By: Ayush Shankar

In the coronary heart of South America, where emerald rainforests hug the amazing Orinoco River, a state pulsed with possibility. Venezuela, a land blessed with fantastic oil reserves, dreamt of prosperity. It changed into the 1920s, and the whole world turned crazy about finding and using a treasured aid called black gold. Venezuela, standing on the edge of a destiny formed through its wealthy petroleum sources, changed into keen to make its mark on the worldwide degree.

Venezuela’s preliminary triumphs within the international oil market had been excellent and garnered substantial popularity internationally. During the early twentieth century, Venezuela emerged as one of the leading producers and exporters of oil, which performed a pivotal position in shaping its economy and political panorama. The discovery of oil within the Maracaibo Basin in 1914 marked a turning point for Venezuela. Venezuela quickly found out the giant ability of its oil assets and capitalized on it. The oil industry became the backbone of Venezuela’s economy and the fast upward push within the international oil marketplace brought about a period of economic prosperity and development.  Venezuela’s geopolitical impact grew as it became a key participant in worldwide oil politics.

The plentiful supply of oil in Venezuela had both positive and bad results on the country’s political panorama, shaping its future with a complex interplay of prosperity and demanding situations. Venezuela’s identity as a petrostate has been characterized by prosperity and lots, but complexities have arisen, leaving an enduring imprint on the country’s destiny.

The Rise of Venezuela as a Petrostate

Venezuela’s emergence as an oil powerhouse began with the discovery of oil in the Maracaibo Basin in the 1920s. This discovery caused a widespread monetary effect, with annual oil manufacturing exploding from just over one million barrels to 137 million by way of 1929, making Venezuela the second-largest oil manufacturer after the USA. In 1929, Venezuela installed its first national oil corporation, the Venezuelan Petroleum Corporation (Venezolana de Petróleos or PDVSA), which helped the country’s control over oil and resources. Venezuela’s rise as a significant participant in the international oil marketplace changed into, in addition, solidified when it joined the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960, along with other primary oil-producing nations.

Venezuela’s economic system has been closely reliant on oil production, which money owed for 95% of its exports and 25% of its GDP. The country’s oil wealth has allowed it to fund predominant infrastructure upgrades and social programs. During the duration from 2006 to the primary half of 2014, high oil prices furnished a boon to the Venezuelan economic system, permitting it to wield political energy. Venezuela’s plentiful oil reserves have played a transformative position in the development of its infrastructure and have caused intervals of prosperity and stability. This wealth has enabled Venezuela to invest in numerous sectors, which include transportation, electricity, and telecommunications (Villarroel et al., 2013). During durations of excessive oil costs, Venezuela experienced monetary prosperity, which allowed for huge investments in infrastructure.

Challenges and Signs of Decline

Oil’s allure is normal for any nation. In Venezuela’s case, it converted the kingdom from an agrarian society to a rich oil massive. However, this sudden wealth masked a risky fashion: the overlook of different sectors. Agriculture, production, and provider industries withered below the shadow of oil’s smooth cash. This “Dutch Disease” phenomenon noticed skilled labour migrate towards oil, similarly hollowing out other sectors and creating an economic system dangerously exposed to the whims of the global oil market. The symptoms of overdependence have been obtrusive. Government budgets became almost reliant on oil sales, neglecting funding in important areas like infrastructure and schooling. This lack of diversification left Venezuela at risk of any fluctuations in oil expenses, rendering the complete economy hostage to a single commodity.

Venezuela’s tragic narrative unfolds as a cautionary tale of the risks posed by unchecked oil wealth, epitomized by using the national oil agency, PDVSA. Initially a supply of charm, this immense wealth has become a breeding ground for corruption and electricity struggles, resulting in catastrophic outcomes. The authorities’ mismanagement and political interference caused a drastic 43.6% decline in oil manufacturing from 2015 to 2018, marking a pivotal moment whilst PDVSA fell below army manipulation, eroding democratic principles.

Under the Maduro regime, a violent campaign towards the Ministry of Petroleum and PDVSA in 2014 aimed to consolidate control, causing an exodus of leaders and exacerbating the institutional void. Maduro’s abandonment of Chavez’s “Full Sovereignty Oil Policy” in 2018, choosing a controversial financial “surprise package,” blanketed deregulation, devaluation, hard work gain elimination, and privatization, essentially changing Venezuela’s oil coverage. The prioritization of government hobbies over public welfare induced hyperinflation and shortages, fostering discontent and political instability. Venezuela’s tragic transformation underscores the precarious link between useful resource dependence and political turmoil within the heart of South America.

Oil, by means of its very nature, is a risky commodity. Price fluctuations are inevitable, and Venezuela’s financial system has become ill-geared to deal with them. When oil charges plummeted in 2014, the results were devastating. Government sales plunged, main to crippling debt and the inability to import critical items, along with food and medicine. Hyperinflation spiraled , mismanagement, eroding shopping power, and plunging hundreds of thousands into poverty. The collapse of the oil industry has brought about excessive monetary instability, with hyperinflation attaining 189 % in 2015 and 9,598% in 2019. Oil sales were diverted to repay loans from China, impacting the economy. Venezuela, dealing with economic misery, has closely borrowed from China and Russia, burdening future generations with considerable debt. This reliance compromised sovereignty and exposed vulnerability to outside pressures, posing demanding situations to the nation’s autonomy.

Descent into Crisis

The refugee disaster in Venezuela, marked by an exodus of over 7.72 million people as of August 2023, is not only the largest-ever refugee disaster in Latin America, however additionally one of the largest in the world. This crisis is a direct end result of the financial decline in Venezuela, which has had intense humanitarian results. Shortages of fundamental requirements, healthcare demanding situations, and mass emigration have become regular. Political unrest, monetary decline, and acute shortages of essential sources which include food, medicine, and strength had been the principal drivers of these demanding situations. The scenario was in addition complicated by using a multi-year management battle between Nicolás Maduro, who controversially gained the election in May 2018, and Juan Guaidó, who declared himself president in January 2019. While Guaidó acquired recognition from the USA and over 50 different governments globally, Maduro maintained assistance from China, Russia, several other countries, and the Venezuelan military. This battle has led tens of millions of Venezuelans to leave the country in the lookout for higher dwelling situations and work possibilities.

Currently, there are over 7.7 million Venezuelans living outside the country, contributing to protests and violence inside Venezuela itself. Around 19 million human beings, or 66 % of the populace, require humanitarian help in the country. However, the Humanitarian Response Plan is aimed at helping only 2.5 million humans, leaving a substantial hole in meeting the wishes of the population. This pervasive sense of country-wide lack of confidence is further irritated by the collapse of Venezuela as a petrostate, which has strained its diplomatic relationships across the world. Former allies inclusive of Colombia, Brazil, and Guyana are now grappling with an influx of Venezuelan refugees as they are trying to find asylum due to the financially demanding situations of their home country. The United States, a major oil importer from Venezuela, has imposed sanctions that have further remoted Venezuela on the worldwide level. While the U.S. has pledged US$ 376 million in humanitarian aid, its role in the crisis has come under scrutiny.

Despite the global strain, Nicolás Maduro has managed to strengthen his grip on power in Venezuela through economic reforms inclusive of losing zeros from the bolivar and embracing dollar transactions. Although this began with stabilized hyperinflation, the country’s monetary state of affairs remains fragile. On the political front, international guidance for Juan Guaidó has waned, with the Biden management withdrawing recognition. Maduro’s global status has advanced as communication reopens and he gains assistance from newly elected leaders in neighboring nations. However, the opposition faces internal struggles with plans to contest the 2024 election. Migration, which had slowed in the course of the pandemic, is yet again on the rise, posing similar challenges. Record numbers of Venezuelans are attempting perilous journeys, reflecting the continuing crisis inside the area.

