By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN
In the 1978 movie “Snake in the Eagle’s Shadow”, largely unaware to the opponents of the protagonist, secretly the actor Jackie Chan is being trained in martial arts. But the truth gets revealed eventually. Lord Buddha had remarked “Three things cannot be long hidden: the Sun, the Moon and the Truth”.
After four Pakistan-armed and trained terrorists killed 26 male tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir in India on April 22, 2025, it was clear that India would strike back militarily and this time, unlike the previous Indian responses to Pakistan’s terrorists attacks in India, the Indian response would be much harder.
With each passing day after the Pahalgam terrorist attack as the blood of 1.46 billion Indian citizens was boiling, China too was sensing that this time Pakistan had bitten more than it could chew and decided to step out of Pakistan’s shadow, as till this period China had not publicly supported Pakistan militarily, though it was pretty evident that China being in Pakistan’s shadow, in the context of the 78-year old India-Pakistan tensions, was providing military help.
On April 27, 2025, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a telephonic call with the Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar communicated that China is Pakistan’s ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner and will safeguard Pakistan’s sovereignty and security.
Signalling that Pakistan would be provided with all military help from China, the next few days saw frenzied military activities between the two nations.
Pakistan was the first Muslim-majority nation and the third non-communist country to recognize China. In 1950, the two nations established diplomatic relations. In 1963, both the nations signed a boundary agreement that saw Pakistan ceding a portion of the Karakoram region called the Shaksgam Valley, which became the foundation for the two nation’s stable geopolitical relationship.
While in the 1965 India-Pakistan War, China supplied Pakistan military equipment worth US$ 250 million, but it never publicly acknowledged doing so. In the run-up to the 1971 India-Pakistan War, despite the US President Richard Nixon and his National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, pressurising China to open a second front on India in case the two nations were go to war, China did not agree.
In 1986 China and Pakistan signed the nuclear cooperation agreement which catapulted Pakistan’s nuclear programme which had been moving slowly till then. This helped Pakistan in carrying out its first nuclear test on May 28, 1998 in the Chagai Hills of its Balochistan province, few days after India carried out its second nuclear test on May 11, 1998.
But after China became the world’s third largest economy in 2007, its military aspirations started increasing with its eyes now set firmly on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, in addition to Taiwan and few other military objectives.
Two events in the times ahead brought China and Pakistan in a tight embrace. One, Xi Jinping becoming the President of China in 2013. Two, India’s abrogation of Article 370 and 35A.
China-Pakistan relations after Xi Jinping becoming the Chinese President in 2013
To circumvent the “Malacca Dilemma” that bothered China for decades, Xi Jinping after becoming China’s President for the first time on March 14, 2013, a few months later, proposed the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) of which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project. Included in the CPEC is the Gwadar-Xinjiang Corridor which is a 3000-kilometer road linking China’s Xinjiang region to the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which would obviate China’s “Malacca Dilemma”.
For China, the Gwadar-Xinjiang Corridor is the jugular vein in case the Malacca Strait was to be ever blocked by the Indian Navy or the US Navy.
On April 20, 2015 Xi Jinping visited Pakistan on his first state visit as the President of China.
Before embarking on the two-day visit to Pakistan, Xi Jinping authored an op-ed in Pakistan’s Daily Times titled “Pak-China Dosti Zindabad” (Long Live the Pakistan-China Friendship), in which he wrote that “I feel as if I am going to visit the home of my own Brother” and also wrote that “the friendship between the two nations was higher than mountains, deeper than oceans and sweeter than honey”.
On April 20, 2015, Pakistan and China signed an agreement to commence work on CPEC, on infrastructure projects worth US$ 45.6 billion during Xi Jinping’s maiden state visit to Pakistan, setting the foundation for a strong and robust Pakistani-Chinese friendship with underlying military overtones, which China would many times call this relation with Pakistan as “Iron Brothers” and “All Weather Friends”.
China-Pakistan’s relations post-India’s abrogation of Article 370 and 35A
On August 05, 2019 after India had abrogated Article 370 & 35A of the Constitution that related to Jammu & Kashmir, two countries did not take it lying down and as time would reveal these two countries – China & Pakistan, clearly irked by India’s move, would step up pressure on India in due course and move in a tighter embrace with each other.
Four days later on August 09, 2019 Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan dashed in a sudden two-day visit to China. In back-to-back meetings with the top Chinese leadership spread over two days on August 09-10, 2019, Pakistan and China decided that a strong response would be given to India’s move of abrogation of the two articles.
On August 11, 2019 the Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr. S Jaishankar visited China to explain the abrogation of the two contentious articles of the Constitution that were for long perceived as the biggest hinderance in the growth and security of Jammu & Kashmir by an overwhelming majority of Indian citizens. But China had already made up its mind during its meetings with Shah Mehmood Qureshi, on the previous two days.
Pakistan eventually tasked its terrorists operating in Jammu & Kashmir since 1989 when terrorism broke out in India’s northern most state (now a Union Territory), and had been largely confined to the North of Pir Panjal Range (NPPR) which includes the Kashmir Valley, to shift their operations to the South of Pir Panjal Range (SPPR) which includes Jammu region.
