By: Shivangee Bhattacharya, Research Analyst, GSDN

In a recent meeting of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Astana in 2024, the organization comprised countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, China, and Russia. From India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was supposed to attend the meeting on July 3^rd and 4th, but the External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar represented India. In the span of that week, PM Modi decided to visit Russia on July 8^–9^t, 2024.

This decision speculated on the possibilities of India’s withdrawal from the SCO. The decision hasn’t been taken yet, but analysing the sour relations with China, BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) has created an atmosphere of tension between China and India. Now, these speculations flared up after seeing China as the leader of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, with this leadership of China and participants in the organization being part of BRI. Also, Sino-Pakistan relations and CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) play a role in India losing interest in the organization.

Despite these disparities, why did India choose to join the organization in the first place? India, being the only fully democratic country in the organization, has significantly denied the initiative taken by China in BRI. Among the neocolonial countries, India was the only one who decided to give a thumbs up to the China-led project.

India’s past comes from the decolonization era. After independence, India decided to be non-aligned with any superpower that existed at that time. The US was leading the world as the hegemon and creating a new global era. India’s foreign policy since independence has been to be neutral and non-aligned. With the decision to join SCO, India thought that aligning with the non-western organization could help them establish international relationships, and this organization could also help them strengthen relations with Central Asia.

In the famous quote where it was mentioned that “keep your friends close and enemies closer,” participation was not restricted because of China. Unfortunately, it was observed that the organization wasn’t giving any importance to Indian foreign policy. The participation of the largest population and economy elevated the international legitimacy of SCO in the world. The welcome of Iran to the SCO marked the organization being perceived as an anti-Western autocracy.

At the start of joining SCO, this decision was merely related to regional security; now it has become more of a rivalry between China and Russia, for instance, disapproval of the title “Indo-Pacific” rather prefers calling it “Asia-Pacific”. The promises seem shallow, and agendas talking about mutual trust and benefit seem hollow for India because of Chinese military encroachment in India.

India’s initiative to join the organization is to strengthen its bilateral relations between India and Central Asia, overlooking its sour relations with Pakistan and China. Within the organization, border disputes have hampered bilateral relations since 2021. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and G20 summits have witnessed the interaction between the countries in 2023. Though despite the disputes between China and India, they stood up for multilevel relations and worked together on issues like climate change and the SDGs. Since 2017, relations between India and China have shrunk; differences have increased.

To cement relations between Central Asia and India, the countries have collaborated on the “Connect Central Asia” policy since 2012, followed by the “Act East Policy” in 2014. To flourish regional development, peace, and prosperity, the India and Central Asia summit, which happened in 2022.

The challenges persisted even after these negotiations and summits, including those related to security and connectivity. India is not a part of the BRI; the decision is related to maintaining sovereignty as the route of the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) encompasses the POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir). The grouping stands out for “extremism, terrorism, and being the victim of terrorist attacks, which are state-sponsored by Pakistan. India stands out for acknowledging the need to counter the issue of terrorism. The recent Reasi attack raged India with tension as the SCO stood inefficient to counter the regional attacks of terrorism.

India’s motto of having multilateral relations with countries can be seen as India being a part of the G20 and QUAD. The Prime Minister’s absence from the recent summit of the SCO has raised concerns among the participating countries. In the year 2021, the PM joined the meeting virtually. He did participate in 2022 and held the summit virtually in 2023. In the current times, the PM of India skipped the meeting in 2024. This signifies that Indo-Pakistan and Indo-Sino border disputes are not just mere issues; the issues are way beyond the border disputes. The inconsistency of India’s participation indicates the hinderance of bilateral relations and active participation in regional meetings.

Moreover, SCO has benefited India in several areas, like establishing trade relations and vital relations with the countries of South Asia. Russia being present in the organization, which is the largest arm supplier to India, has helped in continuing relations. Despite the fact that SCO has provided a platform for trade engagement, it has failed to provide security to India in any given manner. If analysed, the organization has lost its relevance with respect to India, and looking at the current geopolitical situation in India, SCO is not benefiting India much.

For the balance of power, India is trying to maintain its relations with China’s rivals, Russia and the US. It is critical to analyse how long India will be able to maintain these relations. A recent visit to Moscow by PM Modi signified his efforts to maintain relations with Russia. It is early to say and comment about India’s withdrawal from the organization, but looking at the recent turn of events, it is giving the notion that India is giving a cold shoulder to the SCO. The reason for this behaviour can be traced back to border disputes and a lack of security insurance from the organization.

India is a growing economy, and with the largest population in the world, its growing importance in the world is increasing significantly. India’s foreign policy has changed over the years, and now it is making a significant mark through its participation in summits held. Being part of SCO, it is not getting assurance related to its agendas and growth.