Conclusion

In the vibrant tapestry of nations, Venezuela’s story unfolds like a gripping novel, once a shining example of petrostate success, now a poignant cautionary tale echoing across the worldwide level. Picture a state that danced to the rhythm of prosperity, most effective to find itself entangled inside the sombre chords of disaster. Venezuela, a person in this narrative, becomes a dwelling embodiment of the perils tied to depending too heavily on a solitary useful resource. As oil production in Venezuela soared to its top, the state’s monetary energy teetered on the brink, liable to the whims of fluctuating oil fees. The mismanagement of treasured oil sales forged a shadow over the once-thriving panorama, ushering in a generation of heart-wrenching economic downturn, hyperinflation, and enormous struggles for its resilient human beings. This isn’t always only a story of economics and politics; it’s a human drama gambling out on a grand scale. Families navigating the tumult of hyperinflation, and groups grappling with the impact of unchecked populism — those are the faces of Venezuela’s narrative. Yet, amid those challenges, there are sparkles of desire, moments in which the indomitable spirit of the people sparks an ability for financial revival.

The future of Venezuela hangs in the balance, a narrative with feasible outcomes — a delicate recovery constructed on the pillars of proper governance and balance or the ominous prospect of deeper crises, social unrest, and mass migration. It’s a tale that transcends borders, a human experience hindered with instructions for nations international, as they too navigate the sensitive dance between aid dependency and sustainable growth. The world watches, now not simply observers of a country’s warfare, but as contributors in a shared human adventure, waiting to see if Venezuela will rewrite its destiny or succumb to the echoes of its beyond.

By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

As Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (POJK) suffers from gross under-development and impoverishment, the Government of Pakistan splurged millions of dollars in observing Kashmir Solidarity Day (KSD) on February 05, 2024 regularly since 1991 when it was observed for the first time on the proposal by Qazi Hussain Ahmad of the Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan in 1990.

Nawaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan gave its approval after he came to power with the of support of the Jamaat in 1990 and since 1991, KSD is being observed regularly in Pakistan on 05 February each year.

Though the Government of Pakistan leaves no stone unturned in spending millions of dollars to celebrate KSD to showcase it as an important event, the crude fact remains that POJK has remained underdeveloped since Pakistan illegally captured it from India in 1948. The residents of POJK are in abject poverty and basics like water and electricity comes for only few hours a day. There are no good restaurants and movie halls in POJK and the residents of POJK are devoid of a good quality life.

On the other hand, the residents of the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir are enjoying and living a good quality of life with movie halls fully functional in the entire Jammu & Kashmir and restaurants open till wee hours of the morning. With a record over 20 million tourists visiting the Kashmir Valley in 2023, the residents of Jammu & Kashmir are reaping rich dividends after the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A On August 05, 2019.

Hence it is but obvious that the residents of POJK are unhappy when they see the good quality of life across the Line of Control (LOC) in Jammu & Kashmir and curse the day Pakistan illegally occupied their territories. No wonder that on 05 February each year thousands of residents of POJK observe Peoples Right Day (PRD) to protest against the illegal occupation of Pakistan of POJK and ask for merger with India. However, the Pakistan Army using ruthless measures, silences these peaceful residents observing the PRD and in the round-up to 05 February each year, thousands of residents of POJK are either jailed or put under house arrest to prevent them from taking part in PRD.

The day isn’t far when the PRD movement in POJK will become so large that Pakistan will find it hard to supress this movement, eventually leading to POJK becoming part of India again

By: Darshan Gajjar, Research Analyst, GSDN

“The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.” ~ Samuel P. Huntington

In the aftermath of Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, followed by Israel’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Gaza, the Middle Eastern region was thrust into a long-standing conflict that is now spilling beyond the region with global ramifications. With civilians injured and killed by the attack in Gaza, what followed was the collective condemnation of the actions Israel took by Islamic countries and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

Amid all of this churn, a surprising event took place near the Iran-Pakistan border, with both countries accusing each other of harbouring terrorists and striking each other. Let us look into that particular event and how it can have broader implications in the region.

Iran Strikes Jaish Al-Adl (JAA)

On January 16, 2024, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carried out missile and drone strikes in a village in the Balochistan province of Pakistan. The IRGC claimed to have targeted Jaish al-Adl, or “army of justice,” which is an ethnic Baloch Sunni Muslim group that has, in the past, carried out terror attacks inside Iran.

The group Jaish Al-Adl, a Sunni Islamic militant group based in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province, is considered to be a successor to the terror group Jundallah. Jundallah was dismantled after its founder, Abdolmalek Rigi, was executed by the Iranian government in 2010.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a press release, warned Iran of serious consequences. It says, “Pakistan strongly condemns the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran and the strike inside Pakistani territory, which resulted in the death of two innocent children while injuring three girls. This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences.”

Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar- Pakistan Strikes Back

It did not take long for Pakistan to retaliate against these strikes, which it claimed were a violation of its sovereignty. While diplomatically it lodged a strong protest with the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tehran, militarily it carried out several strikes in Iran’s south-eastern Sistan-Baluchestan province under what it called Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar. The BBC reported that this attack by Pakistan marked “the first external land attack on Iran since Saddam Hussein’s forces invaded in the 1980s.”

Along with targeting the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), Pakistan said in a statement that these strikes, which were carried out with drones, rockets, and long-range missiles with targeted precision, also pestered Pakistani-origin terrorists operating from inside Iran who referred to themselves as ‘Sarmachars’. A total of nine people, including civilians, succumbed to these strikes by Pakistan. It is somewhat ironic that Pakistan, an epicentre of terrorism in the region, which is widely known for harbouring terrorists and terror organisations, is attacking another sovereign country, claiming to fight terrorists.

Pakistan and Iran De-escalating

After nearly destroying each other’s sovereignty, both countries eventually decided, with mutual respect, to de-escalate the situation. Pakistani and Iranian Foreign Ministers, Mr. Jalil Abbas Jilani and Mr. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, respectively, agreed in a telephonic conversation to de-escalate the situation. They further call for the strengthening of working-level cooperation and close coordination on counter-terrorism and other aspects of mutual concern.

The meeting between the caretaker PM of Pakistan, Mr. Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, and Iranian Foreign Minister, Mr. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, on the same day when Iran carried out strikes in Pakistan, is also believed to have facilitated a room for a dialogue and overall de-escalation of the situation.

Clash of Civilizations and Future of Pakistan-Iran Relations

Historically, both Iran and Pakistan have maintained a cordial relationship amid the cold war, with both countries even cooperating with the USA as members of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO). However, in 1979, after the ouster of the Shah of Iran due to the Islamic Revolution, bilateral relations strained, causing divergence between them. Although Pakistan claimed to be neutral during the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), it leaned towards Iraq, further causing tensions with Iran.

In the post-Cold War era, when there was a reshaping of the world order, many countries, including Iran and Pakistan, took major shifts in their policies, especially when it came to economic trade and globalisation. In 2004, both countries even signed a Preferential Trade Agreement which became operational in September 2006. However, much of the potential of such a trade arrangement is yet to be utilised since annual bilateral trade as of 2023 is only around $2 billion.

Despite previous bitterness between them, the status quo has been maintained in the bilateral relationship, with no major occurrence of skirmishes between the two countries. What happened suddenly? Why did Iran feel that it needed to attack Pakistan? Let us see if Huntigton’s hypothesis of the Clash of Civilizations can help us understand the current situation.

In the summer of 1993, American political scientist, adviser, and academic Samuel P. Huntigton wrote his famous essay in Foreign Affairs Magazine on “the clash of civilizations”, in which he argued that the future of conflict will lie in the cultural fault lines. He stresses, “the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. The principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”

In the last few weeks, we have witnessed the manifestation of this clash of civilizations when the Shia majority Islamic country carrying out offensive strikes against a nuclear armed Sunni majority Islamic country. Additionally, the cultural differences between Pakistan’s Punjabi ruling elite and tribal ethnic Balochi people further aggravated the instability of the region. It is also important to note that cultural reasons alone are not sufficient for the clashes between civilizations; they have to be coupled with geopolitical reasons. Now let us explore how the geopolitics of the Middle East is creating chaos in the adjacent regions.

