By: Shreya Dabral, Research Analyst, GSDN

South Asia has never been an example of simple geopolitics, in which the bitterness of history, the hostility of the region, and international strategic interests intersect. The warming of relationships between Pakistan and Bangladesh is one of the more recent changes that are transforming the strategic environment of the region. These two countries, which fought and were bitter foes in the past, linked through culture, language, and geography, and are separated by a bloody past-are starting to consider a path of diplomatic, economic, and security partnership.

This newfound intimacy poses numerous problems to India, which has hitherto enjoyed great leverage in Bangladesh and has a strained but a tactically indispensable relationship with Pakistan. To go with the diplomatic adjustments are regional security ramifications, economic impact and overall Indian orientation to its geopolitical strategy. It is important to understand such developments, drivers of these developments and the possible effects of such developments to assess the strategic posture of India in South Asia.

History: Common Ground to Division

The history of the present geopolitical situation has its origins in South Asia. The division of British India in 1947 gave birth to Pakistan, a country with separated wings (geographically) West Pakistan (modern-day Pakistan) and East Pakistan (modern-day Bangladesh). Since its formation, Pakistan had struggled with integrating East Pakistan politically, economically, and culturally. East Pakistanis believed they had been politically sidelined, exploited economically, and inherently neglected in terms of cultural practices and governance as West Pakistan prevailed within national institutions, commerce and administration.

In 1971, this situation came to a breaking point. The autonomy requested by East Pakistan triggered a military crackdown by West Pakistan that caused many atrocities and humanitarian crisis. Strategic, humanitarian, and political interests made India intervene and thus created Bangladesh. The Bangladesh population was profoundly scarred psychologically by the war with a legacy of mistrust of Pakistan that continues to date.

Bangladesh adopted an Indian-friendly foreign policy to a great extent after independence and began cooperating with India economically and in security matters. Meanwhile, Pakistan was diplomatically isolated in the subcontinent, and it had a limited and mostly ceremonial relationship with Bangladesh. It is against this historical background that India had a long history of influence in Bangladesh, owing to a joint struggle, similarity of culture and strategic interests.

The Political Change of Direction and Foreign Policy Reorganization in Bangladesh

Political change took place in Bangladesh in August 2024. When the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, was ousted after a mix of civil unrest, student movement, and extraneous factors, an interim government was formed under the leadership of Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus which started having an anti-India stance and started gravitating towards China & Pakistan. This was a break of the conventional India-focused foreign policy in Bangladesh.

The strategic pivot in Bangladesh has several reasons behind it:

• Economic Diversification: Bangladesh has also been pursuing a solution to excessive reliance on India in trade and investment. Interaction with Pakistan will provide access to new markets, joint ventures, and export opportunities especially in the textile industry, farm produce and technologies.

• Strategic Autonomy: Bangladesh presents its independence at the regional level, by balancing its relations with India and Pakistan. An attitude like that makes Bangladesh seem less of a satellite of one power, giving it a greater diplomatic advantage.

• Security Concerns: Overlapping areas of common interest in defensive cooperation have been established in counterterrorism, maritime security and calamity control. The willingness to cooperate is demonstrated by the fact that Bangladesh has been part of the military drills organized by Pakistan, such as AMAN-2025.

• Domestic Political Signalling: The new administration wants to demonstrate itself as a decisive force in foreign affairs, exercising agency to its audiences back home and projecting experience abroad.

• Historical and Cultural Interactions: The culture and language that binds Pakistan and Bangladesh together is gradually re-discovered with uneven speed due to the historical wrong and as a new platform to build another partnership.

Strategic Motivation in Pakistan

With its past diplomatic isolation and economic stagnation, Pakistan is particularly happy about the prospect of renewed interaction with Bangladesh:

• Diplomatic Bait: Co-operative Bangladesh would increase the influence of Pakistan in the region, and Islamabad would be able to offset the traditional influence of India in Dhaka.

• Economic Cooperation: Bangladeshi markets and trade access would provide Pakistan, opportunities to augment exports, share investments and strengthen its economic position within South Asia.

• Strategic Signalling: As long as Pakistan balances its strategic interests and can project a vision that involves reconciling the region, it should be perceived as malleable and as reflecting a wish to resolve historical animosities.

• Regional Deals: Greater integration with Bangladesh will open opportunities to do coordinated business with China, which will enhance the strategic position of Pakistan through India.

Economic Cooperation and Implications

Pakistan and Bangladesh are going through nascent economic cooperation:

• Trade Agreements: The two countries have started negotiating to lower trade barriers, consider tariff concessions, and promote joint ventures in the industrial sphere. This may involve joint ventures in textiles, pharmaceuticals and agriculture.

• Investment Opportunities: Pakistan is looking at investing in Bangladeshi industries (especially the energy and infrastructure) which might have been earlier on, attracted Indian investment.

• Dynamics of Regional Markets: Regional level economic initiatives would alter the flow of trade, slightly weakening the old-standing economic advantage of India in Bangladesh. An example is the re-placing of regional supply chains to garments or raw materials with Pakistan, which would impact the market share of India.

• Long-term Economic Realignment: The sustained collaboration can stimulate other area participants to consider multilateral initiatives with Pakistan-Bangladesh, which will form a new economic bloc in the eastern region of South Asia.