But this wasn’t as easy as it seemed due to the heavy deployment of the Indian security forces on both the sides of the Pir Panjal Range, the mountainous range that roughly separates the Kashmir Valley from the Jammu region.
It was here that China came to the aid of its all-weather ally. Now, was the litmus test of China to show Pakistan that it meant each word that Xi Jinping had written in his op-ed of April 2015.
Just as all seemed well between China and India on the face of it, orders were given by the Central Military Commission (CMC) to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to plan an incursion in eastern Ladakh of India.
In early-April 2020, as the snow started melting in the higher reaches, the PLA started intruding in eastern Ladakh and the stand-off began between the PLA and the Indian Army that lasted over four years and included the bloody Galwan Valley Clash of June 15, 2020 which saw 20 soldiers of the Indian Army killed in action.
This resulted in the Indian Army redeploying its troops and about two divisions worth were moved from the Jammu region to eastern Ladakh to be deployed on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) opposite China.
This was exactly what Pakistan needed. With a thinner Indian security forces deployment in the Jammu region, Pakistan stepped up terrorism in the Jammu region on the SPPR since early-2024. The relatively quiet Jammu region has become as volatile as the Kashmir Valley.
The year 2021 saw two important military developments between China and Pakistan. One, Pakistan Army Officers started being posted to the Western Theatre Command of China. Two, a direct Optical Fibre Cable was laid between the Western Theatre Command of China in Chengdu and the General Headquarters (GHQ) of the Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi for swift and uninterrupted communications.
The military cooperation between China and Pakistan intensified since 2019, particularly in terms of air force capabilities and increased conduct of joint military exercises to include all six domains of modern warfare – land, sea, air, cyber, electromagnetic spectrum and space.
The Era 2016-2024
Though before 2016, India had carried out cross-border raids across the Line of Control (LOC) in POJK, but they were confidential and never discussed in the public domain.
But, the two cross-border raids termed as Surgical Strikes in 2016 and 2019 by India, inside POJK were announced by India after their successful conduct. In response to the Pakistani terrorists attacking an Indian Army camp in Uri, Jammu & Kashmir on September 18, 2016, that resulted in 19 soldiers being killed in action, the Indian Army on September 29, 2016 crossed the LOC and killed 40 Pakistani terrorists in POJK.
On February 14, 2019 a Pakistan-trained suicide bomber attacked the convoy of the Central Reserve Police Force in Lethapora in Pulwama district, Jammu & Kashmir that resulted in the death of 40 soldiers. In the wee hours of February 26, 2019, the Indian Air Force struck in Balakot, POJK and killed 350 Pakistani terrorists.
The next day, on February 27, 2019 Pakistan retaliated with an air operation named Operation Swift Retort. In this operation, Pakistan used fighter aircrafts that included Dassault Mirage-IIIDA, Dassault Mirage-VPA armed with H-4 SOW and JF-17 Thunders armed with Mk 83 REKs, with Escort and EW support being rendered by F-16, Falcon DA-20EW/ECM/ESM and Saab 2000 Erieye AEW&C fighter aircrafts.
For the first time the Chinese JF-17 fighter aircrafts or for that matter, any Chinese weapon system was used in a military operation by Pakistan against India overtly.
During the period 2009-14, Pakistan imported 51% of its defence requirements from China which increased to 73% in the duration 2015-19. But after Operation Swift Retort in 2019, Pakistan imported 81% of its weapon systems from China, with Netherlands contributing 5.5% and Turkey 3.8%.
During the period 2020-24, China generously gave Pakistan high-value defence systems that included 896 FN-6 portable air defence systems, 200 LY-80 medium-range SAMs, 30 CM-401 supersonic anti-ship missiles, 300 PL-12 and 420 PL-5E air-to-air missiles to arm the JF-17 fleet. Also given in this duration was 25 J-10C multirole fighters and 24 JF-17 Block-3 fighters to bolster the Pakistani air power.
For a cash-strapped Pakistan, certainly purchasing this huge bouquet of weapon systems from China would have been impossible. China was in no need of money, as it has deep pockets.
What China needed was a testbed for checking the efficacy of its weapon systems which till Operation Swift Retort in 2019 had been touted as ineffective and un-battle worthy. But Operation Swift Retort convinced China of the efficacy of their Military Industrial Complex, and hence their largesse to Pakistan.
China decided to gamble big time on Pakistan with the Made in China weapon systems. This Chinese Great Gamble was done with had the first military target of China in mind – Taiwan!
On February 03, 2023, William Burns, the Director of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), USA officially tasked with gathering, processing and analysing national security information from around the world, said in a statement that USA and China will go to war over Taiwan in 2027.
The next year, on March 21, 2024 Admiral John Aquilino, the Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command testified to the US House Armed Services Committee that China was on track to be ready for the invasion of Taiwan in 2027. The Admiral further added that China has increased its defence budget by over 16% in recent years to more than US$ 223 billion. Further, he went on to say that in the three years of him assuming command, the PLA has added more than 400 fighter aircrafts and 20 major warships.