The Middle Eastern Spillover

While the events look like they are not directly linked to the situation in the Middle East, they are perceived as a spillover of the situation in Gaza. The strategic isolation of Iran, especially in the aftermath of Iran’s support for Hamas and other members of the Axis of Resistance, led Iran to be more belligerent, making kinetic escalation not only a means of ultimate deterrence but also a tool of power projection. Apart from targeting terror camps, Iran’s strikes on Pakistan also provide testament to Iran’s offensive missile-strike capabilities.

The USA, on the other hand, is doing its best to portray Iran as the main perpetrator behind the chaos in the region. Recently, on January 28, 2024, a deadly drone attack in northeast Jordan near the Syrian border resulted in the unfortunate demise of three US service members in addition to at least 34 others being wounded. Although Iran denied having any involvement with the attack, the US believed it to be carried out by the Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq. Some US senators even went further, suggesting bombing Iran for these actions. In retaliation for this attack, the US hits hard at militias in Iraq and Syria.

Overall, the situation is grim in the region, and any misadventure by any concerned state or non-state actor can result in a profound catastrophe with global implications.

Way Forward and Path to Peace

In the Middle East, which is perhaps alien to the concept of peace, once the return of hostages by Israel has been secured, the solution to long-term conflict lies in the two-state solution and subsequent recognition of the state of Palestine by global powers. Israel can eradicate Hamas, but if it does not allow a legitimate Palestinian state to exist as a sovereign country, many terror organisations will take birth from the inherent feeling of relative deprivation. India’s former Permanent Representative to the United Nations and the first Indian Representative to the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, Mr. T.S. Tirumurti, rightly remarked, “The two-State solution alone can bring peace. A one State solution is a no-State non-solution.”

Coming back to the situation in Pakistan, the larger problem lies in Pakistan’s, and to an extent Iran’s, oppression of Baloch civilians, which morphed into a popular discontent against the state apparatus, which in turn caused insurgency in the region. For long-term peace, both Iran and Pakistan have to cooperate on resolving the issue of Balochistan, which can start with giving Baloch people more autonomy, if not full sovereignty, over their own land. While it is imperative to fight all forms of terrorism, suppression of political dissent will only lead to more dissent. Further, Iran must ensure not to expand existing conflict to an extent that can invite retaliatory destruction.

By: Harshit Tokas, Research Analyst, GSDN

United Nations in a report recently has issued a warning regarding the resurgence of Al-Qaida in Afghanistan, indicating the establishment of eight new training camps in areas under Taliban control. This resurgence suggests a growing collaboration between Al-Qaida and anti-Pakistan militants, potentially leading to cross-border attacks.

The report, released by the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, sheds light on the alarming development of Al-Qaida camps in Afghanistan’s Kunar province. These camps are reportedly conducting training for suicide bombers, with the aim of supporting operations carried out by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a terrorist group known for its attacks against Pakistani security forces.

The findings of the report underscore the strengthening relationship between the Taliban and Al-Qaida, particularly with the latter’s regional affiliate in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). Despite Pakistan’s repeated requests to curb cross-border militant violence, the Taliban has maintained its support for TTP, with little response to Pakistan’s concerns.

According to the report, the Taliban’s assistance to TTP includes supplying weapons, equipment, and providing refuge to its members. Additionally, the Taliban’s relocation of TTP personnel away from border areas has been interpreted as a tactic to deflect pressure from Pakistan.

The UN report highlights the financial support provided to TTP by the de-facto Afghan authorities, with reports indicating a monthly allowance of over US$ 50,000 to TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud. Moreover, the emergence of Tehrik-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), operating from Afghan territory and possibly backed by Al-Qaida, adds to Pakistan’s security concerns.

TJP has claimed responsibility for several high-profile attacks against the Pakistani military, further exacerbating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The proliferation of weapons from stockpiles left by the US-led coalition after their withdrawal from Afghanistan has also contributed to the escalating violence.

The report mentions instances where Taliban commanders have provided significant quantities of weaponry to TTP, including sniper rifles and night vision equipment, enhancing the group’s lethality in attacks against Pakistani security forces.

However, the Taliban government spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, rejected the allegations made in the UN report, dismissing them as propaganda. Mujahid reiterated the Taliban’s commitment in preventing Afghanistan’s territory from being used against other countries, including Pakistan.

Despite the Taliban’s assurances, concerns persist regarding the resurgence of militant groups in Afghanistan and their potential to destabilize the region. The collaboration between Al-Qaida and TTP, coupled with the Taliban’s support, poses significant challenges to regional security and stability.

By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN

Introduction

Bangladesh 2024 election held on 07 January, resulted in the return of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for the fourth time straight term and fifth all over.  The Awami League (AL) got victory by winning 225 out of 300 seats. India welcomed the victory of Awami League on winning the 2024 election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted on ‘X’ to congratulate Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina that “We are committed to further strengthen our enduring and people-centric partnership with Bangladesh.”

In recent years Bangladesh has achieved significant economic growth under the leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. In 2020, United States committed to be “a key partner in the Indo-Pacific region” with Bangladesh. In 2022, Ito Naoki, the ambassador of Japan, said Bangladesh is a vital country in geopolitical terms. In 2022, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron visited Bangladesh to “consolidate” France’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. However, the Bangladesh 2024 election results have triggered protests and violence at many places in the country, leading to mass arrests and crackdown on the opposition. This has raised questions against the legitimacy and fairness of Awami league’s victory. It could also have geopolitical impact on Bangladesh’s balancing strategy, affecting the technological, economic, political, military and diplomatic relations throughout the fourth consecutive term of Sheikh Hasina.

Bilateral Relations of Bangladesh

Bangladesh has multiple diplomatic relations with many nations in the world including India, China, United States, Japan, among others with mutual benefits such an economy and defence. The biggest source of humanitarian aid for Bangladesh is Japan, looking forward to increase economic ties with Bangladesh as was confirmed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Japan in 2023 by three Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs). Similarly, Australia signed the Australia-Bangladesh Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement in 2021 to boost its trade with Bangladesh.

The geographical location of Bangladesh connects south Asia to Southeast Asia increasing its strategical importance in the Indo-Pacific region, especially to India. Since, India covers 4100 km of the border of Bangladesh and has illegal immigrants issue and Human Trafficking in states such as West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura. The majority of these migrants are the people from Rohingya because of Rohingya crisis in Myanmar. Bangladesh is trying to solve this illegal immigration issue, since India is a close neighbour and strategically powerful ally. India also has strategic impact due to Islamist extremist group probably of violence in the bordering states, although India supports the status quo and considers the ruling party in Bangladesh as an ally.

Maritime security is an important part of Bangladesh since 90% of their international trade is done through sea. Bay of Bengal is also considered to have gas reserves, which makes it a bigger challenge to Bangladesh. Bangladesh aims to coexist in the Indo-Pacific region with many multilateral partnerships for maritime security with peace and diplomacy. For instance, the maritime boundary resolution with India (2014) and Myanmar (2012), the Ganges water sharing agreement (1996), the Chittagong Hill Tracts Peace Accord (1997), and the Land Boundary Agreement with India (1974).

Bangladesh geographical location has strategic significance. China is trying to become globally stronger with the help of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and is developing multiple maritime projects with the help of Maritime Silk Road Initiative. For instance, in 2023, Sheikh Hasina inaugurated its first submarine base with the help of China. With Myanmar having political instabilities, Sri Lanka has a lot of debt with a weak army and navy compared to India and China, and India not having strong strategic relation with China, China has a chance of a foothold in the Bay of Bengal.

Bangladesh, being the second biggest defence customer of China, has strong strategic ties with China. China sees Bangladesh as a “strategic development partner” and has sought to build strong economic and defence relationship with Awami League government. China stated, on the occasion of 96th anniversary of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China, that both China and Bangladesh is looking forward to strengthen their military with peace and friendship. But because of dissatisfaction in arms deals with China, Bangladesh has many defence dials with India as well, worth US$500 million and both Bangladesh and India held fifth annual defence dialogue in 2023.