Defense and Security Cooperation

The most delicate aspect of the rapprochement between Pakistan and Bangladesh is perhaps defense cooperation:

• Military Exercises: The involvement of Bangladesh in drills organized by Pakistan especially the maritime security exercises show the coordination of operations and common interests.

• Intelligence Sharing: There have been talks of counterterrorism intelligence exchange, which is a reflection of common apprehensions with regard to transnational security threats.

• Strategic Posture: Although not blatant, this type of cooperation will require the recalibration of India in the eastern border and in the Bay of Bengal. Even a restricted version of a joint strategy between Bangladesh and Pakistan will have a shaping impact on the Indian regional strategic decisions.

• Counterterrorism Dynamics: Pakistan has been accused in the past of leveraging regional networks to spread extremism. Further cooperation with Bangladesh may make it difficult to track cross-border terrorist activities even inadvertently, by India.

Diplomatic and Regional Implications

The developing Pakistan-Bangladesh alliance should also be considered in the context of the geopolitics of the region:

• China and its influence: China is a strategic partner to Pakistan, and a potential investor to Bangladesh, meaning that improved Bangladesh-Pakistan relations will advantage China. Planned programs in line with Chinese infrastructure projects have the potential to support a further strategic presence of Beijing in South Asia.

• The Role of the United States: U.S involvement in South Asia, policy changes in relation to Pakistan, Bangladesh and India will determine the future of bilateral relations. A change in American strategic priorities can change the cost-benefit calculus of both Dhaka and Islamabad.

• Regional Forums: Regional blocs like SAARC and BIMSTEC can be used as the platforms of increased Pakistan-Bangladesh collaboration, which can leave India behind unless New Delhi takes the initiative.

• Geopolitical Message: New relationships indicate to the world that old animosity can be put aside in a practical way and the relationships in the South Asian region redefined. India has to read these signals and alter its regional diplomacy.

Implications for India

This changing partnership poses a complex environment to India:

• Strategic Enforcement: Greater cooperation between Pakistan and Bangladesh has the potential to impact the eastern security dynamics of India, thereby putting a strain on strategic choices in the Bay of Bengal and frontier areas.

• Economic Competition: Dislocation of investment and markets out of India by the joint trade and industrial projects would affect the regional economic competition and commercial interests of India.

• Security Dilemmas: Intelligence and maritime coordination between Bangladesh and Pakistan may require re-alignment of the Indian defense planning.

• Diplomatic Constraints: A shift in favour of Pakistan lowers the bargaining power of India in Bangladesh and may lessen its influence in the regional forums and multilateral bargaining.

• Historical Sensitivities: Unresolved issues of the 1971 war, such as unresolved grievances, can have a latent effect on the foreign policy of Bangladesh and this makes the task of India to have a strategic presence in Bangladesh difficult.

Indian Strategic Options

India needs to take a multi-pronged approach to offset such developments:

• Firm Bilateral Relationships: The relationship with Bangladesh should be reinforced through trade, investment, cultural exchange and infrastructure cooperation, which is also imperative to reestablish authority.

• Economic Incentives: There are specific economic packages, joint ventures and technology alliances that can be applied to counter the increasing attractiveness of Pakistan.

• Defense Cooperation: Joint security drills, maritime cooperation, and counterterrorism cooperation will aid in ensuring that India has a strategic advantage.

• Cultural Diplomacy: Education, media and people-to-people exchanges: imports and exports build a sense of goodwill and enhance historical bonds.

• Regional Leadership: Active involvement and membership in SAARC, BIMSTEC and other regional groups will mean that the interest of India is represented and the Bangladesh-Pakistan axis does not turn its back on New Delhi.

• Strategic Communication: The articulation of the vision of regional stability, economic development and security of India will be clear and will help to sway the perceptions of international interests.

Case Studies and Hypothetical Scenarios

• Maritime Security in Bay of Bengal: Imagine that Pakistan and Bangladesh are co-operating in conducting naval patrol. India would require a greater level of surveillance and may even plan with the other regional allies to have free navigation and ensure strategic balance.

• Economic cooperation in Textile: A hypothetical joint venture in the production of garments between Pakistan and Bangladesh may compete directly with the Indian exports, forcing India to innovate or give incentives to keep business.

• Sharing of Intelligence on Counterterrorism: In case Pakistan and Bangladesh liaise on intelligence, India has to come up with similar systems of ensuring that it is in the know on the possible cross border threats.

These situations depict practical challenges India has to look forward to in order to retain security and influence.

Conclusion

The increasing intimacy between Pakistan and Bangladesh is a radical change in the geopolitical situation in South Asia. In the case of India, the consequences are diverse- in security, economic, and diplomatic terms. Although the rapprochement presents possible risks, it also offers an opportunity to India to re-strategize its policy and increase bilateral involvement and re-establish its status as a regional leader.

India can overcome these changes by taking a proactive, subtle, and strategic course of action, including diplomacies, economic incentives, defense partnership, and cultural interaction. The Bangladesh Pakistan axis can redefine the regional dynamics however with the site and proper planning, India can preserve its interests, keep the region stable and remain in an influential position in South Asia.

About the Author

Shreya Dabral is pursuing her Master’s in Mass Communication from Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, New Delhi. She balances her academic journey with active roles in research and digital media. Her research paper on consumer repurchase behaviour in the skincare industry, published in the International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Trends (IJSRET), is a testament to her curiosity, clarity, and commitment to exploring audience-brand dynamics in a digital age.

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