And this year, on May 31, 2025, Pete Hegseth, the US Defence Secretary warned that China is actively training to invade Taiwan.
The Chinese weapon systems that Pakistan was going to use against India till 2027, would be in-effect testing for China under actual combat conditions.
With the experience of the 2016 and 2019 Surgical Strikes fresh in mind, both China and Pakistan knew with certainty that India would militarily avenge the Pahalgam terrorist attack.
A day after the Chinese Foreign Minister had the telephonic call with the Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister on April 27, 2025, China sent a large consignment of PL-15 missiles to Pakistan 0n April 28, 2025. Till this time, China had not given the advanced PL-15 missiles to any nation and were kept for its own use. It used to sell only the PL-15E missiles which is the export and watered-down version of the PL-15 missiles.
But as an exception, Pakistan was given the PL-15 missiles with the same aim in mind – testing under actual combat conditions.
China also gave uninterrupted utilisation of its BeiDou satellite constellation and its specialised Yaogan satellite. All these were networked in Pakistan’s Link-17 software for Multi-Domain Operations (MDO).
MDO is the digital ecosystem comprising satellites, all airborne and ground assets for quick and comprehensive situational awareness, electronic intelligence and signal intelligence with the final aim to reduce the time for Kill Chain.
China was keenly watching and integrating itself with every military move of Pakistan, as at stake was its multi-billion-dollar Military Industrial Complex. China was pretty sure of India’s strike and what better opportunity to test its MDO than in actual combat conditions.
China is the only nation in the world which in 2014 announced in its military strategy, the concept of Joint Integrated Operations that it is ready to fight in all six domains of modern warfare – land, sea, air, cyber, electromagnetic spectrum and space. In other words, it is called the Multi-Domain Operations.
Interestingly, the USA had propounded the Full Spectrum Operations Doctrine in 2001 which is quintessentially MDO. But no nation till date including USA, with the sole exception of China have declared their combat readiness in MDO.
China needed the testing of the MDO in actual combat conditions.
The India-Pakistan Conflict 2025, provided the opportunity that China had been so desperately waiting for in the run-up to its war for Taiwan in 2027.
India-Pakistan Conflict 2025
India and Pakistan’s 88-hour India-Pakistan Conflict that begin at 0105 hours on May 07, 2025 and ended at 1700 hours on May 10, 2025, called Operation Sindoor by India and Operation Bunyan um-Marsoos by Pakistan has been elaborately covered in a podcast by the author.
One important issue of the India-Pakistan Conflict 2025 that merits mentioning here is that the bulk of the Pakistani weaponry used against India was of Chinese origin. And it was those weapon systems that China had supplied Pakistan in the duration 2020-2024, the details of which have been mentioned earlier in the article.
While yet again, India scored a clear military victory over Pakistan in this military duel too, as earlier in 1947-49, 1965, 1971 and 1999, but the difference in the earlier four military confrontations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours of South Asia is that these four wars had negligible Chinese weapon systems.
But after the Kargil War of 1999, there has been an upswing in the sale of Chinese weapon systems to Pakistan. And ever since India has started publicising the surgical strikes on Pakistan commencing with the Uri surgical strike in 2016, the Chinese weapon systems that the Pakistan military is using in abundance, has come under extensive international glare.
And this has given China the perfect platform to evaluate the performance of its weapon systems in actual combat scenario, overcoming the much-discussed weakness of Chinese weapon systems not being used/tested in actual combat as China has not fought a war after its last war with Vietnam in 1979.
The US weapon systems had always an advantage over Chinese, as USA has taken part in almost every war/conflict the world has seen since the end of the World War II.
But the Balakot surgical strike and the India-Pakistan Conflict 2025 has placed the performance of the Chinese weapon systems in the open.
What next?
As the induction of the Chinese weapon systems has increased in the Pakistan military after 1999 and with the ascendancy of the Xi Jinping as China’s President in 2013, Pakistan’s big terror attacks have been happening with increased ferocity at regular intervals in India – Uri in 2016, Pulwama in 2019 and Pahalgam in 2025.
And in turn, India’s military responses have been getting tougher – Uri in 2016, Balakot in 2019 and Operation Sindoor in 2025.
In all the retaliation and counter-retaliation by India & Pakistan, China is testing its weapon systems in actual combat scenario.
The next big tranche of the Chinese weapon systems to Pakistan is to be supplied by end-August 2025 which will include HQ-19 long-range air defence missile system with combat range of 1000 kilometres, Super Y-20 AWACS with detection capabilities upto 10,000 kilometres, PL-21 ultra-long-range air-to-air missiles with a range of 300 kilometers and 40 J-35A fifth-generation fighter aircrafts with combat range between 1200-1500 kilometers.
After Pakistan receives this largesse of Chinese weapons systems and after it has trained its personnel on them, will it launch the next big terrorist attack on India.
China will then yet again get to test its latest bouquet of weapon systems in actual combat.
For, it will prove to be very helpful for China for its first military target which is Taiwan, which it is go to war for in 2027.