It is essential for India that Bangladesh has better relation with the United States, since America is an ally to India. If Bangladesh has better and stronger relation with China compared to India, it could have detrimental effect to India’s strategic defence. China also keeps warning Bangladesh against United States. Although Bangladesh has multiple ties with US as well with US being the biggest trading partner of Bangladesh. Bangladesh had US$ 7.8 billion trade ties in 2020, which kept increasing and becoming US$ 10.5 billion in 2021 and US$ 13 billion in 2022.

Impact of Bangladesh 2024 Election

The victory of the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resulted to a campaign of strikes, violence and protests in many places within the nation asking questions against the legitimacy of the ruling party and their politicians. Not only the opposition party but many other countries have expressed concerns about Bangladesh 2024 elections. For instance, United States of America says Bangladesh election is not free or fair and United Nation too has expressed concerns about violence and irregularities in the elections. However, against all violence and boycott from the main opposition party, the Awami League was triumphant in the 2024 elections.

As the Awami League has won the elections, they have promised to work on the development of the nations by implying “friendship to all, malice to none” policy, given by the father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has anticipated to work on democratic values, economic dynamism, multilateral engagement and upholding international law and institutions while protecting our national interests.

Bangladesh has to balance the diplomatic relations with both India and China since both the countries has grown their economical and defence rivalry within last few decades. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, winning the four consecutive victories in the Bangladesh elections, has been trying to balance the bilateral relation with many countries. Under Awami League, Bangladesh has balanced the international influence by making bilateral and multilateral partnership and receiving foreign aids all while trying to grow their economy and military defence. For instance, trade between India and Bangladesh was about US$ 15 Billion in 2022 and the trade between Bangladesh and China was near US$ 25 Billion in the same year. Bangladesh has been balancing economic and technological ties with both India and China such as Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor (BCIM), which has granted access of Mongla port to both countries.

The Awami League claims Bangladesh to be the second-largest economy in the entire South-Asia. Bangladesh has future planes for advanced technology development in semiconductors, artificial intelligence and renewable energy. According to the Awami League future plane of action, Bangladesh will become a near trillion-dollar economy by 2030, enhancing the regional economic balance and stability. The Awami League also working to solve the illegal immigration issue by repatriation of all displaced Rohingyas to Myanmar. Bangladesh, being a secular and democratic country, is also looking forward to fight terrorism or any extremist act.

On the contrary, according to the critique of opposition political party ‘Bangladesh Nationalist Party’ – (BNP), Bangladesh has lost respect not only nationally and internationally. The Bangladesh Nationalist party claims that the Awami League is corrupt and instead of securing foreign investment the Awami League has been busy fending off criticisms. This corruption led to violation of human rights, Bangladesh’s democracy and constitution resulting in sanctions from the international community. At the same time, Bangladesh’s economy also continues to deteriorate due to country’s political crisis. The Foreign exchange reserves have reduced to less than $ 20 bn USD simultaneously increasing the external debt on Bangladesh by $ 100 bn USD.

Conclusion

Both Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist party have opposite views on the each other. They both claim the other one to be irresponsible, corrupt and undiplomatic. Similarly, they both criticise each other by claiming that the country will lose its image and economic value in the opposition’s hand. According to Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, the government of Bangladesh is willing to eliminate anyone and anything if the government sees it as a threat. The government, military, and the law have become corrupt thought out the years. The political scenario of Bangladesh is violent and there seems less probabilities for the improvement anytime soon.

The balancing act of Bangladesh has served rather well for the nation to maintain its multilateral relations. Regardless of who comes in power, both Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist party claim to be committed to the development of the nation by the means of trade, defence and multilateral cooperation through peace and diplomacy. For the future, Bangladesh should continue its balancing act by improving relations with other nations through peace and diplomacy for technological, economic and military development.

By: Pinkle Gogoi, Research Analyst, GSDN

Introduction

The recent victory of Bhutan’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the National Assembly elections holds significant implications for the nation’s foreign policy, particularly its ties with India. Economic recovery took centre stage during the election campaign, with the PDP emphasizing a commitment to modernizing bilateral relations through investment and commercial ties with Indian cities like Mumbai and Bangalore.

The article discusses the evolving foreign policy dynamics, noting the shift in power from the outgoing Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) party to the PDP. Despite the economic focus of the election, cooperation with India remained a key theme among all major parties, with the Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT) party explicitly underlining the need for closer ties with New Delhi.

Historically, Bhutan has had to delicately balance relations with its large neighbours, particularly China and India. The 2017 Doklam standoff and subsequent developments in Bhutan-China boundary talks have added complexity to the diplomatic landscape. The article highlights the differing threat perceptions of Bhutan and India concerning China, with Bhutan primarily concerned about herders from the north swamping its remote hinterlands.

While Bhutan’s relations with China have intensified in recent years, its unique and trust-filled relationship with India has been sustained by regular high-level visits, dialogues, and socio-economic support. India has played a pivotal role in Bhutan’s economic development, particularly in the hydropower sector.

The article also discusses the potential opening of a Chinese embassy in Thimphu and its implications for India. It notes the delicate balance Bhutan maintains between its neighbors, guided by its sensitivity to India’s security concerns. The recent visit of Bhutan’s King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk to India in November 2023 set the stage for enhanced connectivity and economic cooperation between India and Bhutan.

The focus on improving India-Bhutan connectivity, the development of the first-ever rail connection between Bhutan’s Gelephu and Assam’s Kokrajhar, and the exploration of new avenues for economic and commercial ties were key outcomes of the royal visit. The article underscores that hydropower cooperation is likely to remain central to the India-Bhutan bilateral economic partnership.

As the newly-elected Tobgay government takes charge, the article anticipates a continuation of efforts to strengthen bilateral ties. It emphasizes the significance of ongoing projects and agreements, highlighting areas such as trade, technology, cross-border connectivity, and mutual investments. The Tobgay government is expected to seek additional funds from India for Bhutan’s economic stimulus package, maintaining a guided approach in pursuing relations with India.

Elections 2024

The runoff election held in Bhutan on January 09, 2024 resulted in Tshering Tobgay and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) claiming victory over their opponents. They defeated former bureaucrat Pema Chewang and the Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP).

The PDP secured a significant win, capturing 30 out of the 47 seats in the national legislature. The election saw the participation of 3.2 lakh out of the registered 5 lakh Bhutanese voters.

This victory comes after a primary election in November 2023, where three parties, including Lotay Tshering’s ruling centre-left Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa party, were ousted.

Tshering Tobgay, aged 58, is noted for his background as a conservationist and a former civil servant. He holds a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard University. Tobgay founded the liberal People’s Democratic Party in 2007 and had previously served as the prime minister from 2013 to 2018.

It will be interesting to observe the developments and policies that Tshering Tobgay and the PDP implement during their term in office.

The report highlights Bhutan’s democratic process as a promising and transparent model, contrasting it with the situations in neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh, where election fairness is often a subject of concern. Even after the incumbent’s removal in November, Bhutan maintained a peaceful political transition without reported crackdowns, violence, or imprisonment of opposition figures on politically motivated charges. 
Indeed, Bhutan’s transition from a monarchy to a parliamentary democracy in 2008 is a remarkable accomplishment. Despite retaining a symbolic role for the monarch, King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk, actual political authority lies with elected officials, reflecting the country’s commitment to democratic principles.

The evolution of Bhutan’s democratic system over the past 15 years is noteworthy. From the initial elections that featured only two competing parties, the recent runoff election involved five candidates. This growth in the number of candidates suggests a maturing democratic process and a broadening political landscape.

Furthermore, the shift in election dynamics is evident in the candidates’ engagement with specific promises and positions. In contrast to earlier elections, candidates in the recent race presented more defined stances, providing voters with a more nuanced and challenging decision-making process. This development signals the increased sophistication of Bhutan’s democratic framework and the growing engagement of both candidates and voters in the political process.

The continued progress of Bhutan’s democracy is a positive sign for the nation’s political development, showcasing a commitment to expanding political participation and fostering a genuinely competitive and vibrant democratic environment.

