictability and the possibility of a reduced US role in NATO, European nations are looking inward for security solutions.
A European nuclear deterrent led by France and potentially supported by the UK could mark a significant transformation in how the continent secures itself.