Economy

The backdrop of Bhutan’s recent election was marked by significant economic challenges. The nation’s tourism industry is grappling with the prolonged impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, and a staggering 29 percent youth unemployment rate adds to the economic woes. With over half of Bhutan’s population under 30 years old, classified as ‘youth,’ addressing youth unemployment becomes a critical concern.

Furthermore, data indicates that one in eight individuals in Bhutan is currently “struggling to meet their basic needs for food” and other essentials. Over the past five years, Bhutan’s GDP has shown sluggish growth, averaging around 1.7 percent. This economic stagnation has contributed to a surge in young people emigrating from Bhutan, seeking better opportunities, with destinations like Australia becoming increasingly popular.

The economic challenges present a complex backdrop for the recently elected Tshering Tobgay and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Their victory comes at a time when the country is grappling with the aftermath of the pandemic, high youth unemployment, and a slow GDP growth rate. Addressing these economic concerns is likely to be a priority for the new government as it takes office, with a focus on revitalizing key sectors and exploring strategies to retain and create opportunities for the youth population.

Geopolitical Implications

India remains a key player in Bhutan’s political and economic landscape, acting as the country’s largest donor and ally. The recent election victory of Tshering Tobgay and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) comes at a critical juncture as Bhutan faces economic challenges, with India expected to play a crucial role in the nation’s recovery.

India is actively involved in funding various infrastructure projects in Bhutan, with a newly announced railway project being among them. Bhutan, known for its untapped hydroelectric potential, presents an opportunity for collaboration with India, making it a potentially lucrative client.

Despite the strong ties between India and Bhutan, the region has been a stage for tensions involving China. The Doklam border region, claimed by both China and Bhutan, witnessed clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in 2017. Recent satellite photos released by India’s NDTV purportedly show a Chinese military presence on land claimed by Bhutan. Bhutan, while not maintaining formal diplomatic relations with China, engaged in joint cooperation with Beijing under the previous Prime Minister, Lotay Tshering. He signed a cooperation agreement in October 2023, outlining the responsibilities of a joint technical team in delineating the border between the two nations.

The article underscores the delicate geopolitical balance Bhutan must navigate, caught between the longstanding alliance with India and the complexities arising from its proximity to China. The evolving dynamics in the region will likely be a significant factor in shaping Bhutan’s foreign policy and economic strategies under the new government.

Conclusion

The recently elected Bhutan Prime Minister, Tshering Tobgay, is perceived as pro-India, marking a significant shift in the country’s political landscape and offering a boost to India’s strategic interests in the region. This contrast in diplomatic inclinations becomes crucial against the backdrop of recent tensions involving Bhutan and China.

Tobgay’s pro-India stance has been acknowledged by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who, extended his congratulations to Tobgay via Twitter (now X). In his tweet, Modi expressed his “heartiest congratulations” to Tobgay, referring to him as a friend, and conveyed anticipation for working together to strengthen the “unique ties of friendship and cooperation” between India and Bhutan.

The congratulatory message from Modi underscores the importance India places on fostering strong and cooperative relations with Bhutan under Tobgay’s leadership. As the geopolitical dynamics in the region continue to evolve, Tobgay’s pro-India position is likely to play a crucial role in shaping regional alliances and partnerships.

The article concludes by highlighting the potential collaborative efforts expected between India and Bhutan under Tobgay’s premiership, further solidifying the close friendship and cooperation that has long characterized the relationship between the two nations.

By: Ananya Sharma

Introduction

The rise of China as a regional hegemon in South Asia is an inevitability that cannot be ignored. China’s rich political and economic history has led to its establishment as a formidable force in the region. China’s presence in South Asia can be classified into four historic and distinctive phases (Godwin, 2019). The ancient phase saw an emphasis on trade, cultural exchange, and Buddhism studies. In the medieval phase, there was a development of Buddhist art, architecture, and technological advancements. During their remote phase, China distanced itself from South Asian affairs as European colonialism began to gain power in the region. However, the fourth phase was marked by a significant shift in China’s stance towards South Asia. During the Cold War, they actively supported socialist movements and saw themselves as leaders of the global communist movement, motivated in part to counter the influence of India and the Soviet Union. Presently, the People’s Republic of China is the second-largest economy in the world after the United States of America, and its current positioning in South Asia is characterized by opportunities, growth, competition, and tensions (Wright, 2020). This paper aims to explore the factors contributing to China’s rise as a regional power in South Asia, delving deeper into its political, economic, and strategic objectives. It will first delve into China’s growing presence in South Asia, in the economic, political and security spheres. It will then go on to discuss how countries in South Asia have responded to their rise using strategic alliances and partnerships. The final section will investigate the implications of China’s dominance in the region and finally offer some suggestions for the future.

It is important to understand the rise of China and its consequent impact on the regional order as it has significant implications for the balance of power in the region and gives an insight into the changing partnerships and alliances which will aid policymakers to anticipate potential conflicts, opportunities for cooperation and effective policies to manage China’s rise in the region.

China’s growing presence in South Asia

For a comprehensive understanding of China’s rising economic imprint in this region, one must have a clear grasp of South Asia’s geography. The South Asian Region (SAR) is formed by seven nations: Sri Lanka, India, China, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, and the Maldives. Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, and India all share a border with China. SAR has 22% of the global population and is currently the centre of middle-class expansion (Romi Jain, 2018). The U.S. has considerable economic and trading ties with South Asian nations, which enabled it to have a massive influence on regional affairs in South Asia (Saylor Academy, 2016).

Essentially every nation in South and Southeast Asia is now influenced by China’s presence. China has altered the power dynamics in the region by sponsoring infrastructure projects, developing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and fostering trade and investment ties (James McBride, Noah Berman, and Andrew Chatzky, 2023). The world economy’s centre of gravity has shifted to South Asia as a result of China’s resurgence as a significant economic force. China ranks first in economic relations and second in economic resources, which include variables like economic scale, international leverage, technology, and connectivity, according to the Asia Power Index, which analyses power in all possible fields (Romi Jain, 2018). China professes to be a regional “integrator,” which I feel has consequences. It has the authority to wield influence and generate interdependencies in the region. They have offered nations loans, grants, and technical assistance. The link between China and South Asian economies in terms of bilateral trade has never been better. Improved infrastructure and communication across the subcontinent have been promised by regional economic projects like the BRI. Countries, policymakers, and critics disagree, arguing that once their interests are served, they will no longer act in the country’s best interests (Grossman, 2020).

Although China approaches SAR nations differently, it pursues the same eventual outcome. They would be dependent on China. Links between China and these nations go back to the cold war, as seen most prominently by its “all-weather” alliance with Pakistan. They provided military equipment, assisted in the development of nuclear weapons, and aided them in all confrontations on Indian and Chinese border crossings. Nevertheless, with the developing friendship between India and the United States, both China and Pakistan have agreed to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is the foundation of BRI. The goal of CPEC is to link Western China and Western Pakistan. This will alleviate China’s ‘Malacca Dilemma,’ as they will be the greatest consumer of energy by 2023 (Singh, 2018).

Nepal, another nation in the area, has joined the BRI. According to the website of the Nepalese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “The Chinese support to Nepal is divided into three categories: grants (free aid), interest-free loans, and concessional loans… Upper Trishuli Hydropower Project- Power Station and Transmission Line Projects (Concessional Loan); food/material aid (Grant) in 15 bordering districts of northern Nepal; Kathmandu Ring Road Development Project with Flyover Bridges – (Grant); and Pokhara International Regional Airport (Loan) are some of the key ongoing projects under Chinese help” (Romi Jain, 2018). China has also obliged Bangladesh, a low-income nation in SAR. They have been yearning for infrastructure such as roads and bridges. and power – projects. With weak institutions and poor infrastructure, they find it tough to find a grounding in the developed world. China has come to Bangladesh’s rescue which they have eagerly accepted (Romi Jain, 2018).

Traditionally, India dominated the region, but it failed to match the expectations of the countries in the region. However, China is cultivating goodwill among the SAR nations by offering aid and material assistance to them. This is a means of limiting India’s presence on the subcontinent. China’s BRI programme offers infrastructural connections spanning Asia, Africa, Europe, and South Asia. China has completed BRI projects in Sri Lanka, which has increased the country’s electrical supplies. From 2016 and 2018, Pakistan and Bangladesh were the leading receivers of Chinese investment. Yet not all nations in the area support the BRI programme and have reservations about the additional help that China so generously provides. In contrast to Bhutan and India which have not joined the BRI (Jacob, 2019).

The BRI projects will have the same negative effects on the region, despite their promises of improved connectivity, increased commerce, economic growth, and connectedness. The effort, for instance, has drawn criticism for harming the environment. Several nations worry that they may fall prey to “debt trap diplomacy”, which refers to China’s strategy of using debt to further its geopolitical objectives (World Bank Group, 2019). Dept trap diplomacy has been seen in Sri Lanka with the Hambantota Port, the apprehension of other countries with context to this seems legit. Even though there isn’t much literature that proves that debt-trapping countries are China’s hidden intentions, there are multiple case studies that support this theory. Security considerations are a significant issue with this endeavour. The BRI is unpopular in India since it crosses through its territory, Gilgit-Baltistan. Militants have targeted and even killed Chinese workers who had been in Pakistan. I believe that another downfall of this project could be that a lot of countries will be forced to be at China’s whim in the biggest project they undertake. Notwithstanding, China faces numerous issues with this project. In my opinion, this project that is driving China to seize control and alter the regional order in SAR is the BRI effort (Awasthi, 2018).

Responses to China’s rise in South Asia

Recently, Sino-Indian undercurrents have become widespread. The Act East Policy became the foundation of Indian foreign policy after 2014, giving it fresh life. The reactions to China’s growing influence have been varied. Some nations have embraced China’s investments, while others are acting on the other end of the spectrum to balance their strength.

With the Cold War’s historical context and India’s growing proximity to the US, China felt endangered. Yet nothing in international relations is static. India has always had a multipolar vision of Asia. Following 2014, the Modi government expanded bilateral and multilateral relations with ASEAN since they shared the same goal. India and China have been at odds over several topics, including the Nuclear Suppliers Group, CPEC, and the Line of Actual Control conflict. Nonetheless, India is now a component of all existing South Asian platforms. ASEAN countries expect India to strengthen the region and act as a counterweight to China. Myanmar and Australia have also been included in Act East Policy. India has adopted a strong stance in the conflict over the South China Sea. The bilateral ties between India and Japan are another alliance that keeps Beijing on its toes. With their rise, India and Japan have altered the regional security system (Sujan R. Chinoy, 2020). This will guarantee that Asia stays multipolar. Vietnam and India have improved their ties. Vietnamese ports in the contentious South China Sea have been made available to Indian ships. Indonesia has presented China with one of its most difficult challenges. The dilemma of Malacca. Indonesia has made it clear that if the Malacca strait falls into the hands of unfriendly players, China would be deprived of its oil source. India and Indonesia enjoy friendly maritime ties. Indonesia has granted India access to this port as part of its overall commercial infrastructure development. China is hence quite worried. The Malaysian Prime Minister has ordered a reassessment of all 3 key Chinese projects in the nation, anticipating that they would not provide the advantages promised. This indicates the fear of countries vis-a-vis China’s “aid”. Myanmar contributes significantly to the power balance as well. To establish its influence in the Bay of Bengal, China seized key areas of the peninsula. Myanmar’s new leadership has resulted in strengthened relations with India. India and Australia have joined hands to contain China’s overarching presence in the region. India is a part of QUAD, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue has improved defence cooperation between member countries, primarily, India Australia Japan and the US (Erik Brattberg, Philippe Le Corre, 2019).  The securitization of the QUAD makes China uneasy. Improved Indo-US relations over the past few years have empowered India to be a worthy balancing muscle against China. The Communication, Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCSA) became the prime outcome between India and the United States. The US has encouraged India’s presence in the Indo – Pacific, and the two countries have conducted tri-services exercises. The Indo – Pacific has also given India and Japan a good opportunity to contain China’s dominance. The alliances formed in SAR are majorly in response to China’s rise. India from their ‘non-aligned’ stance has turned to be more proactive. India and China have tried to establish bilateral relations, PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping have met numerous times – yet their relations seem more to be driven by insecurity and competition than cooperation. This has curtailed full growth for the region. Sino – Pak relations are detrimental to India, and the growing closeness of Indo – US relations pushes China and Pakistan closer (Singh, 2018). Countries have managed to form meaningful alliances and strategic partnerships to boost infrastructural development, strengthen their military capabilities, and increase trade. These partnerships and alliances are attributed to a response to China’s rise. In my opinion, this serves two main purposes for the region; first, if countries focus on further strengthening these ties, it could empower countries making them less dependent on China which also allows them to be completely sovereign to make political decisions that are fully in favour of their country and not influenced by anyone else. Second, strategic partnerships in the region can also act as a balancing factor towards western hegemony.

Implications for the regional order in South Asia

China’s growing influence has impacted the regional order in innumerable ways. Implications of the same could be broadly divided into 5 categories. First, the economic impact, which in my opinion is the most evident. BRI and other investments made by China in South Asian countries, as discussed above can translate into development for the region, however, it raises economic concerns for smaller nations such as unequal power dynamics, corruption, and debt sustainability. The security impact of the expansion of China’s military powers and assertiveness is a big implication for the regional order. Their growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean has made India fear a potential strategic encirclement. China has also phenomenally increased its involvement with the countries in SAR, this is a diplomatic impact that comes hand in hand with the rise of China (Art, 2010). Their primary motivation remains to underpin India’s dominance in the region. Which has resulted in closer ties between India, Japan, and the US. Counterbalancing China’s rise on the contrary is what brings historic rivals together. Another factor that plays up in these power equations is China’s unflinching support towards Pakistan, this political implication suggests, China’s support for authoritarian regimes that undermines democratic institutions in the region. The environmental impact that infrastructural projects taken on by China has raised questions, rightfully so, about environmental degradation, particularly in the areas such as the Himalayas and the Brahmaputra Basin. All these factors mentioned above play a huge role in changing the Balance of power dynamics in the region. Indo – China competition stands at the centre of all these factors. In my opinion, smaller states could benefit from this rivalry, they could empower themselves, however, the chance of getting crushed if a full-blown conflict ever broke out it would paralyse their functioning. Hence, self-sufficiency should be the end goal for them. They need to tactfully establish their relations with both India and China. China’s debt diplomacy as discussed earlier has also been a significant implication for the regional order. Sri Lanka and Maldives have faced the brunt of it, and many others fear the same (Brian Lee Crowley and Shuvaloy Majumdar and David McDonough, 2017).

In this final section, I would like to discuss the potential for conflict and cooperation in the region. The rising influence of China has very evidently made the region a perfect breeding ground for both cooperation and conflict. The first potential conflict would be between India and Pakistan. China’s military, political and economic aid to Pakistan is a major bone of contention between India and China. The CPEC passing through the disputed territory of Kashmir is a huge security concern for India. China blocked India’s move to declare Maulana Azhar a global terrorist, this is because China needs Islamabad’s help in quelling the terror network in the western province of Xingjian. Another potential conflict is the escalation of the LAC dispute between India and China. The Chinese military has shown aggression in the past which was responded to by the Indian Army with equal force. These escalations can further into full-blown conflicts if the two big powers in the region don’t resort to cooperating with one another (David M. Malone, 2010).

Keeping that in mind, there also have been attempts to bolster cooperation in the region. India and China have met at numerous international forums and multilateral organizations like the BRICS group, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). India and China are part of these organizations intending to promote economic cooperation, conjoining in the domain of security and the cultural sphere. However, the tensions in my opinion currently outweigh the cooperative measures that are undertaken. The two countries must share a common vision and need to be less insecure about each other’s presence in the region for true cooperation and growth to occur.

Conclusion

The regional order has been significantly impacted by China’s ascent in South Asia. China has resorted to using a variety of methods to increase its influence in the area. The driving forces behind this expansion have been economic might, border militarization, and infrastructure development. China has recently grown increasingly forceful and hostile, which has had a significant impact on the SAR. The growing competition between India and China, which drives the South Asian narrative, is one of the most significant shifts in the area. China now totally succeeds India as the main power in the area, which it previously held. The path involves CPEC, financial aid, and assisting smaller nations in developing infrastructure. adopted by China to amplify its hegemony. I think China will continue to take an aggressive approach in this region in order to further its geopolitical goals in the future. It won’t let India make a declaration of supremacy. Having said that, India and many other countries like Bhutan, Vietnam, and Indonesia in the region and coming together to counterbalance China’s position. One such potent illustration is the Malacca Strait dilemma. Future issues will arise for China if its stance incites hostility among the region’s nations. When it comes to security, China needs to be more sympathetic to India’s attitude towards Kashmir if it wants to create a constructive partnership. Now, India sees it as a tremendous violation of its national sovereignty. South Asia is not yet a unipolar zone. China’s supremacy is actively being restrained by international groups like SAARC, ASEAN, and SCO. It is critical to keep in mind that China’s growing influence in South Asia extends beyond only economic and military considerations and encompasses soft power operations as well. China has been pushing its media, language, and culture there, which has allowed it to establish a presence and win over the hearts and minds of the populace. For India, which has always possessed a cultural and linguistic edge in the area, this has posed a serious issue. India must increase its efforts to market its soft power assets and forge closer cultural and academic linkages with the nations of South Asia if it is to compete with China in this area. India can only expect to offset China’s increasing influence in the world by achieving this. However, to promote a brighter future for the region, India and China need to function cohesively, and they need to strengthen their economic ties. Asia can emerge as a force to reckon on the global stage if both countries, engage in producing meaningful outcomes. This can be possible through better diplomatic efforts, and confidence-building measures such as humanitarian aid, cultural exchange etc. Capitalising on shared interests such as making Asia the new epicentre of the world economy and boosting growth by helping smaller nations develop sustainably could be another way forward. China and India need to address the imbalances caused by the reasons mentioned above for a brighter future for the region of South Asia.

By: Darshan Gajjar, Research Analyst, GSDN

The year 2024 is the year of elections, with over 50 countries going to vote in their respective polls, the biggest test of democracy so far. The most notable of them would be those in the US, the UK, and India. As of January 20, 2024 we already saw the conclusion of the general elections in Bangladesh, with incumbent Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League securing the majority, and on the small island of Taiwan, where the current Vice-President and Presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Mr Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, swept the polls.

While the Bangladesh elections were instrumental in deciding the future of the country in the face of rising extremism in the domestic society, the elections in Taiwan have global geopolitical implications. Let us examine how the victory of the DPP in Taiwan can affect the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific and can potentially lead to another Taiwan Strait crisis.

Victory of the Democratic Progressive Party

Before going into the geopolitical intricacies of this election, let us first analyse the victory of the DPP in electoral terms and when the new president can likely take over the reign of Taipei. On January 13, 2024 along with the elections of the legislature, the presidential elections were also held in the island of Taiwan. As mentioned earlier, William Lai of the DPP swept the polls, securing 40.1% of the votes, defeating Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), both of whom secured 33.5% and 26.5% of the votes, respectively.

Though William Lai is all set to become the next president of the Republic of China (official name of Taiwan), his party, the DPP, fell short of the majority in the country’s legislature, getting only 51 seats out of 113. By contrast, the KMT was able to secure 52 seats, the TPP 8 seats, and independent candidates two seats, making it difficult for the new president to drive his legislative agenda.

China’s Reaction to This Elections

Citizens of democracies love elections, for periodic elections give them an opportunity to decide who will lead their government, giving them influential power in deciding the fate of their country. Conversely, tyrannical regimes despise elections because they don’t want people to interfere in deciding who governs the country.

When elections happen in Taiwan, it is obvious for totalitarian China to oppose them not only for historical reasons but also for ideological and political reasons. We shall come to historical linkages in a later part of this piece, but for now, let us see how China responded politically and diplomatically to the election in Taiwan.

Just days after the results of the election were announced, China conducted joint combat patrols around Taiwan, a sign of deep discontent against William Lai. China preferred to have the KMT government in Taiwan, which is at this time sympathetic to the current ruling CCP on mainland China, instead of William Lai’s DPP, who is considered to be a China hawk and whom China called a separatist and is well known for his pro-democracy and anti-China stance.

Further, China has started diplomatic efforts to make sure countries around the world do not take cognizance of the Taiwanese polls because China considers Taiwan to be a part of the PRC. Two Southeast Asian countries, Singapore and the Philippines, which congratulated the Taiwanese new president, faced a strong diplomatic reaction from the Chinese foreign ministry, with it even making solemn démarches to Singapore.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said, “On behalf of the Filipino people, I congratulate President-elect Lai Ching-te on his election as Taiwan’s next President. We look forward to close collaboration, strengthening mutual interests, fostering peace, and ensuring prosperity for our peoples in the years ahead.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, in response retaliated by telling Philippines against interfering in China’s internal affairs, even stating, “We would like to make it clear to the Philippines that it should refrain from playing with fire on the Taiwan question.” Defence Secretary of the Philippines Gilberto Teodoro Jr. retorted by accusing China of stooping to “low and gutter-level talk.”

Historical Background and Chinese Anxiety vis-à-vis Taiwan

In January of 1912, a few years before the commencement of the great war (World War I), the collapse of the Qing dynasty in October 1912 after more than 250 years of imperial rule, followed by the Xinhai Revolution, led to the establishment of the Republic of China (ROC). Then, revolutionary leader Sun Yat-sen was elected as the first provisional president of the ROC. Although Sun Yat-sen tried to establish a centralised governance system, eventually the ROC was fragmented, with regional warlords controlling different parts of the country.

The warlord rule in China coincided with the end of World War I and the signing of the famous Treaty of Versailles, which surrendered German control areas of China to Japan instead of reinstating them with China. The student movement started on May 4, 1919 famously known as the May Fourth Movement, under the influence of which China refused to sign the Treaty of Versailles. In the aftermath of this movement, the Kuomintang (KMT) was established on October 10, 1919 and the Communist Party of China was founded in July 1921.

Initially, both parties worked together in what historians call a northern expedition that aimed at freeing China from warlords and unifying it, however, the differences between both parties since 1927 resulted in the Chinese Civil War. Though both parties collaborated during World War II against imperial Japan, after World War II, the struggle for power continued.

One by one, the CCP strengthened its hold on mainland China, eventually exiling the KMT and its leader, Chiang Kai-shek, to the small island of Formosa, now known as Taiwan. The Chinese Revolution in 1949 established the People’s Republic of China, which claimed to be the sole representative of the Chinese people. In the initial years, western countries, especially America, denied recognising Mao’s China, but with the passing years and the convergence of interests during the Cold War, Americans forced themselves to work with the PRC to weaken the overall sphere of influence of the erstwhile Soviet Union.

China promotes what it calls the One China Policy, under which it claims that there is only one China in the world, and that is the People’s Republic of China, led by the CCP, and Taiwan, though has autonomy in administration and in governance, is also part of mainland China.

Taiwan’s Journey Ahead and Challenges for Mr. William Lai

From time to time, Chinese leaders, from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping, have reiterated their stance to reunify Taiwan with mainland China. Further, nationalist Chinese hawks often called for the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland. In 2022, during a major party meeting, President Xi stated, “We insist on striving for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and best efforts, but we will never promise to give up the use of force and reserve the option to take all necessary measures,” signalling the possibility of a ground invasion of the island.

In the face of evident Chinese ambitions, Washington, too, is determined to secure Taiwan from any Chinese military aggression. President Biden stated in 2022, in this context, that the U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, a clear shift from its position of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan. William Lai, who is already being portrayed as the pro-independence and anti-China president, has to sail carefully amid this great power politics.

It will be interesting to see if William Lai successfully negotiates with America the deal, which the Biden administration already rejected earlier, to procure anti-submarine helicopters, which will help it deter China in the maritime domain. Additionally, it is very unlikely that the legislature, in which the opposition KMT holds the majority of seats, can approve an additional increase in the defence budget, making his agenda repugnant.

Another such critical sector is the semiconductor chip industry in Taiwan, in which the country is a leading manufacturer. Mr. Lai has promised continuous support to the chip-making industry of the country, which is not only instrumental for Taiwan but also for the entire globe due to the heavy demand for its chips in the global electronics and computer markets.

With the US being engaged in proxy wars in eastern Europe and west Asia, in addition to growing domestic discontent against President Xi in China, the possibility of a ground invasion of Taiwan cannot be denied. In the near future, the new president has to take decisions that make it possible to deter such aggressions not only militarily but also economically and ideologically.

By: Deeplaxmi Patil, Research Analyst, GSDN

Introduction

The rise of right-wing politics globally has become a significant challenge to democratic societies, with various countries experiencing an upsurge in right-wing extremist ideas and groups. This phenomenon is characterised by the dissemination of divisive and hateful ideologies, often facilitated by modern communication tools, such as social media platforms. The evolving nature of these ideologies and their means of distribution underscores the need for coordinated international efforts to address the growing threat.

The post-9/11 era, initially dominated by the global war on terror, witnessed the emergence and spread of right-wing extremism as a parallel threat. While the focus was on groups like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, right-wing extremism gained traction globally. Social media played a crucial role in connecting like-minded individuals across geographical boundaries, enabling the exchange of ideas, and fostering the growth of right-wing movements. Europe, historically familiar with right-wing ideologies, experienced a surge in the 2010s. Factors such as increased immigration from Muslim countries, movement within the European Union, and the mainstreaming of far-right ideas by populist politicians contributed to the rise.

The mainstreaming of right-wing ideologies within political parties and among politicians became a concerning trend in the 2000s. Leaders like Viktor Orban in Hungary incorporated anti-immigrant and exclusionary narratives into their political agendas. Orban’s actions, including undermining democracy and suppressing dissent, led to public protests.

Jair Bolsonaro’s ascent to the presidency in Brazil in 2018-2019 showcased the continued emergence of right-wing extremism. Bolsonaro’s campaign advocated for a return to Brazil’s perceived glory through attacks on institutions, minorities, and violence against various groups. His endorsement of Trump further illustrates the interconnectedness of global right-wing movements.

The rise of right-wing politics globally has marked a notable shift in geopolitical dynamics. Fuelled by factors such as economic inequality, immigration concerns, and a backlash against globalisation, right-wing movements have gained traction in various regions. This shift often manifests in nationalist ideologies, emphasising protectionist policies and a focus on national identity.

Geopolitically, this trend has implications for international relations. Some right-wing leaders adopt an assertive and isolationist stance, challenging existing alliances and fostering a more transactional approach to diplomacy. Multilateral institutions face scrutiny, with a preference for bilateral agreements. The rise of right-wing governments has also led to increased emphasis on sovereignty, impacting global cooperation on issues like climate change and human rights.

Furthermore, these movements may contribute to a more polarized international system, with nations aligning based on shared ideological values. This polarization can complicate diplomatic efforts and potentially lead to increased geopolitical tensions. The impact of right-wing politics varies across countries, and not all movements share identical ideologies. Nonetheless, the global rise of right-wing politics introduces complex challenges to the established geopolitical order, influencing international cooperation and reshaping alliances

Right Wing Politics in Europe and Americas

The rise of right-wing politics globally represents a complex and multifaceted phenomenon, with distinct regional variations. The provided data highlights that this trend is not universal, as some major democracies, such as Germany and the United States, are currently led by centre-left governments. Nevertheless, the overarching pattern suggests a growing inclination towards right-wing populism, characterized by distrust of liberal democratic institutions.

One prominent aspect of this trend is the erosion of confidence in key pillars of liberal democracy, including fair elections, an unbiased media, religious tolerance, and political pluralism. Populist leaders often challenge these foundations, contributing to a sense of uncertainty and instability. The comparison to the early 1930s, a period marked by the rise of authoritarianism, emphasizes the potential threat to democratic norms and values.

In Europe, the data points to a surge in right-wing populist movements. Italy’s Prime Minister, Georgia Melon, associated with movements seeking to resurrect Italian fascism, underscores the shift towards more conservative ideologies. In Hungary and Poland, where democratic traditions may be less deeply rooted due to Soviet domination, hard-right influences have been present for some time. The rise of Marine Le Pen in France and the substantial presence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the German parliament further illustrate the increasing influence of right-wing politics across the continent.

Scandinavia, traditionally a model of political moderation, is not immune to this global trend. The rise of right-wing populists in Sweden and Finland suggests a departure from the region’s historical political landscape.

The diversity within right-wing movements is highlighted, with some primarily driven by nationalism, others by racist or reactionary ideologies, and yet others being Eurosceptics seeking to emulate the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. This heterogeneity makes it challenging to define a cohesive political group but emphasizes a common thread of scepticism towards liberal democratic principles.

The recent victory of Milei’s government in Argentina underlines that the appeal of populism extends beyond Europe, persisting in Latin America. This region, with a history of maverick political leaders, continues to be susceptible to populist influences. The economic challenges faced by Argentina further indicate that populist movements can gain traction during periods of crisis.

The global impact of Donald Trump’s election in 2016 is a significant catalyst for the rise of populism. Trump’s presidency served as a model for other right-wing leaders worldwide, inspiring, and emboldening movements that challenge established democratic norms.

In summary, the rise of right-wing politics globally is a complex and varied phenomenon with regional nuances. While some democracies maintain centre-left leadership, a pervasive trend towards right-wing populism is evident, posing challenges to the foundations of liberal democracy. The diverse nature of these movements underscores the importance of analysing each case individually while recognizing common threads of scepticism towards democratic institutions.

Geopolitical Implications of Right-Wing Politics

Shift in Alliances: Right-wing leaders often pursue a more unilateral and nationalist approach, leading to shifts in traditional alliances. This can create uncertainties and reshape geopolitical dynamics as countries reassess their partnerships.

Trade Policies: Right-wing movements tend to emphasize protectionist trade policies, challenging the existing global economic order. Trade tensions and the renegotiation of agreements can impact international commerce and disrupt established economic relationships.

Nationalism and Isolationism: Right-wing ideologies often prioritize national interests and may advocate for isolationist policies. This can result in reduced cooperation on global issues, hindering collective efforts to address challenges such as climate change and pandemics.

Impact on International Institutions: Right-wing movements may express scepticism or opposition to international institutions. This challenges the effectiveness of organizations like the United Nations and the European Union, potentially weakening their ability to address global issues through multilateral cooperation.

Migration and Border Policies: The rise of right-wing politics is often associated with stricter immigration policies. This can strain relations between countries and contribute to geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions dealing with migration challenges.

Human Rights Concerns: Some right-wing governments have faced criticism for their stance on human rights. This can strain diplomatic relations and influence global perceptions of the commitment to democratic values and individual freedoms.

Regional Stability: Right-wing movements may impact regional stability by influencing regional conflicts or exacerbating existing tensions. Their approach to diplomacy and security issues can have ripple effects on neighbouring nations.

Ideological Polarization: The global rise of right-wing politics contributes to ideological polarization, with countries aligning based on shared values. This can lead to increased diplomatic friction and hinder coordinated responses to shared challenges.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the geopolitical implications of the rise in right-wing politics are complex and multifaceted, affecting international relations, trade, cooperation on global issues, and the stability of regions around the world. To effectively combat the global rise of right-wing extremism, the importance of international cooperation is significant. Building coalitions and leveraging multilateral organizations are proposed as essential strategies to address the transnational nature of the threat. As democratic societies grapple with the implications of these ideologies, collaboration becomes a crucial tool in preserving equality, the rule of law, an inclusive civil society, and respect for human rights on a global scale.